HII vs NOC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HII and Northrop Grumman are both premier US defense contractors with long-duration sole-source government programs, but in different domains. HII dominates naval shipbuilding; Northrop dominates advanced air, space, and nuclear systems. Both have multi-decade programs providing revenue visibility; both face execution challenges on large fixed-price programs.
HII vs NOC is the sole US nuclear aircraft carrier builder with naval shipbuilding dominance (HII) versus the advanced stealth bomber, space systems, and nuclear modernization leader (Northrop Grumman) — both have irreplaceable defense programs but different margin and growth profiles.
HII holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HII leads on both 1-year return (-0.67%) and forward P/E quality (13.88x vs 17.92x for NOC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, HII is growing revenue faster (10.90%), while NOC maintains the higher operating margin (11.60%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HII (+27.44%) than for NOC (+18.62%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the only builder of US nuclear aircraft carriers with an irreplaceable national security role in naval shipbuilding
- value HII's Mission Technologies growth as a higher-margin IT services diversification alongside core shipbuilding revenue
- want naval defense exposure with multi-decade Virginia-class submarine and Gerald R. Ford carrier programs
- are comfortable with shipbuilding margin pressure from fixed-price contracts and specialized workforce constraints
- prefer advanced stealth, space, and nuclear deterrence programs with B-21 Raider and GBSD Sentinel as multi-decade anchor programs
- value Northrop's higher-technology, higher-margin advanced systems profile versus HII's capital-intensive shipbuilding
- want defense exposure to stealth air power, space intelligence, and nuclear modernization — all long-duration national security priorities
- are comfortable with B-21 cost overrun near-term earnings pressure and GBSD program execution timeline risks
| Metric | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.3 | 51.0 |
| AI ranki | #1267 | #485 |
| Latest closei | $272.86 | $527.39 |
| 1M returni | -12.48% | -9.51% |
| 6M returni | -34.79% | -26.15% |
| 1Y returni | -0.67% | -8.08% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.93K (-0.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.19K (-8.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $16.59K (+66.0%) started 2021-09-20 | $16.94K (+69.4%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $24.88K (+148.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $33.08K (+230.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $11.39B | $77.51B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.23 | 17.33 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.88 | 17.92 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.74 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.10 | 2.15 |
| Analyst targeti | $368.42 | $647.14 |
| Target upsidei | +27.44% | +18.62% |
| Metric | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.90% | 5.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 36.50% | -5.80% |
| EPS growthi | +36.50% | -5.80% |
| FCF margini | -2.28% | +5.78% |
| Operating margini | 7.08% | 11.60% |
| Profit margini | 5.01% | 10.48% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.97% | 26.96% |
| Return on equityi | 12.97% | 26.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.89% | 1.81% |
| Payout ratioi | 32.70% | 29.88% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.24 | -0.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 55.25 | 95.35 |
| Current ratioi | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.10 | 1.01 |
Over the past year, HII and NOC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.54), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -0.67% | -8.08% |
| CAGRi | -0.67% | -8.09% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.26% | 27.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.06 | -0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.08 | -0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.77% | 35.42% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.86% | 31.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.92% | 15.71% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.90% | 19.73% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.59% | 6.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.66% | 13.55% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +52.72% | +59.95% |
| CAGRi | +8.85% | +9.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.17% | 25.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.39 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.21% | 35.42% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.86% | 31.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.31% | 10.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.29% | 13.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.16% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.38% | 13.85% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +108.05% | +186.09% |
| CAGRi | +7.60% | +11.09% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.19% | 25.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.34 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.70% | 36.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.86% | 31.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.23% | 10.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.11% | 13.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.16% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.38% | 16.45% |
| Category | HII | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | HII Inc. | Northrop Grumman Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | HII (formerly Huntington Ingalls Industries) is the largest US military shipbuilder, constructing nuclear-powered aircraft carriers (Gerald R. Ford class), Virginia-class nuclear submarines, destroyers, and amphibious warships. Its Newport News Shipbuilding division is the sole builder of US nuclear aircraft carriers. Its Mission Technologies segment provides IT, cybersecurity, and analytics services alongside the core shipbuilding business. | Northrop Grumman is a leading advanced technology defense contractor specializing in autonomous systems, space systems, cyber, and advanced weapons. Key programs include the B-21 Raider stealth bomber (multi-decade strategic bomber), the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD/Sentinel nuclear missile modernization), the James Webb Space Telescope, and missile defense systems. Segments span air, land, space, and cyberspace. |
| Investor focus | Investors track shipbuilding revenue and program margins, nuclear carrier construction progress, Mission Technologies growth, and the order backlog driven by Navy shipbuilding programs. | Investors track B-21 Raider production and unit pricing, GBSD Sentinel ICBM program milestones, Space Systems revenue growth, and Mission Systems cybersecurity and C4ISR contract wins. |
- Sole builder of US nuclear aircraft carriers — no competitor exists or can easily develop the capability, making Newport News a permanent national security asset
- Virginia-class submarine program (shared with General Dynamics) provides multi-decade backlog from Navy submarine demand
- Mission Technologies IT services segment diversifies HII beyond pure shipbuilding into higher-margin defense services
- B-21 Raider is the next-generation US Air Force stealth bomber — a sole-source multi-decade program generating production and sustainment revenue through 2060+
- GBSD Sentinel ICBM modernization is the largest nuclear deterrent program — sole-source DoD contract providing exceptional revenue visibility
- Space systems capabilities (satellite, intelligence) serve both defense and intelligence community with classified program depth
- Shipbuilding margin pressure from fixed-price contracts, labor challenges, and supply chain disruption is an ongoing concern
- Nuclear carrier construction is a multi-year program — cost overruns on long-duration contracts hurt margins significantly
- Naval shipbuilding workforce is specialized and constrained — talent pipeline is a long-term competitive challenge
- B-21 Raider development has incurred significant cost overruns absorbed under fixed-price contract terms — a near-term earnings headwind
- GBSD program delays and technical challenges add execution risk to the nuclear modernization timeline
- Entirely dependent on US government and allied defense spending — no commercial aerospace diversification
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