Why is Lockheed Martin considered a defensive stock?

Lockheed derives nearly all revenue from government defense contracts, primarily with the US Department of Defense and allied governments. Defense budgets tend to be less cyclical than commercial spending, and geopolitical tensions have driven significant increases in procurement across NATO countries. The F-35's role as the primary allied fighter gives Lockheed a unique, sticky multi-decade revenue stream.

How do BA and LMT compare on dividends and buybacks?

Lockheed Martin is the stronger capital return story — it has consistently paid and grown its dividend and executed meaningful buybacks. Boeing suspended its dividend during the 737 MAX crisis and COVID period and has not yet resumed it at scale, as cash flow recovery must first reduce debt. LMT is clearly superior for income investors; BA is a capital appreciation recovery story, not a current income holding.

Data as of: June 15, 2026

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BA

The Boeing Company · Aerospace & Defense

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LMT

Lockheed Martin Corporation · Defense

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Quick take

BA vs LMT: Boeing vs Lockheed Martin Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

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Boeing is a turnaround story — a world-class aerospace franchise in the middle of a quality and production recovery after years of crises, trading below its intrinsic value if management executes. Lockheed Martin is a high-quality, consistent defense compounder with durable F-35 revenue and surging missile demand in an elevated geopolitical environment.

Use this BA vs LMT comparison to choose between a deeply discounted turnaround in commercial aerospace and a premium-quality defense compounder. Boeing offers higher recovery upside if its production and certification recovery succeeds; Lockheed offers more predictable cash flows and capital returns with less execution risk.

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Normalized 1Y performance

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Analyst price targets & sentiment

Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.

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Who should consider this stock?

BA may suit investors who:

Want turnaround upside in one of the world's two irreplaceable large commercial jet manufacturers
Believe Boeing's production and quality recovery will unlock the enormous value in its backlog
Are comfortable with elevated near-term execution risk and a longer recovery timeline
Value the commercial aerospace duopoly as a structural competitive moat worth owning through the recovery

LMT may suit investors who:

Want a high-quality defense compounder with predictable cash flows and consistent capital returns
Value F-35 as a decades-long sustainment revenue stream across NATO and allied nations
Prefer lower execution risk and more predictable earnings than Boeing's recovery-dependent financials
Believe elevated geopolitical tensions will sustain defense budget growth and missile demand

Performance & AI score

Performance & AI score
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Full DCF model for BA Full DCF model for LMT

Growth, profitability & risk

Growth, profitability & risk
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Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

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Performance metrics by period

Performance metrics by period
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AI Prediction Signali

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Business comparison

Business comparison
Category	BA	LMT
Company	The Boeing Company	Lockheed Martin Corporation
Sector	Aerospace & Defense	Defense
Industry	N/A	N/A
Core business	Global aerospace and defense company. Commercial Airplanes (737, 787, 777) is the largest segment by revenue when fully operating. Defense, Space & Security produces F/A-18, CH-47, KC-46, and missile programs. Boeing Global Services provides aftermarket support.	World's largest defense contractor. Core businesses: Aeronautics (F-35, F-16, C-130), Missiles & Fire Control (HIMARS, Javelin, PAC-3), Rotary & Mission Systems (Black Hawk, Aegis), and Space (satellites, missile defense).
Investor focus	737 MAX production rate recovery, 787 and 777X delivery resumption, FAA oversight and quality certification, cash flow restoration, and debt reduction.	F-35 production and sustainment revenue, hypersonic program wins, NATO and allied nation procurement driven by geopolitical demand, free cash flow, and capital returns.

BA strengths

One of only two large commercial jet manufacturers globally — a structural duopoly with Airbus
Massive commercial aircraft backlog (5,000+ planes) providing long-term revenue visibility
Boeing Global Services generates consistent, high-margin aftermarket and parts revenue

LMT strengths

F-35 is the backbone of Western air force modernisation — a multi-decade sustainment revenue stream across 15+ allied nations
HIMARS and missile systems have seen extraordinary demand following geopolitical conflicts in Europe and Asia
Exceptionally consistent free cash flow generation with a strong shareholder return program (buybacks and dividends)

Risks to watch — BA

Production quality and FAA certification remain the critical near-term constraints on delivery rates
Net debt is very high following years of 737 MAX crisis and COVID — free cash flow recovery is essential to deleveraging
Labour relations and supply chain disruptions continue to impede production rate ramp

Risks to watch — LMT

F-35 production is constrained by TR-3 software delays and engine supplier issues
US defense budget uncertainty — sequestration or continuing resolutions can delay contract awards
F-35 sustainment cost controversy — the Pentagon continues to push for lower long-term maintenance costs

Frequently asked questions

Boeing's turnaround thesis rests on restoring 737 MAX production rates to 38–47 per month, resuming 787 and 777X deliveries, and reducing its large net debt burden. If execution succeeds, the cash flow recovery is substantial given the enormous backlog. The risk is that quality issues, FAA oversight, or labour disruptions continue to delay the ramp — making this a genuine turnaround with meaningful binary execution risk.

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