HUM vs MOH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Humana and Molina are both government healthcare insurance companies focused on different government programs. Humana is a Medicare Advantage specialist serving seniors; Molina focuses on Medicaid serving low-income populations. Both face government rate adequacy risks but through different programs. Humana's MA medical cost surge created severe near-term margin pressure; Molina's Medicaid business is more stable but lower-margin with state contract concentration risk.
HUM vs MOH is the Medicare Advantage pure-play with CenterWell integrated care delivery facing acute MA medical cost inflation and margin compression (Humana) versus the Medicaid managed care specialist with multi-state government health insurance contracts and recession-resilient enrollment (Molina) — senior Medicare insurance vs low-income Medicaid managed care.
HUM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HUM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+52.83% vs -1.22%), though MOH has the better forward P/E setup (20.53x vs 23.27x for HUM). HUM leads on both revenue growth (26.20%) and operating margin (3.46%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HUM (+8.58%) than for MOH (+4.56%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the second-largest Medicare Advantage insurer with deep MA operational expertise and CenterWell integrated care delivery strategy
- value Humana's recovery thesis if MA medical cost normalization and CMS rate adequacy improvements restore historical margins
- want Medicare Advantage exposure to the secular 10,000 Americans-per-day turning 65 enrollment tailwind through 2030
- are comfortable with near-term MA medical cost surge compression, CMS star rating uncertainty, and MA rate adequacy political risk
- prefer Medicaid managed care with recession-resilient enrollment growth and multi-state government contract diversification
- value Molina's lower-risk government health insurance model — Medicaid is a social safety net program with political durability across economic cycles
- want managed care exposure to lower-income government health insurance with less premium medical cost inflation sensitivity than MA
- are comfortable with Medicaid state contract re-bid risk, state-level rate adequacy political pressure, and redetermination enrollment headwinds
| Metric | HUM | MOH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 45.4 | 46.2 |
| AI ranki | #683 | #644 |
| Latest closei | $389.63 | $189.64 |
| 1M returni | +1.06% | -5.18% |
| 6M returni | +134.72% | +44.25% |
| 1Y returni | +52.83% | -1.22% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HUM | MOH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.27K (+52.7%) started 2025-09-29 | $9.83K (-1.7%) started 2025-09-29 |
| 5Y ago | $10.49K (+4.9%) started 2021-09-29 | $6.77K (-32.3%) started 2021-09-29 |
| 10Y ago | $25.37K (+153.7%) started 2016-09-29 | $33.1K (+231.0%) started 2016-09-29 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HUM | MOH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $46.3B | $10.44B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 36.51 | 1250.00 |
| Forward P/Ei | 23.27 | 20.53 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 0.40 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| Analyst targeti | $418.61 | $209.12 |
| Target upsidei | +8.58% | +4.56% |
| Metric | HUM | MOH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 26.20% | -5.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 27.10% | -75.30% |
| EPS growthi | +27.10% | -75.30% |
| FCF margini | +1.33% | +1.65% |
| Operating margini | 3.46% | 1.40% |
| Profit margini | 0.88% | -0.02% |
| ROIC proxyi | 6.89% | -0.16% |
| Return on equityi | 6.89% | -0.16% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.92% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 33.46% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Debt/equityi | 76.48 | 94.77 |
| Current ratioi | 1.74 | 1.68 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.28 | 1.61 |
Over the past year, HUM and MOH have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.36), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HUM | MOH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +52.66% | -1.72% |
| CAGRi | +52.85% | -1.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.29% | 52.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.05 | 0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.48 | 0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.08% | 39.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.92% | 21.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.98% | 16.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.74% | 19.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.13% | 25.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.99% | 31.11% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +1.58% | -32.30% |
| CAGRi | +0.31% | -7.51% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.06% | 40.41% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | -0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.11 | -0.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.23% | 70.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.14% | 54.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.08% | 25.42% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.96% | 32.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.13% | 25.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.99% | 31.11% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +136.88% | +230.96% |
| CAGRi | +9.01% | +12.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.69% | 40.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.30 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.41 | 0.55 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.23% | 70.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.14% | 54.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.69% | 17.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.73% | 24.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.13% | 25.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.99% | 31.11% |
| Category | HUM | MOH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Humana Inc. | Molina Healthcare, Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Healthcare Plans | Healthcare Plans |
| Core business | Humana is one of the largest Medicare Advantage (MA) insurance companies in the US, primarily serving Medicare-eligible seniors. Humana also operates Centerwell — a home health, pharmacy, and primary care business (CenterWell Senior Primary Care clinics) that delivers integrated care for its Medicare Advantage members. Humana's strategy is to integrate insurance with care delivery — owning the care sites where MA members receive services. Humana exited commercial employer insurance to focus exclusively on Medicare and military health (Tricare). | Molina Healthcare is a pure-play Medicaid managed care organization (MCO) providing managed care services to low-income individuals through government Medicaid contracts in 18+ states. Molina is also expanding into Medicare Advantage and marketplace (ACA exchange) health insurance. Molina's business depends on state Medicaid contracts — winning new state contracts and retaining existing ones drives enrollment growth. Molina operates as a lower-margin but stable government health insurance contractor. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Medicare Advantage member enrollment and star ratings (which determine government bonus payments), medical loss ratio (MLR), and Centerwell integrated care economics. | Investors track Medicaid membership by state, Medicaid contract wins and renewals, premium revenue per member per month, and MLR across Medicaid, Medicare, and marketplace segments. |
- Pure-play Medicare Advantage focus creates depth of expertise — Humana is #2 in MA enrollment behind UnitedHealth Group with operational expertise in senior care economics
- CenterWell integration aligns incentives between insurer and care provider — owning care delivery creates opportunities to manage costs by delivering better preventive care
- MA demographics are secular — 10,000 Americans turn 65 daily through 2030, providing structural enrollment tailwind for Medicare products
- Medicaid is a recession-resilient market — Medicaid enrollment grows during economic downturns as more people qualify for low-income coverage
- Molina's multi-state footprint diversifies Medicaid contract concentration risk — losing one state is less catastrophic with 18+ state contracts
- Medicaid redetermination creates near-term headwind but long-term opportunity — as states verify eligibility post-COVID, Molina can re-win members through marketplace plans
- MA medical costs have surged — utilization spike in 2023-2024 from post-COVID pent-up demand and MA members pursuing delayed care has dramatically compressed Humana's margins
- CMS (Medicare regulator) star rating changes affect bonus payments and can significantly impact MA profitability — Humana has experienced star rating pressure
- MA rate adequacy: CMS annual rate updates have not kept pace with cost inflation, creating margin pressure across the MA industry
- Medicaid contracts must be re-bid periodically — losing a major state contract can create significant revenue disruption
- Medicaid rates are set by states — political pressure to cut Medicaid spending can compress Molina's payment rates without corresponding cost reduction
- Medicaid redetermination (states resuming eligibility checks paused during COVID) has reduced Molina's Medicaid enrollment as ineligible members are removed
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