JNJ vs PFE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
J&J and Pfizer are both large-cap pharma stalwarts but occupy very different investment narratives in 2024. J&J is a steady compounder diversified across pharma and medical devices with a prized dividend history, while Pfizer is a turnaround story rebuilding its revenue base after a massive COVID-driven boom-and-bust cycle. The choice between them is essentially stability and consistency (JNJ) versus higher risk and potential recovery upside (PFE).
Investors should evaluate whether they want J&J's proven dividend compounding and pipeline stability or Pfizer's deep valuation discount and recovery potential — the two companies are at very different points in their earnings cycles.
JNJ holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. JNJ has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+47.88% vs +26.71%), though PFE has the better forward P/E setup (10.41x vs 21.78x for JNJ). JNJ leads on both revenue growth (6.60%) and operating margin (29.19%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for JNJ (+1.66%) than for PFE (-2.57%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prioritize long-term dividend income with 60+ years of consecutive increases
- want balanced healthcare exposure across pharma and medical devices
- prefer steady pipeline execution over binary pipeline bets
- are comfortable with modest growth in exchange for lower volatility
- seek a contrarian bet on post-COVID revenue recovery at a discounted valuation
- value deep pipeline optionality including the Seagen oncology platform
- are willing to accept near-term earnings pressure for potential medium-term upside
- want high dividend yield while the turnaround thesis plays out
| Metric | JNJ | PFE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.7 | 40.3 |
| AI ranki | #500 | #1194 |
| Latest closei | $276.32 | $30.79 |
| 1M returni | +9.25% | +12.33% |
| 3M returni | +7.27% | +19.29% |
| 6M returni | +23.02% | +16.06% |
| 1Y returni | +47.88% | +26.71% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | JNJ | PFE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.86K (+48.6%) started 2025-11-05 | $12.51K (+25.1%) started 2025-11-05 |
| 5Y ago | $20.88K (+108.8%) started 2021-11-08 | $9.1K (-9.0%) started 2021-11-08 |
| 10Y ago | $38.89K (+288.9%) started 2016-11-07 | $24.12K (+141.2%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | JNJ | PFE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $645.95B | $171.16B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.06 | 39.51 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.78 | 10.41 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.18 | 2.13 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.88 | 3.50 |
| Analyst targeti | $272.50 | $29.26 |
| Target upsidei | +1.66% | -2.57% |
| Metric | JNJ | PFE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.60% | 2.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -0.90% | -10.10% |
| EPS growthi | -0.90% | -10.10% |
| FCF margini | +17.24% | +19.60% |
| Operating margini | 29.19% | 27.88% |
| Profit margini | 21.48% | 6.80% |
| ROIC proxyi | 25.74% | 5.01% |
| Return on equityi | 25.74% | 5.01% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.00% | 5.73% |
| Payout ratioi | 80.12% | 245.71% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| Debt/equityi | 57.71 | 74.25 |
| Current ratioi | 1.09 | 1.27 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.72 | 0.85 |
Over the past year, JNJ and PFE have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.34), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | JNJ | PFE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +48.56% | +25.11% |
| CAGRi | +48.66% | +25.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.76% | 21.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.83 | 0.95 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.80 | 1.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 10.96% | 17.09% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.76% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.50% | 5.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.63% | 6.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.73% | 3.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.99% | 8.68% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +87.78% | -24.41% |
| CAGRi | +13.46% | -5.45% | |
| Volatilityi | 17.99% | 24.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | -0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.80 | -0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.41% | 58.96% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.76% | 40.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.12% | 39.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.63% | 42.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.59% | 6.72% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.18% | 11.19% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +199.24% | +54.56% |
| CAGRi | +11.59% | +4.45% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.01% | 24.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | 0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.62 | 0.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.37% | 58.96% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.76% | 40.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.45% | 23.92% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.00% | 30.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.04% | 7.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.25% | 15.34% |
| Category | JNJ | PFE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Johnson & Johnson | Pfizer Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Johnson & Johnson operates two segments: Innovative Medicine (branded pharmaceuticals including immunology, oncology, and neuroscience) and MedTech (surgical robotics, orthopedics, and cardiovascular devices). Following the Kenvue spin-off of its consumer health division, J&J is now a pure-play pharmaceutical and medical technology company. Revenue is broadly diversified across therapeutic areas and geographies. | Pfizer is a global biopharmaceutical company whose revenue base surged during COVID-19 due to its mRNA vaccine (Comirnaty) and antiviral (Paxlovid), then contracted sharply as pandemic demand normalized. The company is now executing a major post-COVID repositioning focused on oncology, rare diseases, and anti-infectives, accelerated by the $43B acquisition of Seagen. Legacy blockbusters including Eliquis and Vyndaqel anchor non-COVID revenue. |
| Investor focus | Investors track the Innovative Medicine segment's pipeline progression — particularly oncology and immunology launches replacing Stelara biosimilar erosion — alongside MedTech's surgical robotics ramp and dividend growth continuity. | Investors track the speed of non-COVID revenue recovery, Seagen oncology pipeline integration, the sustainability of the dividend given elevated debt, and whether newly launched products can offset the roughly $20B+ COVID revenue decline. |
- Dividend King with 60+ consecutive years of dividend increases
- Deep oncology and immunology pipeline with multiple Phase 3 assets
- MedTech segment provides differentiated exposure to surgical robotics and cardiovascular devices
- Seagen acquisition adds a leading oncology antibody-drug conjugate platform
- Eliquis (blood thinner) and Vyndaqel (cardiac) provide durable non-COVID revenue
- Deep manufacturing scale and global distribution infrastructure
- Stelara biosimilar competition eroding a key revenue pillar
- Ongoing talc litigation liability and settlement uncertainty
- MedTech integration complexity following multiple acquisitions
- Post-COVID revenue cliff creating multi-year earnings pressure
- Elevated debt load from Seagen acquisition constraining financial flexibility
- Multiple patent expirations creating a 'patent cliff' risk from 2025-2030
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