LIVE
HOLX
Hologic Inc. · Healthcare / Medical Devices & Diagnostics
$76.01
+0.36% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
ILMN
Illumina Inc. · Healthcare / Life Science Tools & Genomics
$161.93
+14.29% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
HOLX
3
ILMN
2
Comparison scoreboard
HOLX LEADS 3/5AI Score
HOLX 36.2
ILMN ✓40.1
1Y Return
HOLX +24.06%
ILMN ✓+79.40%
Fwd P/E
HOLX ✓15.59
ILMN 27.17
Target Up.
HOLX ✓+1.34%
ILMN -8.58%
Op. Margin
HOLX ✓22.99%
ILMN 18.33%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
HOLX vs ILMN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HOLX and ILMN are diagnostics companies at different scales with different post-COVID recovery trajectories. HOLX is a women's health specialist with strong market positions in mammography, STI testing, and cervical cancer screening — managing COVID testing revenue normalization while base business grows. ILMN is the dominant DNA sequencing platform managing GRAIL divestiture aftermath, Chinese competition, and NovaSeq X adoption. Both are recovering from COVID-related revenue distortions.
HOLX vs ILMN — Hologic (women's health diagnostics and imaging specialist with Aptima STI testing and Genius mammography dominance, managing post-COVID revenue normalization from Panther platform) versus Illumina (80%+ global DNA sequencing market share with massive recurring consumable revenue, post-GRAIL refocus on NovaSeq X cycle and clinical genomics expansion).
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
HOLX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ILMN has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+79.40% vs +24.06%), though HOLX trades at the lower forward P/E (15.59x vs 27.17x). On fundamentals, ILMN is growing revenue faster (4.80%), while HOLX maintains the higher operating margin (22.99%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HOLX (+1.34%) than for ILMN (-8.58%).
Normalized 1Y performance
HOLX
ILMN
Recent returns
HOLX
ILMN
Analyst price targets & sentiment
HOLX
Price target range
analyst mean$76.67
current price$76.01
+1.3% upside to analyst mean
ILMN · 23 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$70.00
analyst high$185.00
analyst mean$147.17
current price$161.93
-8.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
HOLX may suit investors who:
- →want exposure to women's health diagnostics with strong market positions in recurring screening tests — STI testing, cervical cancer screening, and breast health imaging
- →believe HOLX's base business growth trajectory is solid and COVID revenue normalization is largely complete — looking for the turning point where underlying growth is more visible
- →value Hologic's consistent M&A strategy expanding molecular diagnostics capabilities while maintaining discipline around capital allocation
- →prefer a healthcare tools company less exposed to China competition and long-read technology disruption than Illumina
ILMN may suit investors who:
- →want to own the dominant DNA sequencing infrastructure platform with 80%+ market share and enormous installed base recurring consumable revenues
- →believe the GRAIL chapter is closed and management is refocused on core genomics business and NovaSeq X adoption driving consumable growth
- →are positive on clinical genomics expansion — oncology testing, rare disease diagnosis, and prenatal screening are growing clinical markets where Illumina is the essential technology
- →are comfortable with Chinese competition risk and long-read technology emergence as Illumina defends market share over the next decade
Performance & AI score
| Metric | HOLX | ILMN |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 36.2 | 40.1 |
| AI rank | #1523 | #1086 |
| Latest close | $76.01 | $161.93 |
| 1M return | +0.36% | +14.29% |
| 6M return | +12.87% | +24.98% |
| 1Y return | +24.06% | +79.40% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HOLX | ILMN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13K (+30.0%) started 2025-04-08 | $17.94K (+79.4%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $10.33K (+3.3%) started 2021-04-08 | $3.65K (-63.5%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $21.49K (+114.9%) started 2016-04-08 | $11.88K (+18.8%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | HOLX | ILMN |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $16.89B | $24.35B |
| Trailing P/E | 31.39 | 29.21 |
| Forward P/E | 15.59 | 27.17 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 3.02 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.13 | 5.86 |
| Analyst target | $76.67 | $147.17 |
| Target upside | +1.34% | -8.58% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | HOLX | ILMN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 2.50% | 4.80% |
| Earnings growth | -9.20% | 6.10% |
| EPS growth | -9.20% | +6.10% |
| FCF margin | +20.56% | +19.25% |
| Operating margin | 22.99% | 18.33% |
| Profit margin | 13.18% | 19.42% |
| ROIC proxy | 10.86% | 33.82% |
| Return on equity | 10.86% | 33.82% |
| Dividend yield | N/A | N/A |
| Beta | 0.70 | 1.49 |
| Debt/equity | 48.05 | 95.07 |
| Current ratio | 4.04 | 1.75 |
| Quick ratio | 3.10 | 1.23 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
HOLX max drawdown11.09%
ILMN max drawdown25.66%
HOLX max wkly drop9.21%
ILMN max wkly drop17.33%
5Y risk snapshot
HOLX max drawdown39.85%
ILMN max drawdown86.23%
HOLX max wkly drop12.73%
ILMN max wkly drop30.76%
10Y risk snapshot
HOLX max drawdown46.24%
ILMN max drawdown86.23%
HOLX max wkly drop32.34%
ILMN max wkly drop30.76%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | HOLX | ILMN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +30.02% | +79.40% |
| CAGR | +30.10% | +79.48% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.02 | 1.37 | |
| Max drawdown | 11.09% | 25.66% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.45% | 10.40% | |
| Max wkly drop | 9.21% | 17.33% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +3.30% | -63.51% |
| CAGR | +0.65% | -18.26% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.05 | -0.32 | |
| Max drawdown | 39.85% | 86.23% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.10% | 14.63% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.73% | 30.76% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +114.90% | +18.82% |
| CAGR | +7.95% | +1.74% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.25 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdown | 46.24% | 86.23% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.53% | 24.81% | |
| Max wkly drop | 32.34% | 30.76% |
Business comparison
| Category | HOLX | ILMN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Hologic Inc. | Illumina Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | N/A | Diagnostics & Research |
| Core business | Hologic is a medical device and diagnostics company focused on women's health — mammography systems (3D Genius AI mammography), cervical cancer screening (ThinPrep Pap tests), STI testing (Aptima molecular diagnostics for HIV, HPV, chlamydia, gonorrhea), surgical products for gynecology, and skeletal health imaging. Hologic's COVID-19 testing via Panther Fusion platform created massive 2020-2022 revenue (COVID testing on their molecular diagnostics platforms), which has since normalized. Core women's health businesses have strong market shares and recurring screening demand. | Illumina dominates the DNA sequencing market with 80%+ global share — instruments, reagents, and consumables enabling genetic research, clinical genomics, oncology testing, and prenatal testing. Illumina's recurring consumable revenue (reagent kits purchased repeatedly per instrument) represents 70%+ of total revenue. Post-GRAIL divestiture (the costly cancer early detection acquisition attempt), Illumina is refocusing on core sequencing business with the NovaSeq X platform upgrade cycle driving consumable growth. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Hologic's base business revenue growth ex-COVID (Panther molecular diagnostics, Genius mammography, surgical products), breast health capital equipment cycle, and M&A strategy (Hologic acquired Bolder Surgical, Mobidiag, and others to expand diagnostics). | Investors focus on Illumina's NovaSeq X instrument cycle, consumable pull-through per instrument, clinical sequencing market development (oncology, rare disease), GRAIL divestiture closure, and Chinese competition from BGI's MGI. |
HOLX strengths
- →Dominant women's health diagnostics position: Hologic's Aptima platform has large installed base in hospital and reference lab settings for STI testing — recurring high-volume molecular diagnostic testing
- →Genius 3D mammography market leadership: Hologic's 3D mammography systems dominate the US breast screening market — equipment sales plus high-margin service/software contracts
- →Post-COVID base business growth: Hologic's non-COVID molecular diagnostics (STI, respiratory, blood-borne pathogen testing) represents durable mid-single-digit growth as COVID revenues normalize
ILMN strengths
- →80%+ genomic sequencing market share with installed base moat: thousands of Illumina instruments globally create an enormous recurring consumable revenue base
- →Clinical genomics expansion: oncology tumor profiling, rare disease diagnosis, prenatal testing are growing clinical markets where Illumina is the primary technology
- →NovaSeq X upgrade cycle: new high-throughput platform driving instrument upgrades and increasing consumable revenue per site
Risks to watch — HOLX
- →Post-COVID revenue cliff: Hologic's COVID testing revenues peaked at $1.6B+ and have nearly disappeared — base business growth must absorb this massive revenue reduction over 2022-2024
- →Geographic concentration in US: Hologic generates 65%+ of revenue in the US — international expansion is a growth opportunity but also limits current diversification
- →Capital equipment cycle risk: mammography system sales follow hospital capital spending cycles — budget tightening at hospital systems can delay equipment upgrade decisions
Risks to watch — ILMN
- →GRAIL distraction and value destruction: years of management focus and billions spent on the failed acquisition diverted resources from core business and damaged credibility
- →BGI/MGI Chinese competition: lower-cost Chinese sequencing instruments gaining international market share outside the US — Illumina's global market share defense is ongoing
- →Long-read technology emergence: PacBio and Oxford Nanopore addressing applications where Illumina's short-read technology underperforms
Frequently asked questions
Free public comparison
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Related comparisons
More comparisons
Browse all 1,000 comparisons →