TGT vs KR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Target and Kroger are both large US retailers but with dramatically different category exposure and economic sensitivity. Target's ~50% discretionary exposure (apparel, home, electronics) makes it more economically cyclical; Kroger's ~90% grocery focus makes it among the most recession-resilient large retailers. Target offers better upside in consumer confidence growth; Kroger offers defensive stability through all economic cycles.
TGT vs KR is the mass retailer with design-forward discretionary merchandise creating style-value differentiation but creating economic cyclicality (Target) versus the pure-play grocery market leader with recession-resilient food retailing, fuel rewards loyalty, and personalized digital pricing (Kroger) — discretionary style retail vs essential grocery income stability.
TGT holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TGT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+78.14% vs -8.99%), though KR has the better forward P/E setup (10.39x vs 17.17x for TGT). TGT leads on both revenue growth (5.30%) and operating margin (5.90%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KR (+22.06%) than for TGT (-0.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the style-differentiated mass retailer attracting higher-income discretionary shoppers with design-forward private labels and 'cheap chic' positioning
- value Target's recovery upside as discretionary demand normalizes and operating margins recover toward historical levels
- want omnichannel mass retail exposure with same-day Drive Up and beauty category strength creating high-frequency consumer touch points
- are comfortable with discretionary category economic sensitivity, grocery share weakness vs Walmart and Kroger, and shrink/organized retail crime operational headwinds
- prefer the pure-play grocery market leader whose food-essential revenue base is among the most recession-resilient of any large retailer
- value Kroger's personalized digital loyalty and fuel rewards creating grocery consumer lock-in and regular store traffic
- want defensive consumer staples exposure from the largest US supermarket chain with private label breadth and procurement scale advantages
- are comfortable with limited organic growth rate in mature grocery market, Amazon Fresh and Aldi competitive pressure, and unionized labor cost structure limiting margin flexibility
| Metric | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.1 | 41.6 |
| AI ranki | #412 | #1021 |
| Latest closei | $159.83 | $60.75 |
| 1M returni | +4.82% | +7.83% |
| 6M returni | +39.63% | -17.64% |
| 1Y returni | +78.14% | -8.99% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $17.97K (+79.7%) started 2025-09-17 | $9.07K (-9.3%) started 2025-09-17 |
| 5Y ago | $8.2K (-18.0%) started 2021-09-20 | $17.73K (+77.3%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $39.58K (+295.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $28.85K (+188.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $74.13B | $35.36B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.21 | 33.75 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.17 | 10.39 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.42 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.81 | 0.45 |
| Analyst targeti | $161.62 | $70.45 |
| Target upsidei | -0.96% | +22.06% |
| Metric | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.30% | 2.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 100.50% | 13.20% |
| EPS growthi | +100.50% | +13.20% |
| FCF margini | +3.20% | +2.01% |
| Operating margini | 5.90% | 3.22% |
| Profit margini | 4.08% | 0.71% |
| ROIC proxyi | 26.41% | 13.78% |
| Return on equityi | 26.41% | 13.78% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.84% | 2.53% |
| Payout ratioi | 47.30% | 75.68% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.97 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 106.99 | 373.45 |
| Current ratioi | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.28 |
Over the past year, TGT and KR have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +79.73% | -9.27% |
| CAGRi | +79.88% | -9.29% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.65% | 28.66% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.93 | -0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.00 | -0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.41% | 26.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.92% | 19.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.14% | 11.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.39% | 13.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.44% | 8.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.18% | 13.83% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -26.66% | +63.02% |
| CAGRi | -6.02% | +10.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.13% | 27.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.11 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.15 | 0.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.22% | 31.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.57% | 19.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 41.73% | 13.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 44.20% | 16.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.93% | 8.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.35% | 13.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +197.81% | +136.60% |
| CAGRi | +11.54% | +9.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.56% | 29.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.22% | 43.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.57% | 19.64% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.74% | 15.38% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.72% | 18.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.93% | 18.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.35% | 27.58% |
| Category | TGT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Target Corporation | The Kroger Co. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Grocery Stores |
| Core business | Target operates 1,900+ US mass retail stores selling discretionary merchandise (apparel, home décor, electronics) alongside everyday essentials (grocery, household, beauty). Target's 'cheap chic' positioning attracts higher-income value shoppers through designer collaborations and exclusive private labels. Target Circle loyalty and same-day Drive Up and Shipt delivery create omnichannel convenience. Approximately 50% of Target's revenue comes from discretionary categories — making it more economically sensitive than pure grocery retailers. | Kroger is the largest US supermarket chain by revenue, operating 2,700+ stores under Kroger, Fred Meyer, King Soopers, Ralphs, and other banners across 35 states. Kroger's business is ~90% grocery and food — one of the most essential and recession-resilient retail categories. Kroger's Boost membership, personalized digital coupons, and pharmacy services create loyalty. The proposed Kroger-Albertsons merger (blocked by FTC) would have created an even larger grocery entity; Kroger remains a standalone grocery powerhouse. Kroger's fuel rewards program drives traffic. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable traffic and ticket, discretionary vs consumables category mix, operating margin recovery, and omnichannel fulfillment adoption. | Investors track identical-store sales, fresh department performance, fuel reward program traffic, digital sales penetration, and private label (Simple Truth, Private Selection) penetration. |
- Design-differentiated private label brands (Cat & Jack, Threshold, A New Day) attract higher-income style-conscious shoppers creating trading-up behavior vs Walmart's pure-value positioning
- Same-day Drive Up and Shipt delivery integrate digital convenience into Target's physical store footprint — stores as fulfillment centers
- Beauty and personal care category strength creates high-frequency traffic — Target's beauty section competes with Ulta and Sephora for loyal beauty shoppers
- Grocery is the most recession-resilient retail category — food is essential and Kroger's identical-store sales hold up through economic cycles better than any discretionary retailer
- Scale in grocery procurement creates cost advantages — Kroger's buying power and private label development compress COGS creating food margin improvements
- Personalized digital offers via Kroger app and loyalty data create pricing precision that national CPG brands cannot match at individual shopper level
- Discretionary category concentration creates significant economic sensitivity — apparel and home purchases decline rapidly during recessions
- Grocery market share is weaker than Walmart and Kroger — Target's grocery selection is limited vs full-service grocery retailers
- Organized retail crime and shrink elevated inventory losses and store profitability in recent years
- Amazon Fresh, Walmart grocery pickup, and Aldi/Lidl hard discount compete intensely for grocery share across all income segments
- Kroger's growth rate is inherently limited by the mature grocery market — without significant new store openings or acquisition, comp growth is the primary lever
- Labor costs are a significant Kroger expense with unionized workforce making rapid cost structure changes difficult during inflationary periods
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