CSX vs UNP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CSX and Union Pacific are the leading US railroad companies — CSX dominating the eastern network, Union Pacific dominating the western network. Both benefit from natural geographic monopolies on their specific routes. CSX's eastern seaport connectivity is strategically valuable; Union Pacific's Pacific Coast port gateway is essential for Asian import distribution. Both are exceptional long-term compounders with pricing power from freight-hauling infrastructure monopolies.
CSX vs UNP is the eastern US railroad network with seaport connectivity and PSR efficiency (CSX) versus the largest western railroad with Pacific Coast gateway and Mexican cross-border freight (Union Pacific) — eastern vs western US rail monopoly, both exceptional long-term infrastructure compounders with pricing power.
UNP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CSX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+46.17% vs +30.07%), though UNP has the better forward P/E setup (21.72x vs 22.58x for CSX). UNP leads on both revenue growth (11.50%) and operating margin (40.98%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UNP (+7.10%) than for CSX (+3.63%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer eastern US railroad exposure with Atlantic seaport connectivity (Savannah, Baltimore, Norfolk) as US import volumes through East Coast ports grow
- value CSX's PSR operating efficiency discipline sustaining operating ratio improvement over time
- want east coast industrial and chemical corridor rail exposure serving key eastern US industrial markets from the Gulf Coast to New England
- are comfortable with coal revenue secular decline, intermodal trucking competition in shorter hauls, and service reliability challenges during demand spikes
- prefer the largest western US railroad with Pacific Coast port gateway infrastructure essential for distributing Asian imports through the US interior
- value Union Pacific's Mexico cross-border freight exposure as nearshoring manufacturing growth increases US-Mexico freight volumes
- want the largest-scale US freight railroad compounding from western US population and freight volume growth trends
- are comfortable with BNSF competition on some western routes, agricultural export volume cyclicality, and service quality management through PSR efficiency initiatives
| Metric | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 55.0 | 53.3 |
| AI ranki | #278 | #348 |
| Latest closei | $47.90 | $282.48 |
| 1M returni | -4.66% | -5.44% |
| 6M returni | +24.45% | +20.63% |
| 1Y returni | +46.17% | +30.07% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.33K (+43.3%) started 2025-09-18 | $12.82K (+28.2%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $17.68K (+76.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $16.77K (+67.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $62.33K (+523.3%) started 2016-09-19 | $44.8K (+348.0%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $94.99B | $182.62B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 29.81 | 24.87 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.58 | 21.72 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 5.51 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.79 | 8.33 |
| Analyst targeti | $53.14 | $329.25 |
| Target upsidei | +3.63% | +7.10% |
| Metric | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.10% | 11.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 22.70% | 6.60% |
| EPS growthi | +22.70% | +6.60% |
| FCF margini | +13.46% | +18.58% |
| Operating margini | 38.42% | 40.98% |
| Profit margini | 22.21% | 28.85% |
| ROIC proxyi | 24.36% | 39.70% |
| Return on equityi | 24.36% | 39.70% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.09% | 1.85% |
| Payout ratioi | 31.40% | 44.70% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.21 | 0.96 |
| Debt/equityi | 138.07 | 150.77 |
| Current ratioi | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.76 |
Over the past year, CSX and UNP have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.73), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +43.28% | +28.19% |
| CAGRi | +43.34% | +28.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.18% | 22.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.54 | 1.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.49 | 1.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 11.58% | 12.28% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.01% | 9.06% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.94% | 3.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.05% | 4.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.81% | 4.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.42% | 6.73% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +68.62% | +54.58% |
| CAGRi | +11.03% | +9.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.44% | 23.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.54 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.44% | 31.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.01% | 9.06% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.80% | 12.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.92% | 14.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.71% | 6.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.25% | 12.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +451.41% | +265.67% |
| CAGRi | +18.62% | +13.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.73% | 25.34% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | 0.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.55% | 38.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.01% | 9.06% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.46% | 8.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.99% | 11.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.55% | 13.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.55% | 18.71% |
| Category | CSX | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CSX Corporation | Union Pacific Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Railroads |
| Core business | CSX operates the largest rail network in the eastern United States, covering 21,000+ route miles from the Gulf Coast to New England and into Canada. CSX carries coal, intermodal containers, chemicals, merchandise, and automotive products. The eastern network's strength is connectivity to major eastern seaports (Savannah, Baltimore, Norfolk) and coal-producing regions. CSX's Precision Scheduled Railroading (PSR) operating model has significantly improved margins and service consistency. | Union Pacific operates the largest rail network in the western United States, covering 32,000+ route miles from the Missouri River to Pacific Coast ports (LA/Long Beach, Seattle). Union Pacific's network is essential for moving goods between the Pacific Coast ports (where most Asian imports enter the US) and the US interior. UNP carries a diverse mix of agricultural products, chemicals, energy, industrial goods, and intermodal containers. UP's western network serves the fastest-growing US population and freight growth regions. |
| Investor focus | Investors track revenue per revenue ton mile (pricing power), operating ratio (expenses as % of revenue, where lower is better), volume by freight category, and coal revenue in context of energy transition. | Investors track carload volumes by segment, operating ratio, intermodal pricing and volume, and any service improvement or backslide under current leadership. |
- Eastern US rail monopoly on its specific route network — trucks are the primary alternative but at significantly higher cost for heavy long-haul freight
- PSR operating discipline — operating ratio improvement has been sustained and CSX's efficiency metrics demonstrate consistent cost management
- Eastern seaport connectivity creates competitive advantage for import and export freight, particularly as Savannah, GA has grown dramatically as a port
- Western US monopoly on its specific routes — UP's gateway from Pacific Coast ports to the US interior is irreplaceable rail infrastructure with no competitive alternative
- Agricultural export connectivity — US grain, soybeans, and agricultural products flow through Union Pacific's network to Pacific export terminals
- Mexico cross-border freight is growing — UP's network extends into Mexico through Ferromex partnership, capturing Mexico manufacturing growth for nearshoring supply chains
- Coal revenue is declining secularly as power plant coal demand falls with natural gas and renewables displacement
- Intermodal competition from trucking in the shorter-haul markets where truck speed advantage matters more than rail cost advantage
- Service reliability has been challenged at times — PSR implementations historically reduce spare capacity and can create service problems when demand spikes
- BNSF (owned by Berkshire Hathaway) is Union Pacific's primary competitor on some western US routes — rail duopoly in the west means some competitive pressure
- Service reliability issues have periodically impacted UP's customer relationships — operating ratio focus must not sacrifice service quality
- Agricultural export volumes are cyclical — export volumes depend on global commodity prices and competition from South American agriculture
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