LIVE
PAYX
Paychex, Inc. · Technology
$98.24
+3.98% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. · Technology
$218.41
-0.92% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
PAYX
2
ADP
3
Comparison scoreboard
ADP LEADS 3/5AI Score
PAYX 37.9
ADP ✓48.8
1Y Return
PAYX -35.59%
ADP ✓-29.00%
Fwd P/E
PAYX ✓17.07
ADP 18.55
Target Up.
PAYX +1.50%
ADP ✓+9.10%
Op. Margin
PAYX ✓44.38%
ADP 30.18%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
PAYX vs ADP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Paychex and ADP are the two dominant US payroll and HR services companies, both serving millions of businesses with essential recurring revenue from payroll processing. ADP is significantly larger, serving businesses from SMBs to global enterprises. Paychex is more SMB-focused with deep penetration into the small business market. Both pay reliable dividends from consistent free cash flow and benefit from rising interest rates through float income.
PAYX vs ADP is the SMB-focused payroll specialist with PEO services and deep small business client relationships (Paychex) versus the global payroll and HCM leader serving all sizes from SMBs to Fortune 500 enterprises (ADP) — both are excellent quality compounders in essential payroll and HR infrastructure.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
ADP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ADP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-29.00% vs -35.59%), though PAYX trades at the lower forward P/E (17.07x vs 18.55x). PAYX leads on both revenue growth (19.90%) and operating margin (44.38%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ADP (+9.10%) than for PAYX (+1.50%).
Normalized 1Y performance
PAYX
ADP
Recent returns
PAYX
ADP
Analyst price targets & sentiment
PAYX · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (3.2/5.0)
Price target range
analyst high$165.00
analyst mean$102.14
current price$98.24
+1.5% upside to analyst mean
ADP · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.7/5.0)
Price target range
analyst high$350.00
analyst mean$246.80
current price$218.41
+9.1% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
PAYX may suit investors who:
- →prefer a focused SMB payroll and HR services leader with 750,000+ clients and high switching-cost recurring revenue
- →value Paychex's PEO co-employment model enabling SMBs to access enterprise-grade benefits and HR expertise
- →want payroll sector dividend income with a growing track record of consistent dividend increases from stable free cash flow
- →are comfortable with SMB employment sensitivity to recessions and competition from cloud-native payroll platforms like Gusto and Rippling
ADP may suit investors who:
- →prefer the world's largest payroll and HCM company with global enterprise payroll as a defensible market segment
- →value 49+ years of consecutive dividend increases as one of the most reliable dividend Aristocrat records in the S&P 500
- →want payroll and HCM exposure across all business sizes with global multi-jurisdiction capabilities no smaller competitor can match
- →are comfortable with large enterprise competition from Workday, SAP, and Oracle in HCM, and float income headwinds from Fed rate cuts
Performance & AI score
| Metric | PAYX | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 37.9 | 48.8 |
| AI rank | #1330 | #540 |
| Latest close | $98.24 | $218.41 |
| 1M return | +3.98% | -0.92% |
| 6M return | -15.82% | -17.73% |
| 1Y return | -35.59% | -29.00% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PAYX | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.54K (-34.6%) started 2025-06-18 | $7.12K (-28.8%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $11.88K (+18.8%) started 2021-06-21 | $13.01K (+30.1%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $31.53K (+215.3%) started 2016-06-20 | $36.29K (+262.9%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | PAYX | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $36.05B | $90.42B |
| Trailing P/E | 22.21 | 21.10 |
| Forward P/E | 17.07 | 18.55 |
| Price/Sales | 10.58 | 6.57 |
| EV/Revenue | 9.90 | 4.24 |
| Analyst target | $102.14 | $246.80 |
| Target upside | +1.50% | +9.10% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | PAYX | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 19.90% | 7.00% |
| Earnings growth | 9.10% | 10.50% |
| EPS growth | +9.10% | +10.50% |
| FCF margin | +50.33% | +21.99% |
| Operating margin | 44.38% | 30.18% |
| Profit margin | 26.63% | 20.12% |
| ROIC proxy | 40.26% | 71.21% |
| Return on equity | 40.26% | 71.21% |
| Dividend yield | 4.73% | 3.01% |
| Beta | 0.89 | 0.84 |
| Debt/equity | 124.91 | 69.26 |
| Current ratio | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| Quick ratio | 0.30 | 0.13 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
PAYX max drawdown43.80%
ADP max drawdown39.37%
PAYX max wkly drop8.17%
ADP max wkly drop10.27%
5Y risk snapshot
PAYX max drawdown46.45%
ADP max drawdown42.23%
PAYX max wkly drop11.37%
ADP max wkly drop12.17%
10Y risk snapshot
PAYX max drawdown46.45%
ADP max drawdown42.23%
PAYX max wkly drop27.38%
ADP max wkly drop22.45%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | PAYX | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -34.65% | -28.80% |
| CAGR | -34.69% | -28.84% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.60 | -1.47 | |
| Max drawdown | 43.80% | 39.37% | |
| Max daily drop | 9.40% | 6.58% | |
| Max wkly drop | 8.17% | 10.27% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +5.83% | +20.11% |
| CAGR | +1.14% | +3.74% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.02 | 0.07 | |
| Max drawdown | 46.45% | 42.23% | |
| Max daily drop | 9.40% | 9.20% | |
| Max wkly drop | 11.37% | 12.17% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +132.38% | +195.51% |
| CAGR | +8.80% | +11.45% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.38 | |
| Max drawdown | 46.45% | 42.23% | |
| Max daily drop | 19.48% | 15.25% | |
| Max wkly drop | 27.38% | 22.45% |
Business comparison
| Category | PAYX | ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Paychex, Inc. | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Software - Application | Software - Application |
| Core business | Paychex is a leading payroll processing and HR services company primarily serving small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). Beyond payroll, Paychex provides benefits administration, retirement services, insurance, and HR consulting (PEO services). Paychex serves 750,000+ clients and processes payroll for millions of US employees. Its SMB focus creates a recurring revenue base from businesses that require ongoing payroll processing regardless of economic cycles. | ADP is the world's largest payroll and human capital management (HCM) company, serving businesses of all sizes from SMBs to large enterprises, including global multinationals. Its HCM platforms (Workforce Now for SMBs, Vantage HCM for enterprise) cover payroll, benefits, talent management, and analytics. ADP's Employer Services and PEO segments serve distinct market tiers. ADP is one of the most reliable dividend payers and has raised dividends for 49+ consecutive years. |
| Investor focus | Investors track client count, revenue per client, interest earned on float (payroll funds held before distribution — a meaningful income stream as interest rates rise), and HR solutions penetration into existing payroll clients. | Investors track Employer Services revenue growth, PEO growth (worksite employees and revenues), client retention rates, and float income from payroll funds held during processing. |
PAYX strengths
- →SMB focus in payroll creates 750,000+ clients providing enormous scale with high switching costs once payroll/HR is integrated into a business's operations
- →PEO (Professional Employer Organization) services allow Paychex to co-employ clients' employees, providing HR management and benefits economies of scale for SMBs
- →Rising interest rate environments benefit Paychex through float income — funds held between payroll collection and employee payment earn interest
ADP strengths
- →World's largest payroll and HCM company with extraordinary scale processing payroll for 40M+ workers globally
- →Employer Services enterprise payroll serves large, complex organizations with global, multi-jurisdiction requirements that smaller payroll players cannot serve
- →49+ consecutive years of dividend increases make ADP one of the most reliable dividend Aristocrats in the S&P 500
Risks to watch — PAYX
- →SMB market is the first to feel employment contraction in recessions — lower SMB payrolls directly reduce Paychex revenue per-employee-processed
- →Competition from Gusto, Rippling, and Workday targeting SMBs with modern cloud-native payroll and HR platforms
- →Interest rate decreases reduce float income — a meaningful revenue headwind when the Fed rate-cut cycle begins
Risks to watch — ADP
- →Large enterprise payroll market is highly competitive from Workday, SAP, and Oracle in HCM — ADP must continuously modernize its enterprise platforms to retain large clients
- →ADP faces same float income headwind as Paychex when the Fed cuts interest rates
- →Very large scale creates organizational complexity — ADP's platform investment must keep pace with cloud-native competitors despite the operational advantages of scale
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