BA vs LMT: Boeing vs Lockheed Martin Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Boeing is a turnaround story — a world-class aerospace franchise in the middle of a quality and production recovery after years of crises, trading below its intrinsic value if management executes. Lockheed Martin is a high-quality, consistent defense compounder with durable F-35 revenue and surging missile demand in an elevated geopolitical environment.
Use this BA vs LMT comparison to choose between a deeply discounted turnaround in commercial aerospace and a premium-quality defense compounder. Boeing offers higher recovery upside if its production and certification recovery succeeds; Lockheed offers more predictable cash flows and capital returns with less execution risk.
LMT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LMT leads on both 1-year return (+16.97%) and forward P/E quality (17.23x vs 50.92x for BA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LMT leads on both revenue growth (10.50%) and operating margin (11.96%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BA (+30.99%) than for LMT (+12.25%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want turnaround upside in one of the world's two irreplaceable large commercial jet manufacturers
- Believe Boeing's production and quality recovery will unlock the enormous value in its backlog
- Are comfortable with elevated near-term execution risk and a longer recovery timeline
- Value the commercial aerospace duopoly as a structural competitive moat worth owning through the recovery
- Want a high-quality defense compounder with predictable cash flows and consistent capital returns
- Value F-35 as a decades-long sustainment revenue stream across NATO and allied nations
- Prefer lower execution risk and more predictable earnings than Boeing's recovery-dependent financials
- Believe elevated geopolitical tensions will sustain defense budget growth and missile demand
| Metric | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.7 | 52.4 |
| AI ranki | #977 | #383 |
| Latest closei | $212.25 | $525.28 |
| 1M returni | -11.63% | -9.06% |
| 6M returni | -4.42% | -19.80% |
| 1Y returni | -8.66% | +16.97% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.2K (-8.0%) started 2025-09-04 | $11.5K (+15.0%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $9.91K (-0.9%) started 2021-09-07 | $18.23K (+82.3%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $18.92K (+89.2%) started 2016-09-06 | $34.76K (+247.6%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $165.84B | $130.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 75.75 | 20.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 50.92 | 17.23 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.29 | 1.57 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.07 | 1.91 |
| Analyst targeti | $274.85 | $632.95 |
| Target upsidei | +30.99% | +12.25% |
| Metric | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 8.00% | 10.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 443.80% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +443.80% |
| FCF margini | +5.98% | +7.22% |
| Operating margini | 0.00% | 11.96% |
| Profit margini | 2.59% | 8.16% |
| ROIC proxyi | 173.54% | 89.17% |
| Return on equityi | 173.54% | 89.17% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.45% |
| Betai | 1.22 | 0.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 790.88 | 234.24 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.30 | 0.97 |
Over the past year, BA and LMT have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.20), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -8.02% | +14.98% |
| CAGRi | -8.03% | +15.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.39% | 28.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.22 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.33 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.96% | 27.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 15.82% | 22.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.50% | 10.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.89% | 13.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.32% | 4.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.32% | 13.30% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -0.93% | +65.27% |
| CAGRi | -0.19% | +10.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.64% | 24.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.06 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.08 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.29% | 32.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.68% | 22.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.86% | 11.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.07% | 13.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.47% | 11.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.19% | 13.30% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +73.46% | +170.51% |
| CAGRi | +5.67% | +10.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.81% | 24.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.34 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 77.92% | 36.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.67% | 22.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 38.26% | 10.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 44.91% | 12.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.85% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 46.26% | 19.06% |
| Category | BA | LMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Boeing Company | Lockheed Martin Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Global aerospace and defense company. Commercial Airplanes (737, 787, 777) is the largest segment by revenue when fully operating. Defense, Space & Security produces F/A-18, CH-47, KC-46, and missile programs. Boeing Global Services provides aftermarket support. | World's largest defense contractor. Core businesses: Aeronautics (F-35, F-16, C-130), Missiles & Fire Control (HIMARS, Javelin, PAC-3), Rotary & Mission Systems (Black Hawk, Aegis), and Space (satellites, missile defense). |
| Investor focus | 737 MAX production rate recovery, 787 and 777X delivery resumption, FAA oversight and quality certification, cash flow restoration, and debt reduction. | F-35 production and sustainment revenue, hypersonic program wins, NATO and allied nation procurement driven by geopolitical demand, free cash flow, and capital returns. |
- One of only two large commercial jet manufacturers globally — a structural duopoly with Airbus
- Massive commercial aircraft backlog (5,000+ planes) providing long-term revenue visibility
- Boeing Global Services generates consistent, high-margin aftermarket and parts revenue
- F-35 is the backbone of Western air force modernisation — a multi-decade sustainment revenue stream across 15+ allied nations
- HIMARS and missile systems have seen extraordinary demand following geopolitical conflicts in Europe and Asia
- Exceptionally consistent free cash flow generation with a strong shareholder return program (buybacks and dividends)
- Production quality and FAA certification remain the critical near-term constraints on delivery rates
- Net debt is very high following years of 737 MAX crisis and COVID — free cash flow recovery is essential to deleveraging
- Labour relations and supply chain disruptions continue to impede production rate ramp
- F-35 production is constrained by TR-3 software delays and engine supplier issues
- US defense budget uncertainty — sequestration or continuing resolutions can delay contract awards
- F-35 sustainment cost controversy — the Pentagon continues to push for lower long-term maintenance costs
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