LIVE
AFRM
Affirm Holdings, Inc. · Technology
$73.92
+13.20% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. · Technology
$32.43
+15.49% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
AFRM
1
UPST
3
Comparison scoreboard
UPST LEADS 3/5AI Score
AFRM 25.7
UPST ✓29.5
1Y Return
AFRM ✓+19.84%
UPST -45.11%
Fwd P/E
AFRM 19.57
UPST ✓9.47
Target Up.
AFRM +12.74%
UPST ✓+23.75%
Op. Margin
AFRM N/A
UPST N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
AFRM vs UPST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Affirm and Upstart are both financial technology lending companies using alternative approaches to traditional bank credit, but in different market segments. Affirm focuses on point-of-sale BNPL lending integrated at merchant checkout. Upstart focuses on personal and auto loan origination for bank partners using AI underwriting. Both benefit from fintech lending growth; both are highly sensitive to interest rates and credit cycle conditions.
AFRM vs UPST is BNPL merchant checkout lending with deep e-commerce merchant integration (Affirm) versus AI-powered personal and auto loan origination for bank partners (Upstart) — both are interest rate and credit cycle sensitive fintech lenders with different market approaches and customer relationships.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
UPST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AFRM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+19.84% vs -45.11%), though UPST trades at the lower forward P/E (9.47x vs 19.57x). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UPST (+23.75%) than for AFRM (+12.74%).
Normalized 1Y performance
AFRM
UPST
Recent returns
AFRM
UPST
Analyst price targets & sentiment
AFRM · 27 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$55.10
analyst high$100.00
analyst mean$83.34
current price$73.92
+12.7% upside to analyst mean
UPST · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$20.00
analyst high$80.00
analyst mean$40.13
current price$32.43
+23.8% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
AFRM may suit investors who:
- →prefer a BNPL leader deeply integrated with Shopify, Amazon, and Walmart as the primary US e-commerce checkout financing option
- →value Affirm's growing consumer base of millions of repeat BNPL users establishing loyalty outside the traditional credit card system
- →want fintech lending exposure with a consumer-facing brand that benefits from e-commerce volume growth as the primary driver
- →are comfortable with consumer credit cycle risk, Klarna/PayPal BNPL competition, and interest rate sensitivity on held loans
UPST may suit investors who:
- →prefer an AI lending platform for banks enabling more inclusive personal and auto loan credit decisions beyond FICO scoring
- →value Upstart's platform model (fee per origination, limited balance sheet exposure) as capital-light versus balance sheet lenders
- →want exposure to AI credit modeling disruption of traditional bank underwriting in personal and auto loan markets
- →are comfortable with extreme interest rate sensitivity in origination volume and the 2022–2023 forced balance sheet loan purchases as credit risk during market stress
Performance & AI score
| Metric | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 25.7 | 29.5 |
| AI rank | #2707 | #2339 |
| Latest close | $73.92 | $32.43 |
| 1M return | +13.20% | +15.49% |
| 6M return | +2.61% | -28.01% |
| 1Y return | +19.84% | -45.11% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.98K (+19.8%) started 2025-06-18 | $5.49K (-45.1%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $10.84K (+8.4%) started 2021-06-18 | $2.62K (-73.8%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $7.67K (-23.3%) started 2021-01-13 | $11K (+10.0%) started 2020-12-16 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $24.76B | $3.1B |
| Trailing P/E | 67.20 | 79.10 |
| Forward P/E | 19.57 | 9.47 |
| Price/Sales | 6.23 | 2.64 |
| EV/Revenue | 8.14 | 3.91 |
| Analyst target | $83.34 | $40.13 |
| Target upside | +12.74% | +23.75% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 32.60% | 44.60% |
| Earnings growth | 3529.30% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +3529.30% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +7.58% | -26.63% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 9.63% | 4.21% |
| ROIC proxy | 11.49% | 7.01% |
| Return on equity | 11.49% | 7.01% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 3.70 | 2.28 |
| Debt/equity | 240.28 | 269.84 |
| Current ratio | 13.54 | 11.65 |
| Quick ratio | 9.57 | 2.84 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
AFRM max drawdown53.86%
UPST max drawdown71.21%
AFRM max wkly drop17.52%
UPST max wkly drop23.39%
5Y risk snapshot
AFRM max drawdown94.71%
UPST max drawdown96.90%
AFRM max wkly drop53.94%
UPST max wkly drop70.08%
10Y risk snapshot
AFRM max drawdown94.71%
UPST max drawdown96.90%
AFRM max wkly drop53.94%
UPST max wkly drop70.08%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +19.84% | -45.11% |
| CAGR | +19.86% | -45.13% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | -0.56 | |
| Max drawdown | 53.86% | 71.21% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.99% | 18.74% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.52% | 23.39% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +8.42% | -73.82% |
| CAGR | +1.63% | -23.51% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.44 | 0.22 | |
| Max drawdown | 94.71% | 96.90% | |
| Max daily drop | 22.63% | 56.42% | |
| Max wkly drop | 53.94% | 70.08% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -23.29% | +10.04% |
| CAGR | -4.77% | +1.75% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.37 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdown | 94.71% | 96.90% | |
| Max daily drop | 22.63% | 56.42% | |
| Max wkly drop | 53.94% | 70.08% |
Business comparison
| Category | AFRM | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Affirm Holdings, Inc. | Upstart Holdings, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Affirm is a leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) and point-of-sale lending platform integrated with thousands of merchants at checkout. Consumers use Affirm to split purchases into installments (0% and interest-bearing) rather than using credit cards. Key partnerships include Shopify, Amazon, Walmart, and Apple Pay Later (US market). Affirm earns revenue from merchant fees and interest income on loans it holds or sells to investors. | Upstart is an AI-powered personal loan platform that partners with banks to originate personal and auto loans using its AI credit models rather than traditional FICO score underwriting. Upstart claims its AI model approves more applicants at lower default rates than traditional FICO-based underwriting, enabling banks to offer credit to more borrowers without increasing risk. Upstart earns platform fees from originating loans — it does not typically hold loans, instead placing them with bank partners and capital markets investors. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Gross Merchandise Volume (total purchase value financed), Revenue Less Transaction Costs (RLTC) as the primary margin metric, credit performance (delinquency and charge-off rates), and active consumer and merchant count. | Investors track loan origination volume, conversion rate (loan applicants approved vs. applications submitted), bank and credit union partner count, auto lending expansion, and the credit performance of Upstart-originated loans vs FICO benchmarks. |
AFRM strengths
- →Integrated at checkout with Shopify, Amazon, and Walmart — the three most important US e-commerce platforms — providing unmatched merchant distribution
- →0% APR products offer consumers a credit card alternative that merchants fund as a cost of conversion improvement, creating a symbiotic three-way value proposition
- →Large consumer dataset from millions of transactions enables credit risk modeling advantages as Affirm's loan book grows
UPST strengths
- →AI credit model claims to identify credit-worthy borrowers that FICO scoring misses, enabling banks to expand lending without increasing expected losses
- →Platform model (fee per origination, not holding loans) means Upstart has limited direct credit risk exposure relative to its loan volume
- →Auto lending expansion adds a larger market opportunity beyond unsecured personal loans
Risks to watch — AFRM
- →Consumer credit quality deteriorates during economic stress — higher interest rate environment and recession risk directly impacts BNPL repayment rates
- →Competition from PayPal BNPL, Klarna, Afterpay (owned by Block), and bank-issued credit card installment products
- →Affirm holds some loans on balance sheet — credit risk is not entirely passed to third-party investors, creating direct exposure to delinquency rates
Risks to watch — UPST
- →Loan origination volume is highly sensitive to interest rates — rising rates compress consumer loan demand and bank appetite for new loan originations significantly
- →Upstart had to purchase loans onto its own balance sheet during the 2022–2023 rate environment when capital market demand for its loans dropped — creating credit risk it is designed to avoid
- →AI model performance in deep economic downturns is unproven — the model has not been fully tested through a prolonged recession
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