GD vs LMT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin are both premier US defense contractors, but with different portfolio compositions. GD diversifies into commercial aerospace (Gulfstream), submarines, and IT services; Lockheed is pure defense with F-35 jets, missiles, helicopters, and space systems. Both benefit from elevated NATO defense spending, but LMT's F-35 and missile programs have more direct Ukraine/NATO beneficiary exposure.
GD vs LMT is a diversified defense-plus-commercial-aerospace compounder (General Dynamics) versus the pure-play advanced weapons systems leader with the F-35 and missile demand surge (Lockheed Martin) — GD offers Gulfstream commercial upside; LMT offers the deepest exposure to NATO rearmament through F-35 and HIMARS demand.
LMT holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LMT leads on both 1-year return (+12.62%) and forward P/E quality (17.23x vs 20.45x for GD), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LMT leads on both revenue growth (10.50%) and operating margin (11.96%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +10.73% for GD and +12.25% for LMT.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer defense diversification with Gulfstream commercial aerospace adding non-defense revenue cyclically uncorrelated with DoD budgets
- value submarine production as a sole-source multi-decade program providing exceptional government contract revenue visibility
- want a defense dividend grower with a more balanced portfolio across combat, naval, aviation, and IT services
- are comfortable with Gulfstream delivery timing risk and submarine production ramp workforce challenges
- prefer the world's largest defense contractor with F-35 as the most widely deployed NATO fifth-generation fighter jet
- value HIMARS and PAC-3 missile systems demand from Ukraine war replenishment and NATO defense spending increases
- want the deepest pure-play advanced weapons systems exposure to elevated global defense spending from geopolitical tensions
- are comfortable with pure government dependency (no commercial diversification) and F-35 production software complexity
| Metric | GD | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.2 | 52.4 |
| AI ranki | #403 | #393 |
| Latest closei | $353.05 | $533.38 |
| 1M returni | -10.01% | -9.47% |
| 6M returni | +0.98% | -16.33% |
| 1Y returni | +8.77% | +12.62% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GD | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.88K (+8.8%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.26K (+12.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $21.58K (+115.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $19.1K (+91.0%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $34.83K (+248.3%) started 2016-09-19 | $35.61K (+256.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GD | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $102.63B | $130.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 23.14 | 20.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 20.45 | 17.23 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.57 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.96 | 1.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $420.02 | $632.95 |
| Target upsidei | +10.73% | +12.25% |
| Metric | GD | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 8.10% | 10.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 13.40% | 443.80% |
| EPS growthi | +13.40% | +443.80% |
| FCF margini | +8.02% | +7.22% |
| Operating margini | 10.38% | 11.96% |
| Profit margini | 8.18% | 8.16% |
| ROIC proxyi | 17.80% | 89.17% |
| Return on equityi | 17.80% | 89.17% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.68% | 2.45% |
| Payout ratioi | 37.68% | 50.33% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 35.34 | 234.24 |
| Current ratioi | 1.44 | 1.19 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.85 | 0.97 |
Over the past year, GD and LMT have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.54), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GD | LMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +8.77% | +12.62% |
| CAGRi | +8.78% | +12.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.31% | 28.37% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.40 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.44 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 15.23% | 27.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.84% | 21.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.13% | 11.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.19% | 14.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.18% | 4.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.86% | 13.30% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +98.18% | +73.14% |
| CAGRi | +14.68% | +11.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.70% | 24.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.80 | 0.55 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.55% | 32.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.84% | 21.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.99% | 11.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.08% | 14.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.27% | 11.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.82% | 13.30% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +181.71% | +177.10% |
| CAGRi | +10.92% | +10.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.84% | 24.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 0.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.63% | 36.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.84% | 21.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.78% | 10.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.91% | 12.81% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.93% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.06% | 19.06% |
| Category | GD | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | General Dynamics Corporation | Lockheed Martin Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | General Dynamics is a diversified defense and aerospace company with four segments: Aerospace (Gulfstream business jets), Combat Systems (Abrams tanks, wheeled vehicles, munitions), Marine Systems (Virginia-class submarines, DDG destroyers), and Technologies (IT services and cybersecurity for the US government). The diversification into Gulfstream private jets gives GD commercial aerospace exposure not present in pure defense peers. Marine Systems is the largest builder of US Navy nuclear submarines. | Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense contractor, primarily focused on advanced weapon systems — F-35 fighter jets (the largest defense program in history), missiles and fire control (PAC-3, HIMARS), rotary and mission systems (Black Hawk, Sikorsky helicopters), and space systems (satellite constellations, classified programs). The F-35 program alone generates ~$15B annually. NATO partner countries purchasing F-35 jets and the Ukraine-driven demand for missiles and fire control systems have boosted Lockheed's recent backlog. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Gulfstream aircraft deliveries and backlog, submarine production rate (Virginia-class ramp is a multi-decade program), combat systems demand from NATO defense spending increases, and the Technologies IT services revenue. | Investors track F-35 production rate and international sales, missile and fire control backlog (HIMARS demand from Ukraine conflict and NATO allies), Sikorsky helicopter deliveries, and dividend sustainability from consistent government contracts. |
- Virginia-class nuclear submarine program is a sole-source, multi-decade US Navy contract providing exceptional revenue visibility
- Gulfstream business jet market exposure provides commercial upside from high-net-worth and corporate aircraft demand cycles
- Strong balance sheet and consistent free cash flow from diverse government contracting supports reliable dividend growth
- F-35 is the largest single defense program in history — deeply embedded in NATO air forces for decades with multi-decade production and sustainment tail
- HIMARS and PAC-3 missile demand has surged from Ukraine war replenishment and NATO member defense spending increases
- Space systems segment including satellite and classified programs provides long-term national security relevance
- Gulfstream production delays and labor challenges have affected aircraft delivery timelines, impacting revenue recognition
- Submarine production ramp requires skilled workforce expansion — shipbuilding labor shortages are an industry-wide challenge
- Technologies segment faces IT services competition from major defense IT contractors and large commercial cloud providers
- F-35 production software and maintenance challenges have created periodic program delivery delays and cost overruns
- DoD budget pressure could result in reduced F-35 procurement in future years as other platforms compete for budget
- No commercial aerospace diversification — Lockheed's earnings are entirely dependent on US government and allied nation defense spending
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