Data as of:
LIVE
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc. · Financial Market Infrastructure
$93.54
-2.92% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · Financial Market Infrastructure
$155.47
-1.13% this month
Comparison scoreboard
ICE LEADS 3/5AI Scorei
NDAQ ✓51.4
ICE 49.7
1Y Returni
NDAQ ✓+5.25%
ICE -9.15%
Fwd P/Ei
NDAQ 21.23
ICE ✓18.44
Target Up.i
NDAQ +10.56%
ICE ✓+14.19%
Op. Margini
NDAQ 49.33%
ICE ✓52.63%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/20/2026
Quick take
NDAQ vs ICE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NDAQ and ICE are both financial market infrastructure companies with exchange and data businesses, but with different primary revenue drivers. Nasdaq's strength is technology stock listings and its growing financial technology business (Adenza, Verafin). ICE's strength is energy futures (global Brent crude benchmark), NYSE equity prestige, and mortgage technology through Ellie Mae/ICE Mortgage Technology. Both are quality long-term compounders with recurring revenue characteristics.
NDAQ vs ICE — Nasdaq (the technology stock exchange with Apple/Microsoft listing dominance, anti-financial crime technology (Verafin), and Adenza regulatory technology creating recurring SaaS-like revenue alongside exchange operations) versus ICE (the energy futures and NYSE operator with Brent crude global benchmark pricing, mortgage technology through Ellie Mae, and fixed income data services at scale).
Live analysis · updated 9/20/2026
ICE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NDAQ has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+5.25% vs -9.15%), though ICE has the better forward P/E setup (18.44x vs 21.23x for NDAQ). On fundamentals, NDAQ is growing revenue faster (14.90%), while ICE maintains the higher operating margin (52.63%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ICE (+14.19%) than for NDAQ (+10.56%).
Normalized 1Y performance
NDAQ
ICE
Recent returns
NDAQ
ICE
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
NDAQ
Price target range
analyst mean$109.80
current price$93.54
+10.6% upside to analyst mean
ICE
Price target range
analyst mean$185.36
current price$155.47
+14.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
NDAQ may suit investors who:
- see Nasdaq's financial technology transformation (Adenza, Verafin) as creating a higher-multiple SaaS revenue stream that gradually reduces dependence on cyclical exchange trading volume
- value technology stock listing dominance — virtually every major tech IPO lists on Nasdaq, creating a self-reinforcing technology company ecosystem
- believe regulatory compliance technology (Adenza) serves a growing need as financial regulations proliferate globally — a secular growth driver for Nasdaq's financial technology business
- are comfortable with Adenza acquisition debt, equity trading volume cyclicality, and NYSE/ICE competition for large-cap equity listings
ICE may suit investors who:
- see Brent crude futures market global pricing benchmark as irreplaceable financial infrastructure — energy price discovery cannot easily migrate from ICE's established contract
- value NYSE's blue-chip company listing prestige as creating durable listing brand that traditional companies and foreign ADR issuers choose for US market access
- see mortgage technology as a secular growth opportunity — US mortgage originations flow through ICE Mortgage Technology (Ellie Mae), providing volume-driven recurring revenue from the largest consumer debt market
- are comfortable with energy price volatility affecting futures trading volumes, mortgage interest rate sensitivity reducing origination activity, and clearinghouse regulatory risk
Performance & AI score
| Metric | NDAQ | ICE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.4 | 49.7 |
| AI ranki | #457 | #558 |
| Latest closei | $93.54 | $155.47 |
| 1M returni | -2.92% | -1.13% |
| 6M returni | +8.43% | -1.91% |
| 1Y returni | +5.25% | -9.15% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NDAQ | ICE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.53K (+5.3%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.08K (-9.2%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $16.25K (+62.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $14.64K (+46.4%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $53.59K (+435.9%) started 2016-09-19 | $34.46K (+244.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | NDAQ | ICE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $55.51B | $91.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 28.95 | 22.90 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.23 | 18.44 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 11.45 | 10.48 |
| Analyst targeti | $109.80 | $185.36 |
| Target upsidei | +10.56% | +14.19% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | NDAQ | ICE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.90% | 4.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 14.10% | 14.20% |
| EPS growthi | +14.10% | +14.20% |
| FCF margini | +30.13% | +34.42% |
| Operating margini | 49.33% | 52.63% |
| Profit margini | 35.04% | 38.25% |
| ROIC proxyi | 16.52% | 14.09% |
| Return on equityi | 16.52% | 14.09% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.17% | 1.28% |
| Payout ratioi | 32.65% | 28.21% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| Debt/equityi | 77.69 | 69.23 |
| Current ratioi | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.39 | 0.02 |
Correlation
Over the past year, NDAQ and ICE have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.62), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.62
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.61
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.68
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
NDAQ max drawdowni23.90%
ICE max drawdowni29.81%
NDAQ max wkly dropi12.82%
ICE max wkly dropi10.97%
5Y risk snapshot
NDAQ max drawdowni32.84%
ICE max drawdowni34.78%
NDAQ max wkly dropi12.82%
ICE max wkly dropi15.73%
10Y risk snapshot
NDAQ max drawdowni38.31%
ICE max drawdowni34.78%
NDAQ max wkly dropi21.95%
ICE max wkly dropi22.78%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | NDAQ | ICE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +5.25% | -9.15% |
| CAGRi | +5.26% | -9.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.67% | 25.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.16 | -0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.22 | -0.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.90% | 29.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.37% | 11.21% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.34% | 10.41% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.38% | 12.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.40% | 7.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.82% | 10.97% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +54.43% | +39.50% |
| CAGRi | +9.09% | +6.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.81% | 21.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.30 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | 0.29 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.84% | 34.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.37% | 17.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.19% | 12.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.02% | 16.02% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.81% | 7.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.82% | 15.73% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +361.73% | +207.12% |
| CAGRi | +16.54% | +11.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.68% | 22.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.80 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.31% | 34.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.37% | 17.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.16% | 8.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.46% | 11.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.81% | 12.29% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.95% | 22.78% |
Business comparison
| Category | NDAQ | ICE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Nasdaq, Inc. | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | Nasdaq operates the Nasdaq Stock Market (home to Apple, Microsoft, and most tech giants), global equity exchanges, fixed income trading, derivatives (Nasdaq Nordic, Nasdaq Commodities), and a significant financial technology business. Nasdaq acquired Adenza (regulatory technology, formerly AxiomSL and Calypso) for $10.5B in 2023 to expand its financial technology services. Nasdaq's SaaS-like financial technology segment (anti-financial crime technology, regulatory reporting, marketplace technology) now generates a growing recurring revenue stream alongside the exchange business. | ICE operates a global network of exchanges, clearinghouses, and data services including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), ICE Futures (oil, natural gas, emissions), Liffe (European derivatives), ICE Clear (clearing), and extensive fixed income data and analytics (ICE Data Services). ICE acquired Ellie Mae (mortgage technology) and launched Black Knight acquisition (mortgage data analytics, partially merged into ICE Mortgage Technology after regulatory proceedings). ICE's energy futures markets (Brent crude, natural gas) are the global benchmarks for energy commodity pricing. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Nasdaq's recurring revenue mix from financial technology (Adenza integration), equity listing fees and market data revenue, derivatives trading volume, and margin expansion as the business mix shifts toward higher-margin SaaS. | Investors focus on ICE's energy futures trading volume, NYSE equity franchise performance, mortgage technology expansion through ICE Mortgage Technology (formerly Ellie Mae), and fixed income data services growth. |
NDAQ strengths
- Technology stock listing dominance: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and virtually every major tech company is listed on Nasdaq — the technology exchange brand creates a self-reinforcing listing desirability among tech IPOs
- Financial technology revenue diversification: Nasdaq's anti-financial crime (Verafin) and regulatory technology (Adenza) create recurring SaaS-like revenue streams that reduce dependence on trading volume fluctuations
- Adenza regulatory technology cross-sell to financial institutions: Adenza's compliance and risk management software serves the same bank and broker clients using Nasdaq's market infrastructure — enabling cross-sell within existing relationships
ICE strengths
- Brent crude and energy futures global benchmarks: ICE's Brent crude oil contract is the world's most used oil price benchmark — the contract's global standard status creates irreplaceable pricing infrastructure with high switching costs
- NYSE brand and listed company prestige: NYSE remains the world's most prestigious stock exchange with major financial institutions, traditional blue chip companies, and non-US companies choosing NYSE for US listings prestige
- Mortgage technology ecosystem: ICE's mortgage technology platform handles a significant portion of US mortgage origination workflow — providing durable recurring revenue from the largest consumer debt market in the US
Risks to watch — NDAQ
- Adenza acquisition debt: the $10.5B Adenza acquisition added significant debt — deleveraging is a priority before major additional capital deployment
- Equity trading revenue tied to market volatility: Nasdaq's equity exchange revenue fluctuates with trading volumes — low-volatility market environments reduce trading activity and exchange revenue
- Competition from NYSE and CBOE in US equities: NYSE (ICE) remains the largest US equity exchange by many measures — Nasdaq competes for IPO listings and trading volume in the large-cap equity market
Risks to watch — ICE
- Energy futures volume sensitivity to oil market volatility: ICE's futures revenue tracks energy market activity — periods of low oil price volatility reduce hedging activity and futures trading volumes
- Mortgage market interest rate sensitivity: ICE's mortgage technology revenue tracks US mortgage origination volume — rising interest rates reduce refinancing activity and origination volumes that drive mortgage technology revenue
- Regulatory risk for clearing and settlement: ICE's clearinghouse operations (ICE Clear) are critical market infrastructure subject to strict regulation — regulatory changes could impose capital requirements or operational restrictions on clearinghouse operations
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