HEI vs TDG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Both HEICO and TDG are elite aerospace component businesses with strong moats, but with distinctly different strategies — HEICO uses FAA PMA parts to offer lower-cost alternatives to OEM parts, while TransDigm acquires sole-source proprietary parts and aggressively manages pricing. Both have exceptional long-term returns but very different risk profiles.
HEI vs TDG compares two elite aerospace component franchises: HEICO's cost-alternative PMA strategy versus TransDigm's sole-source proprietary pricing model, both compounding returns through niche aerospace markets.
TDG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HEI has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-7.31% vs -15.56%), though TDG has the better forward P/E setup (24.50x vs 44.66x for HEI). On fundamentals, HEI is growing revenue faster (23.10%), while TDG maintains the higher operating margin (46.01%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TDG (+28.40%) than for HEI (+23.08%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a high-quality, family-controlled aerospace components compounder with lower leverage
- Value HEICO's dual-strategy of PMA alternatives and defense electronics acquisition
- Prefer a less controversial, lower-leverage aerospace parts business versus TransDigm's high-debt model
- Want the maximum pricing power and EBITDA margin profile in aerospace aftermarket components
- Are comfortable with TransDigm's high leverage and aggressive sole-source pricing strategy
- Value the frequent special dividend distributions enabled by TransDigm's exceptional cash generation
| Metric | HEI | TDG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 61.3 | 52.6 |
| AI ranki | #157 | #384 |
| Latest closei | $298.22 | $1,086.05 |
| 1M returni | -17.94% | -11.19% |
| 6M returni | +7.60% | -8.88% |
| 1Y returni | -7.31% | -15.56% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HEI | TDG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.27K (-7.3%) started 2025-09-18 | $8.44K (-15.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $23.38K (+133.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $22.47K (+124.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $84.96K (+749.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $92.27K (+822.7%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HEI | TDG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $44.93B | $65.56B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 53.41 | 35.97 |
| Forward P/Ei | 44.66 | 24.50 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 9.82 |
| EV/Revenuei | 9.36 | 9.63 |
| Analyst targeti | $395.74 | $1,522.79 |
| Target upsidei | +23.08% | +28.40% |
| Metric | HEI | TDG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 23.10% | 22.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 32.50% | 10.90% |
| EPS growthi | +32.50% | +10.90% |
| FCF margini | +16.33% | +14.57% |
| Operating margini | 25.14% | 46.01% |
| Profit margini | 16.38% | 21.28% |
| ROIC proxyi | 17.73% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 17.73% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.08% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 4.17% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | 2 yrs |
| Betai | 1.05 | 0.91 |
| Debt/equityi | 45.03 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 2.72 | 3.02 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.11 | 1.92 |
Over the past year, HEI and TDG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.53), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HEI | TDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.31% | -15.56% |
| CAGRi | -7.32% | -15.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.99% | 27.34% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.22 | -0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.32 | -0.85 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.11% | 25.79% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.40% | 25.10% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.51% | 10.26% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.45% | 12.55% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.21% | 9.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.54% | 11.16% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +133.79% | +98.85% |
| CAGRi | +18.54% | +14.75% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.80% | 28.24% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.87 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.11% | 33.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.40% | 32.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.14% | 9.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.28% | 12.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.21% | 11.94% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.77% | 16.63% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +749.56% | +475.58% |
| CAGRi | +23.87% | +19.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.73% | 34.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.71 | 0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.04 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.75% | 62.64% | |
| Current drawdowni | 20.40% | 32.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.94% | 9.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.05% | 13.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.38% | 21.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.86% | 46.82% |
| Category | HEI | TDG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | HEICO Corporation | TransDigm Group Incorporated |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | HEICO is a specialty aerospace components company known for manufacturing FAA-approved Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) parts at lower cost than original equipment manufacturers, serving airlines and MRO providers, alongside a defense electronics division. | TransDigm acquires and operates highly engineered, proprietary aerospace components with significant aftermarket content, using a value-based pricing strategy that captures maximum value from sole-source positions on aircraft platforms. |
| Investor focus | Investors track HEICO's organic revenue growth in flight support and electronic technologies segments, acquisition pipeline, and margins as the company continues acquiring niche aerospace businesses. | Investors track TransDigm's organic growth (historically driven by aftermarket price increases), acquisition pipeline, EBITDA margin expansion, and the company's high-leverage capital structure with frequent special dividends. |
- FAA-approved PMA parts provide OEM-approved lower-cost alternatives that airlines adopt to reduce maintenance costs
- Strong acquisition track record of acquiring niche aerospace and defense component businesses
- Family-controlled management with long-term owner-operator mindset and disciplined capital deployment
- Exceptional ability to acquire niche, sole-source aerospace components and apply value-based pricing discipline
- Proprietary parts installed on aircraft create multi-decade aftermarket revenue streams as airlines must buy replacement parts
- EBITDA margin profile is among the best in industrials, reflecting the pricing power of sole-source positions
- PMA part approvals take time and regulatory effort, limiting near-term organic growth acceleration
- Airlines adopting PMA parts reduce spending with OEMs like GE or Safran, creating some OEM push-back
- Premium valuation reflects the quality franchise and growth track record that must be sustained
- High leverage through significant acquisition-related debt creates financial risk in downturns
- Pentagon scrutiny of TransDigm's pricing practices on government contracts has created regulatory and reputational risk
- Acquisition-driven growth requires continuous deal flow at attractive prices in a competitive market for aerospace assets
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