AFRM vs UPST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Affirm and Upstart are both financial technology lending companies using alternative approaches to traditional bank credit, but in different market segments. Affirm focuses on point-of-sale BNPL lending integrated at merchant checkout. Upstart focuses on personal and auto loan origination for bank partners using AI underwriting. Both benefit from fintech lending growth; both are highly sensitive to interest rates and credit cycle conditions.
AFRM vs UPST is BNPL merchant checkout lending with deep e-commerce merchant integration (Affirm) versus AI-powered personal and auto loan origination for bank partners (Upstart) — both are interest rate and credit cycle sensitive fintech lenders with different market approaches and customer relationships.
AFRM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AFRM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+5.85% vs -49.44%), though UPST has the better forward P/E setup (8.28x vs 14.45x for AFRM). On fundamentals, UPST is growing revenue faster (42.30%), while AFRM maintains the higher operating margin (12.63%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UPST (+43.41%) than for AFRM (+39.12%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a BNPL leader deeply integrated with Shopify, Amazon, and Walmart as the primary US e-commerce checkout financing option
- value Affirm's growing consumer base of millions of repeat BNPL users establishing loyalty outside the traditional credit card system
- want fintech lending exposure with a consumer-facing brand that benefits from e-commerce volume growth as the primary driver
- are comfortable with consumer credit cycle risk, Klarna/PayPal BNPL competition, and interest rate sensitivity on held loans
- prefer an AI lending platform for banks enabling more inclusive personal and auto loan credit decisions beyond FICO scoring
- value Upstart's platform model (fee per origination, limited balance sheet exposure) as capital-light versus balance sheet lenders
- want exposure to AI credit modeling disruption of traditional bank underwriting in personal and auto loan markets
- are comfortable with extreme interest rate sensitivity in origination volume and the 2022–2023 forced balance sheet loan purchases as credit risk during market stress
| Metric | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 27.3 | 24.5 |
| AI ranki | #2411 | #3090 |
| Latest closei | $75.59 | $23.38 |
| 1M returni | +1.12% | -3.98% |
| 3M returni | -3.67% | -22.58% |
| 6M returni | +15.26% | -18.54% |
| 1Y returni | +5.85% | -49.44% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.57K (+5.7%) started 2025-11-05 | $5.06K (-49.4%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $4.6K (-54.0%) started 2021-11-05 | $705.15 (-92.9%) started 2021-11-05 |
| 10Y ago | $7.84K (-21.6%) started 2021-01-13 | $7.93K (-20.7%) started 2020-12-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $24.11B | $2.74B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.92 | 54.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.45 | 8.28 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.61 | 3.38 |
| Analyst targeti | $99.39 | $40.40 |
| Target upsidei | +39.12% | +43.41% |
| Metric | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 33.00% | 42.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 2186.90% | 211.20% |
| EPS growthi | +2186.90% | +211.20% |
| FCF margini | +11.23% | -10.30% |
| Operating margini | 12.63% | 7.20% |
| Profit margini | 45.29% | 4.69% |
| ROIC proxyi | 45.13% | 7.94% |
| Return on equityi | 45.13% | 7.94% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 3.61 | 2.17 |
| Debt/equityi | 182.77 | 258.01 |
| Current ratioi | 11.98 | 10.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 8.36 | 2.39 |
Over the past year, AFRM and UPST have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.73), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +5.69% | -49.44% |
| CAGRi | +5.70% | -49.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.35% | 65.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | -0.79 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.46 | -1.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.79% | 57.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.88% | 53.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.63% | 34.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.43% | 38.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.99% | 15.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.23% | 19.77% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -53.97% | -92.95% |
| CAGRi | -14.38% | -41.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 91.59% | 102.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | -0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.35 | -0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 94.57% | 96.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.97% | 93.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 72.10% | 86.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 73.89% | 86.79% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.63% | 56.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 53.94% | 70.08% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -21.56% | -20.67% |
| CAGRi | -4.09% | -3.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 93.26% | 110.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.57 | 0.75 | |
| Max drawdowni | 94.71% | 96.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 55.14% | 94.01% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 67.77% | 77.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 70.88% | 82.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.63% | 56.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 53.94% | 70.08% |
| Category | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Affirm Holdings, Inc. | Upstart Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Credit Services | Credit Services |
| Core business | Affirm is a leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) and point-of-sale lending platform integrated with thousands of merchants at checkout. Consumers use Affirm to split purchases into installments (0% and interest-bearing) rather than using credit cards. Key partnerships include Shopify, Amazon, Walmart, and Apple Pay Later (US market). Affirm earns revenue from merchant fees and interest income on loans it holds or sells to investors. | Upstart is an AI-powered personal loan platform that partners with banks to originate personal and auto loans using its AI credit models rather than traditional FICO score underwriting. Upstart claims its AI model approves more applicants at lower default rates than traditional FICO-based underwriting, enabling banks to offer credit to more borrowers without increasing risk. Upstart earns platform fees from originating loans — it does not typically hold loans, instead placing them with bank partners and capital markets investors. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Gross Merchandise Volume (total purchase value financed), Revenue Less Transaction Costs (RLTC) as the primary margin metric, credit performance (delinquency and charge-off rates), and active consumer and merchant count. | Investors track loan origination volume, conversion rate (loan applicants approved vs. applications submitted), bank and credit union partner count, auto lending expansion, and the credit performance of Upstart-originated loans vs FICO benchmarks. |
- Integrated at checkout with Shopify, Amazon, and Walmart — the three most important US e-commerce platforms — providing unmatched merchant distribution
- 0% APR products offer consumers a credit card alternative that merchants fund as a cost of conversion improvement, creating a symbiotic three-way value proposition
- Large consumer dataset from millions of transactions enables credit risk modeling advantages as Affirm's loan book grows
- AI credit model claims to identify credit-worthy borrowers that FICO scoring misses, enabling banks to expand lending without increasing expected losses
- Platform model (fee per origination, not holding loans) means Upstart has limited direct credit risk exposure relative to its loan volume
- Auto lending expansion adds a larger market opportunity beyond unsecured personal loans
- Consumer credit quality deteriorates during economic stress — higher interest rate environment and recession risk directly impacts BNPL repayment rates
- Competition from PayPal BNPL, Klarna, Afterpay (owned by Block), and bank-issued credit card installment products
- Affirm holds some loans on balance sheet — credit risk is not entirely passed to third-party investors, creating direct exposure to delinquency rates
- Loan origination volume is highly sensitive to interest rates — rising rates compress consumer loan demand and bank appetite for new loan originations significantly
- Upstart had to purchase loans onto its own balance sheet during the 2022–2023 rate environment when capital market demand for its loans dropped — creating credit risk it is designed to avoid
- AI model performance in deep economic downturns is unproven — the model has not been fully tested through a prolonged recession
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