BA vs LMT: Boeing vs Lockheed Martin Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Boeing is a turnaround story — a world-class aerospace franchise in the middle of a quality and production recovery after years of crises, trading below its intrinsic value if management executes. Lockheed Martin is a high-quality, consistent defense compounder with durable F-35 revenue and surging missile demand in an elevated geopolitical environment.
Use this BA vs LMT comparison to choose between a deeply discounted turnaround in commercial aerospace and a premium-quality defense compounder. Boeing offers higher recovery upside if its production and certification recovery succeeds; Lockheed offers more predictable cash flows and capital returns with less execution risk.
LMT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LMT leads on both 1-year return (+38.43%) and forward P/E quality (15.86x vs 52.67x for BA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, BA is growing revenue faster (14.00%), while LMT maintains the higher operating margin (11.00%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BA (+26.19%) than for LMT (+19.59%).
- →Want turnaround upside in one of the world's two irreplaceable large commercial jet manufacturers
- →Believe Boeing's production and quality recovery will unlock the enormous value in its backlog
- →Are comfortable with elevated near-term execution risk and a longer recovery timeline
- →Value the commercial aerospace duopoly as a structural competitive moat worth owning through the recovery
- →Want a high-quality defense compounder with predictable cash flows and consistent capital returns
- →Value F-35 as a decades-long sustainment revenue stream across NATO and allied nations
- →Prefer lower execution risk and more predictable earnings than Boeing's recovery-dependent financials
- →Believe elevated geopolitical tensions will sustain defense budget growth and missile demand
| Metric | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 41.5 | 41.8 |
| AI rank | #1001 | #964 |
| Latest close | $209.23 | $568.59 |
| 1M return | -3.45% | +12.89% |
| 6M return | -16.33% | -3.01% |
| 1Y return | -8.43% | +38.43% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.95K (-10.5%) started 2025-07-23 | $13.56K (+35.6%) started 2025-07-23 |
| 5Y ago | $9.26K (-7.4%) started 2021-07-26 | $19.01K (+90.1%) started 2021-07-26 |
| 10Y ago | $18.99K (+89.9%) started 2016-07-25 | $36.33K (+263.3%) started 2016-07-25 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $168.72B | $117.3B |
| Trailing P/E | 84.60 | 24.63 |
| Forward P/E | 52.67 | 15.86 |
| Price/Sales | 2.29 | 1.57 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.15 | 1.81 |
| Analyst target | $270.08 | $608.42 |
| Target upside | +26.19% | +19.59% |
| Metric | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 14.00% | 0.30% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | -11.50% |
| EPS growth | N/A | -11.50% |
| FCF margin | +2.77% | +5.31% |
| Operating margin | 1.71% | 11.00% |
| Profit margin | 2.46% | 6.38% |
| ROIC proxy | 169.95% | 67.64% |
| Return on equity | 169.95% | 67.64% |
| Dividend yield | N/A | 2.71% |
| Beta | 1.21 | 0.11 |
| Debt/equity | 828.70 | 276.37 |
| Current ratio | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratio | 0.32 | 0.91 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -10.54% | +35.58% |
| CAGR | -10.55% | +35.63% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.33 | 1.10 | |
| Max drawdown | 24.96% | 27.35% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.32% | 4.82% | |
| Max wkly drop | 11.32% | 13.30% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -7.36% | +70.96% |
| CAGR | -1.52% | +11.34% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.02 | 0.38 | |
| Max drawdown | 51.62% | 32.26% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.47% | 11.80% | |
| Max wkly drop | 21.19% | 13.30% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +72.48% | +180.25% |
| CAGR | +5.61% | +10.86% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.23 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdown | 77.92% | 36.67% | |
| Max daily drop | 23.85% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly drop | 46.26% | 19.06% |
| Category | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Boeing Company | Lockheed Martin Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Global aerospace and defense company. Commercial Airplanes (737, 787, 777) is the largest segment by revenue when fully operating. Defense, Space & Security produces F/A-18, CH-47, KC-46, and missile programs. Boeing Global Services provides aftermarket support. | World's largest defense contractor. Core businesses: Aeronautics (F-35, F-16, C-130), Missiles & Fire Control (HIMARS, Javelin, PAC-3), Rotary & Mission Systems (Black Hawk, Aegis), and Space (satellites, missile defense). |
| Investor focus | 737 MAX production rate recovery, 787 and 777X delivery resumption, FAA oversight and quality certification, cash flow restoration, and debt reduction. | F-35 production and sustainment revenue, hypersonic program wins, NATO and allied nation procurement driven by geopolitical demand, free cash flow, and capital returns. |
- →One of only two large commercial jet manufacturers globally — a structural duopoly with Airbus
- →Massive commercial aircraft backlog (5,000+ planes) providing long-term revenue visibility
- →Boeing Global Services generates consistent, high-margin aftermarket and parts revenue
- →F-35 is the backbone of Western air force modernisation — a multi-decade sustainment revenue stream across 15+ allied nations
- →HIMARS and missile systems have seen extraordinary demand following geopolitical conflicts in Europe and Asia
- →Exceptionally consistent free cash flow generation with a strong shareholder return program (buybacks and dividends)
- →Production quality and FAA certification remain the critical near-term constraints on delivery rates
- →Net debt is very high following years of 737 MAX crisis and COVID — free cash flow recovery is essential to deleveraging
- →Labour relations and supply chain disruptions continue to impede production rate ramp
- →F-35 production is constrained by TR-3 software delays and engine supplier issues
- →US defense budget uncertainty — sequestration or continuing resolutions can delay contract awards
- →F-35 sustainment cost controversy — the Pentagon continues to push for lower long-term maintenance costs
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