How do HUM and MOH differ fundamentally?

Humana focuses on Medicare Advantage (MA) — private insurance for Americans 65+ who choose MA instead of traditional Medicare. Molina focuses on Medicaid — government health insurance for low-income individuals contracted to private managed care organizations by states. Different beneficiary populations, government programs, and payment dynamics make these complementary rather than directly competing.

What metrics matter most when comparing HUM and MOH?

For Humana, track Medicare Advantage medical loss ratio (MLR), MA star ratings, and CenterWell primary care clinic count. For Molina, track Medicaid membership by state, Medicaid contract win rate, total premium revenue growth, and MLR across Medicaid/Medicare/marketplace segments.

Which is better for long-term investors — HUM or MOH?

Both serve large, growing government health insurance markets. Humana's MA focus aligns with 10,000+ Americans turning 65 daily — a secular enrollment tailwind. Molina's Medicaid focus aligns with persistent low-income population healthcare needs and Medicaid expansion. Long-term investors can hold both for complementary government managed care exposure to different population segments.

brimindinvest.com / compare / hum-vs-mohLIVE

HUM

Humana Inc. · Healthcare

$360.65

+16.13% this month

VERSUS

⟷

COMPARE

MOH

Molina Healthcare, Inc. · Healthcare

$195.37

+5.96% this month

Scoreboard verdict

Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin

HUM

2

MOH

3

MOH LEADS 3/5

Comparison scoreboard

MOH LEADS 3/5

AI Score

HUM 39.1

MOH ✓41.8

1Y Return

HUM ✓+49.37%

MOH -33.18%

Fwd P/E

HUM 24.10

MOH ✓21.62

Target Up.

HUM -20.46%

MOH ✓-5.01%

Op. Margin

HUM ✓4.67%

MOH 1.71%

Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026

Quick take

HUM vs MOH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

Humana and Molina are both government healthcare insurance companies focused on different government programs. Humana is a Medicare Advantage specialist serving seniors; Molina focuses on Medicaid serving low-income populations. Both face government rate adequacy risks but through different programs. Humana's MA medical cost surge created severe near-term margin pressure; Molina's Medicaid business is more stable but lower-margin with state contract concentration risk.

HUM vs MOH is the Medicare Advantage pure-play with CenterWell integrated care delivery facing acute MA medical cost inflation and margin compression (Humana) versus the Medicaid managed care specialist with multi-state government health insurance contracts and recession-resilient enrollment (Molina) — senior Medicare insurance vs low-income Medicaid managed care.

Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026

MOH holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HUM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+49.37% vs -33.18%), though MOH trades at the lower forward P/E (21.62x vs 24.10x). HUM leads on both revenue growth (23.50%) and operating margin (4.67%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MOH (-5.01%) than for HUM (-20.46%).

Normalized 1Y performance

HUM

MOH

Recent returns

HUM

MOH

Analyst price targets & sentiment

HUM

Price target range

analyst mean$301.63
current price$360.65

-20.5% upside to analyst mean

MOH · 14 analysts

STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL

Buy (2.3/5.0)

Price target range

analyst high$414.00
analyst mean$190.25
current price$195.37

-5.0% upside to analyst mean

Who should consider this stock?

HUM may suit investors who:

→prefer the second-largest Medicare Advantage insurer with deep MA operational expertise and CenterWell integrated care delivery strategy
→value Humana's recovery thesis if MA medical cost normalization and CMS rate adequacy improvements restore historical margins
→want Medicare Advantage exposure to the secular 10,000 Americans-per-day turning 65 enrollment tailwind through 2030
→are comfortable with near-term MA medical cost surge compression, CMS star rating uncertainty, and MA rate adequacy political risk

MOH may suit investors who:

→prefer Medicaid managed care with recession-resilient enrollment growth and multi-state government contract diversification
→value Molina's lower-risk government health insurance model — Medicaid is a social safety net program with political durability across economic cycles
→want managed care exposure to lower-income government health insurance with less premium medical cost inflation sensitivity than MA
→are comfortable with Medicaid state contract re-bid risk, state-level rate adequacy political pressure, and redetermination enrollment headwinds

Performance & AI score

Metric	HUM	MOH
AI score	39.1	41.8
AI rank	#1198	#911
Latest close	$360.65	$195.37
1M return	+16.13%	+5.96%
6M return	+38.56%	+20.38%
1Y return	+49.37%	-33.18%

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)

How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?

Period	HUM	MOH
1Y ago	$14.82K (+48.2%) started 2025-06-18	$6.62K (-33.8%) started 2025-06-18
5Y ago	$8.86K (-11.4%) started 2021-06-21	$7.93K (-20.7%) started 2021-06-21
10Y ago	$21.81K (+118.1%) started 2016-06-20	$37.57K (+275.7%) started 2016-06-20

Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Valuation & upside potential

Metric	HUM	MOH
Market cap	$45.53B	$10.43B
Trailing P/E	40.47	53.69
Forward P/E	24.10	21.62
Price/Sales	N/A	0.40
EV/Revenue	0.28	0.12
Analyst target	$301.63	$190.25
Target upside	-20.46%	-5.01%

Growth, profitability & risk

Metric	HUM	MOH
Revenue growth	23.50%	-4.30%
Earnings growth	-4.60%	-95.00%
EPS growth	-4.60%	-95.00%
FCF margin	+1.04%	+1.76%
Operating margin	4.67%	1.71%
Profit margin	0.82%	0.44%
ROIC proxy	6.28%	4.48%
Return on equity	6.28%	4.48%
Dividend yield	0.93%	N/A
Beta	0.77	0.80
Debt/equity	77.07	96.74
Current ratio	1.77	1.63
Quick ratio	1.26	1.55

Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

1Y risk snapshot

HUM max drawdown47.54%

MOH max drawdown59.96%

HUM max wkly drop28.99%

MOH max wkly drop31.11%

5Y risk snapshot

HUM max drawdown70.23%

MOH max drawdown70.76%

HUM max wkly drop28.99%

MOH max wkly drop31.11%

10Y risk snapshot

HUM max drawdown70.23%

MOH max drawdown70.76%

HUM max wkly drop28.99%

MOH max wkly drop31.11%

Performance metrics by period

Period	Metric	HUM	MOH
1Y	Growth	+48.17%	-33.85%
	CAGR	+48.25%	-33.89%
	Sharpe ratio	0.96	-0.44
	Max drawdown	47.54%	59.96%
	Max daily drop	21.13%	25.51%
	Max wkly drop	28.99%	31.11%
5Y	Growth	-14.37%	-20.71%
	CAGR	-3.06%	-4.54%
	Sharpe ratio	-0.01	-0.02
	Max drawdown	70.23%	70.76%
	Max daily drop	21.13%	25.51%
	Max wkly drop	28.99%	31.11%
10Y	Growth	+103.33%	+275.71%
	CAGR	+7.36%	+14.16%
	Sharpe ratio	0.25	0.42
	Max drawdown	70.23%	70.76%
	Max daily drop	21.13%	25.51%
	Max wkly drop	28.99%	31.11%

Business comparison

Category	HUM	MOH
Company	Humana Inc.	Molina Healthcare, Inc.
Sector	Healthcare	Healthcare
Industry	N/A	Healthcare Plans
Core business	Humana is one of the largest Medicare Advantage (MA) insurance companies in the US, primarily serving Medicare-eligible seniors. Humana also operates Centerwell — a home health, pharmacy, and primary care business (CenterWell Senior Primary Care clinics) that delivers integrated care for its Medicare Advantage members. Humana's strategy is to integrate insurance with care delivery — owning the care sites where MA members receive services. Humana exited commercial employer insurance to focus exclusively on Medicare and military health (Tricare).	Molina Healthcare is a pure-play Medicaid managed care organization (MCO) providing managed care services to low-income individuals through government Medicaid contracts in 18+ states. Molina is also expanding into Medicare Advantage and marketplace (ACA exchange) health insurance. Molina's business depends on state Medicaid contracts — winning new state contracts and retaining existing ones drives enrollment growth. Molina operates as a lower-margin but stable government health insurance contractor.
Investor focus	Investors track Medicare Advantage member enrollment and star ratings (which determine government bonus payments), medical loss ratio (MLR), and Centerwell integrated care economics.	Investors track Medicaid membership by state, Medicaid contract wins and renewals, premium revenue per member per month, and MLR across Medicaid, Medicare, and marketplace segments.

HUM strengths

→Pure-play Medicare Advantage focus creates depth of expertise — Humana is #2 in MA enrollment behind UnitedHealth Group with operational expertise in senior care economics
→CenterWell integration aligns incentives between insurer and care provider — owning care delivery creates opportunities to manage costs by delivering better preventive care
→MA demographics are secular — 10,000 Americans turn 65 daily through 2030, providing structural enrollment tailwind for Medicare products

MOH strengths

→Medicaid is a recession-resilient market — Medicaid enrollment grows during economic downturns as more people qualify for low-income coverage
→Molina's multi-state footprint diversifies Medicaid contract concentration risk — losing one state is less catastrophic with 18+ state contracts
→Medicaid redetermination creates near-term headwind but long-term opportunity — as states verify eligibility post-COVID, Molina can re-win members through marketplace plans

Risks to watch — HUM

→MA medical costs have surged — utilization spike in 2023-2024 from post-COVID pent-up demand and MA members pursuing delayed care has dramatically compressed Humana's margins
→CMS (Medicare regulator) star rating changes affect bonus payments and can significantly impact MA profitability — Humana has experienced star rating pressure
→MA rate adequacy: CMS annual rate updates have not kept pace with cost inflation, creating margin pressure across the MA industry

Risks to watch — MOH

→Medicaid contracts must be re-bid periodically — losing a major state contract can create significant revenue disruption
→Medicaid rates are set by states — political pressure to cut Medicaid spending can compress Molina's payment rates without corresponding cost reduction
→Medicaid redetermination (states resuming eligibility checks paused during COVID) has reduced Molina's Medicaid enrollment as ineligible members are removed

Frequently asked questions

Humana offers higher recovery upside if MA medical costs normalize and margins restore to historical levels — but the timing is uncertain. Molina offers more stable Medicaid managed care with less extreme margin volatility. For MA recovery speculation with higher upside/risk, Humana; for more stable government managed care with Medicaid, Molina.

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