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Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Analysis 2026

RetailGeneral Merchandise & Discount Retail
$149.35as of 2026-08-03

BriMind AI Score

Proprietary
41
Neutral
Price CAGR
9.7%
1Y Return
+44.8%
Analyst Upside
-6.3%
Rev Growth
6.7%

Score based on historical price CAGR, revenue growth, analyst upside, and valuation factors. Updated daily.

BriMind 1-Year Price Target

$193.08+29.3% potential
Bear Case
$110.95
Bull Case
$218.59
Model Confidence90%

BriMind AI combines DCF, momentum, and analyst consensus to project a 12-month price target.

AI scores and price targets are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer →

About Target Corporation

Target is a leading US general merchandise retailer operating 1,950+ stores that blend the value of discount retail with curated, on-trend merchandise. Target differentiates from Walmart through design-forward owned brands (Cat & Jack, Good & Gather, Threshold), a more upscale shopping experience, and strong same-day fulfillment capabilities. The company's stores double as fulfillment centers for online orders, enabling same-day delivery, pickup, and Drive Up — a competitive advantage over pure e-commerce players.

How Target Makes Money

Target earns from product sales across five categories: beauty and household essentials (~30%), food and beverage (~23%), apparel and accessories (~16%), home furnishings (~15%), and hardlines/electronics (~16%). Digital sales represent 18%+ of revenue, with 95%+ of digital orders fulfilled from stores. Target's owned brands generate higher margins (30%+ gross margin vs 20-25% for national brands) and represent ~30% of total sales.

Target Revenue & Profitability Breakdown

This chart shows how Target's revenue flows through to profit. Each row deducts a layer of costs: first the direct cost of making products/services (Cost of Revenue), then operating expenses like marketing and R&D, then taxes. What remains at the bottom is net income — the actual profit shareholders own. High gross and net margins indicate a business with strong pricing power and efficiency.

Revenue
$106.38B
Cost of Revenue
-$76.44B
Gross Profit
$29.93B28.1% margin
Operating Expenses
-$25.13B
Operating Income
$4.81B4.5% margin
Tax & Other
-$1.36B
Net Income
$3.45B3.2% margin
Gross Margin
28.1%
Operating Margin
4.5%
Net Margin
3.2%
EBITDA Margin
8.5%

Key Financial Metrics

A snapshot of the company's valuation, growth, profitability, and financial health. Key things to look at: P/E ratio measures how much you pay for $1 of earnings (lower = cheaper, but fast-growing companies command higher P/E); Free Cash Flow is the cash left after running the business — companies with strong FCF can buy back shares, pay dividends, or invest; Debt/Equity shows how leveraged the company is (high debt can be risky); Return on Equity tells you how efficiently the company generates profit from shareholders' money.

Market Cap
$63.41B
Enterprise Value
$60.79B
P/E (Trailing)
19.09
P/E (Forward)
16.15
EV / EBITDA
6.78
Price / Sales
0.42
Price / Book
2.96
Revenue
$106.38B
Revenue Growth
6.7%
Earnings Growth
-24.7%
EBITDA
$8.96B
Gross Margin
28.1%
Operating Margin
4.5%
Net Margin
3.2%
Return on Equity
22.0%
Return on Assets
5.7%
Free Cash Flow
$3.14B
Total Cash
$2.89B
Total Debt
$19.46B
Debt / Equity
117.55
Current Ratio
0.93
Quick Ratio
0.18
Beta
0.98
Dividend Yield
3.2%
Payout Ratio
60.0%
Book Value / Share
$36.10

Wall Street Analyst Consensus

Professional analysts at investment banks set 12-month price targets after researching the company's earnings, competitive position, and industry trends. Strong Buy / Buy means the majority expect meaningful upside. Hold means analysts see fair value near the current price — not a sell signal, but limited near-term upside expected. The mean target is the average of all analyst price targets; the range shows where the most optimistic and most cautious analysts stand.

Consensus RatingHold(32 analysts)
SellStrong Buy
Low Target$80.00-46.4%
Mean Target$135.34-9.4% upside
High Target$135.00+-9.6%

Intrinsic Value Estimates for TGT

Intrinsic value is what a stock is truly worth based on the company's fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. We use multiple models because no single formula is perfect: each captures different aspects of a business. If multiple models agree the stock is undervalued, that convergence is a stronger signal. A stock trading well below its intrinsic value may be a bargain; one far above may carry more risk.

DCF Model (10yr)
$145.18
-2.8% vs current
Discounts 10 years of projected free cash flow back to today's dollars (5% growth, 10% discount rate). Best for companies generating consistent cash.
Fair Value Range
$145.18 – $145.18
Average Estimate
$145.18
Potential Downside
-2.8%

⚠️ Intrinsic value estimates use simplified models (Graham, DCF, P/E) and conservative assumptions. They should be used as one input among many — not as sole buy/sell guidance. For advanced analysis, see the full platform.

TGT Investment Case: Bull vs Bear

Every investment has two sides. The bull case outlines the key reasons the stock could outperform — competitive advantages, growth catalysts, and market tailwinds. The bear case highlights the most significant risks that could cause the investment to underperform. Good investors read both sides carefully before deciding. A strong bull case with manageable bear risks typically makes for a more compelling investment.

Bull Case (Reasons to Buy)

  • Same-day services (Drive Up, Order Pickup, Shipt delivery) are a competitive moat — 95% of digital orders fulfilled from stores within hours at lower cost than warehouse fulfillment.
  • Owned brands (Cat & Jack, Good & Gather, All in Motion) represent 30% of sales at higher margins — Target designs and sources these brands directly.
  • Beauty category is growing 10%+ with Ulta Beauty at Target shop-in-shops and exclusive brand partnerships — the highest-growth category in retail.
  • Store remodel program (300+ stores) is driving traffic and basket size increases — refreshed stores generate 2-4% higher same-store sales.

Bear Case (Key Risks)

  • Discretionary spending sensitivity — Target's merchandise mix (apparel, home, electronics) is more discretionary than Walmart or grocery-focused retailers.
  • Shrink (theft) has been a significant margin headwind — Target cited $500M+ in annual shrink losses, impacting profitability.
  • Competition from Amazon (online), Walmart (value), and specialty retailers (fashion, home) squeezes Target from multiple directions.
  • Traffic has been inconsistent — same-store sales have been negative or flat in recent quarters as consumers prioritize essentials over discretionary items.

What to Watch: TGT Key Metrics

Same-store sales growth
Discretionary category trends
Digital sales growth
Gross margin and shrink impact
Owned brand penetration

TGT Stock — Frequently Asked Questions

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TGT — Related Investment Themes

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