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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Stock Analysis

TechnologyEnterprise Software & Cloud Computing
$367.34as of 2026-06-22

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
58
Moderate
Price CAGR
23.4%
1Y Return
-20.5%
Analyst Upside
+48.0%
Rev Growth
18.3%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$366.31-0.3% potential
Bear Case
$233.13
Bull Case
$582.13
Model Confidence90%

BriMind AI combines DCF, momentum, and analyst consensus to project a 12-month price target.

About Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is the world's largest software company, operating across cloud computing (Azure), productivity software (Microsoft 365), gaming (Xbox, Activision Blizzard), professional networking (LinkedIn), and enterprise solutions. Azure is the second-largest cloud platform globally and a primary beneficiary of enterprise AI adoption through the OpenAI partnership and Copilot product suite.

How Microsoft Makes Money

Microsoft generates revenue across three segments: Intelligent Cloud (Azure, server products — ~43% of revenue), Productivity & Business Processes (Office 365, LinkedIn, Dynamics — ~33%), and More Personal Computing (Windows, Xbox, Surface, Search — ~24%). The business model has shifted to recurring subscriptions and consumption-based cloud, with 70%+ gross margins across the enterprise.

Microsoft Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how Microsoft's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$318.27B
Cost of Revenue
-$100.86B
Gross Profit
$217.41B68.3% margin
Operating Expenses
-$69.97B
Operating Income
$147.44B46.3% margin
Tax & Other
-$22.23B
Net Income
$125.21B39.3% margin
Gross Margin
68.3%
Operating Margin
46.3%
Net Margin
39.3%
EBITDA Margin
58.0%

Key Financial Metrics

A snapshot of the company's valuation, growth, profitability, and financial health. Key things to look at: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business — companies with strong FCF can buy back shares, pay dividends, or invest; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged the company is (high debt can be risky); Return on Equity tells you how efficiently the company generates profit from shareholders' money.

Market Cap
$2.82T
Enterprise Value
$3.39T
P/E (Trailing)
22.57
P/E (Forward)
19.61
PEG Ratio
1.39
EV / EBITDA
18.39
Price / Sales
11.87
Price / Book
8.07
Revenue
$318.27B
Revenue Growth
18.3%
Earnings Growth
23.4%
EBITDA
$184.46B
EPS (Trailing)
$16.79
EPS (Forward)
$19.34
Gross Margin
68.3%
Operating Margin
46.3%
Net Margin
39.3%
Return on Equity
34.0%
Return on Assets
14.8%
Free Cash Flow
$37.01B
Total Cash
$78.23B
Total Debt
$125.43B
Debt / Equity
30.27
Current Ratio
1.28
Quick Ratio
1.14
Beta
1.10
Dividend Yield
1.0%
Payout Ratio
20.7%
Insider Ownership
0.1%
Inst. Ownership
75.7%
Short % Float
1.0%
Book Value / Share
$55.78

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Professional analysts at investment banks set 12-month price targets after researching the company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends. Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside. Hold means analysts see fair value near the current price — not a sell signal, but limited near-term upside expected. The mean target is the average of all analyst price targets; the range shows where the most optimistic and most cautious analysts stand.

Consensus RatingStrong Buy(54 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$400.008.9%
Mean Target$561.39+52.8% upside
High Target$870.00+136.8%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for MSFT

Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. We use multiple models because no single formula is perfect: each captures different aspects of a business. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal. A stock trading well below its intrinsic value may be a bargain; one far above may carry more risk.

Graham Number
$145.16
-60.5% vs current
Benjamin Graham's formula: √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value). A conservative floor value for stable, profitable companies. Works best for value-oriented businesses.
DCF Model (10yr)
$104.63
-71.5% vs current
Discounts 10 years of projected free cash flow back to today's dollars (5% growth, 10% discount rate). Best for companies generating consistent cash.
P/E Based (15× trailing)
$251.85
-31.4% vs current
Multiplies trailing 12-month earnings per share by 15× — a historically average P/E for the stock market. Simple but ignores future growth.
P/E Based (15× forward)
$290.07
-21.0% vs current
Multiplies next year's estimated earnings per share by 15×. More forward-looking; useful for high-growth companies where current earnings understate potential.
Fair Value Range
$104.63 – $290.07
Average Estimate
$197.93
Potential Downside
-46.1%

⚠️ Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

MSFT Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

Every investment has two sides. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks that could cause the investment to underperform. Good investors read both sides carefully before deciding. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • Azure is the #2 cloud platform growing 30%+ annually, directly benefiting from enterprise AI workload migration and OpenAI partnership.
  • Copilot AI monetization across Microsoft 365, GitHub, and Dynamics adds $30+/user/month premium — a massive TAM expansion on the existing installed base.
  • Activision Blizzard acquisition creates the third-largest gaming company globally, adding ~$8B in annual revenue and diversifying the business.
  • 95%+ commercial cloud renewal rates demonstrate extreme stickiness — once enterprises adopt Azure + M365, they rarely leave.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • Capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is enormous ($50B+ annually) with uncertain near-term returns — investors are funding the AI buildout on faith.
  • Cloud growth deceleration is inevitable as Azure matures; the question is whether AI workloads can offset the natural slowdown.
  • Antitrust scrutiny over the OpenAI partnership and cloud bundling practices could result in structural remedies.
  • Premium valuation (30x+ forward P/E) prices in near-perfect execution on AI monetization.

What to Watch: MSFT Key Metrics

Azure revenue growth rate
Microsoft 365 commercial seat growth
Copilot adoption metrics
Cloud gross margins
Capital expenditure trend

MSFT Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

Compare MSFT with Peers

AAPL vs MSFTApple vs Microsoft — Which Is the Better Buy?
MSFT vs GOOGLMicrosoft vs Google — Which AI Giant Wins?
AMZN vs MSFTAmazon vs Microsoft — Which Cloud Giant Is the Better B
ZM vs MSFTZoom vs Microsoft — Video Collaboration Challenger vs T
MSFT vs AMZNMicrosoft vs Amazon — Azure vs AWS: Which Cloud Giant W
MSFT vs ORCLMicrosoft vs Oracle — Cloud Powerhouse vs Database-to-C
MSFT vs METAMicrosoft vs Meta — Copilot AI Suite vs Open-Source Lla
MSFT vs GOOGMicrosoft Azure vs Google Cloud — Enterprise AI Cloud G

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