ISRG vs MDT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Intuitive Surgical and Medtronic represent two contrasting medtech investment profiles: ISRG is a high-growth, high-margin platform business with a dominant moat in robotic surgery, while MDT is a large-cap value play seeking to re-accelerate growth across a diversified but underperforming portfolio. ISRG commands a significant valuation premium that reflects its superior growth and moat; MDT trades at a discount that reflects years of execution challenges.
The core question is whether an investor wants to pay a premium for Intuitive Surgical's proven platform monopoly or accept Medtronic's discount and bet on a management turnaround across a more complex, diversified business.
ISRG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MDT leads on both 1-year return (-3.62%) and forward P/E quality (14.24x vs 30.87x for ISRG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. ISRG leads on both revenue growth (18.50%) and operating margin (33.60%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ISRG (+28.29%) than for MDT (+8.34%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want exposure to the dominant platform in robotic-assisted surgery with a durable competitive moat
- value recurring revenue models driven by procedure volume rather than capital equipment cycles
- are comfortable paying 50x+ earnings for consistent double-digit growth
- prefer focused businesses with clear market leadership over diversified conglomerates
- seek a discounted large-cap medtech with dividend income while a turnaround plays out
- want broad healthcare device exposure across cardiovascular, neuro, and surgical segments
- are willing to accept below-market growth in exchange for a lower entry valuation
- believe new management can unlock MDT's underlying portfolio value
| Metric | ISRG | MDT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.1 | 41.2 |
| AI ranki | #481 | #1072 |
| Latest closei | $393.33 | $92.13 |
| 1M returni | -1.10% | -2.12% |
| 6M returni | -18.04% | +6.06% |
| 1Y returni | -9.75% | -3.62% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ISRG | MDT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.02K (-9.8%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.64K (-3.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $11.64K (+16.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $9.09K (-9.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $51.04K (+410.4%) started 2016-09-19 | $17.08K (+70.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ISRG | MDT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $133.49B | $116.77B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 42.01 | 24.46 |
| Forward P/Ei | 30.87 | 14.24 |
| Price/Salesi | 22.91 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 11.47 | 3.78 |
| Analyst targeti | $478.01 | $98.84 |
| Target upsidei | +28.29% | +8.34% |
| Metric | ISRG | MDT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 18.50% | 9.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 26.50% | 18.30% |
| EPS growthi | +26.50% | +18.30% |
| FCF margini | +23.70% | +12.72% |
| Operating margini | 33.60% | 22.05% |
| Profit margini | 28.45% | 13.20% |
| ROIC proxyi | 17.42% | 9.84% |
| Return on equityi | 17.42% | 9.84% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 3.16% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 70.20% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.46 | 0.57 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.95 | 58.21 |
| Current ratioi | 4.96 | 2.13 |
| Quick ratioi | 3.64 | 1.36 |
Over the past year, ISRG and MDT have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.40), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ISRG | MDT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -9.75% | -3.62% |
| CAGRi | -9.76% | -3.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.65% | 23.51% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.22 | -0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.31 | -0.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.00% | 30.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.65% | 12.55% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.57% | 12.68% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.03% | 15.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.15% | 5.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.48% | 7.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +16.37% | -19.60% |
| CAGRi | +3.08% | -4.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.57% | 22.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.13 | -0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.19 | -0.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.90% | 43.47% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.57% | 21.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.07% | 26.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.68% | 27.79% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.34% | 7.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.30% | 11.81% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +410.41% | +33.62% |
| CAGRi | +17.71% | +2.94% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.15% | 23.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.52 | 0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.75 | 0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.90% | 45.10% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.57% | 23.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.04% | 17.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.10% | 22.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.34% | 12.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.30% | 19.36% |
| Category | ISRG | MDT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | Medtronic plc |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Medical Instruments & Supplies | Medical Devices |
| Core business | Intuitive Surgical is the dominant manufacturer of robotic-assisted surgical systems, led by the da Vinci platform. Its razor-and-blade business model generates high-margin recurring revenue from instruments and accessories used in each procedure, plus service contracts for its installed base of over 9,000 systems globally. Ion, its flexible robotic bronchoscopy system for lung biopsy, expands addressable markets beyond soft-tissue surgery. | Medtronic is one of the world's largest medical device companies, with four segments: Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, Medical Surgical, and Diabetes. Its product portfolio spans cardiac pacemakers, spinal implants, insulin delivery systems, and surgical tools. The Hugo robotic surgical system is Medtronic's bet on competing with Intuitive Surgical in the robotic surgery market, though it remains early in its international rollout. Revenue is highly diversified across geographies and therapeutic areas. |
| Investor focus | Investors track procedure volume growth (the key recurring revenue driver), da Vinci system placements (the installed base growth), and the rollout of da Vinci 5 — which adds force feedback and improved ergonomics — as a cycle catalyst. | Investors track cardiac device growth (particularly TAVR and cardiac monitoring), the Hugo robotic system's international traction, diabetes segment restructuring, and whether management can return to sustainable mid-single-digit revenue growth after years of underperformance. |
- Dominant robotic surgery platform with 9,000+ installed systems creating a durable recurring revenue moat
- Procedure volumes are growing 15%+ annually driven by expanding surgical indications
- Da Vinci 5 launch with force feedback technology reinforces switching costs and extends the upgrade cycle
- Highly diversified portfolio across cardiovascular, neuro, surgical, and diabetes reduces single-segment risk
- Hugo robotic system provides optionality to compete in the fast-growing surgical robotics market
- Largest medtech installed base globally with deep hospital relationships
- Premium valuation (50x+ earnings) leaves limited margin for execution misses
- Competing platforms from J&J (Ottava) and Medtronic (Hugo) threaten long-term market share
- Hospital budget constraints and capital equipment spending cycles affect system placement timing
- Consistent revenue growth shortfalls versus peers over multiple years
- Hugo robotic system is years behind da Vinci in clinical breadth and installed base
- Diabetes segment faces competitive pressure from Abbott and Dexcom in CGM
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