NDAQ vs SPGI: Nasdaq vs S&P Global Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Nasdaq is an exchange and technology company with index licensing and financial crime software, while S&P Global is a financial data and analytics company with credit ratings, the S&P 500 index franchise, and Platts commodity data. Both have extraordinary index licensing businesses (Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500); S&P Global has the larger and more essential index franchise and credit ratings.
NDAQ vs SPGI is technology-heavy exchange and financial crime software versus credit ratings monopoly and S&P 500 index licensing — Nasdaq wins if SaaS financial technology and Nasdaq-100 ETF AUM grow; S&P Global wins if debt issuance volumes recover and S&P 500 index licensing compounds with equity market appreciation.
NDAQ holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NDAQ leads on both 1-year return (+4.85%) and forward P/E quality (21.23x vs 21.88x for SPGI), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NDAQ leads on both revenue growth (14.90%) and operating margin (49.33%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPGI (+17.25%) than for NDAQ (+10.56%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want exchange + financial technology exposure through Adenza crime detection and Calypso software
- value Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) index licensing as a permanent royalty on technology equity appreciation
- believe financial crime compliance software has growing recurring revenue as banks face more regulatory requirements
- prefer a more technology-oriented capital markets company vs S&P Global's ratings and data model
- prefer the S&P 500 index franchise — the most valuable index in the world by AUM managed against it
- value credit ratings as an oligopoly business required for virtually all public debt issuance
- want Platts commodity data as a diversifier into energy and raw materials market intelligence
- prefer a broader financial data and analytics platform following the IHS Markit merger
| Metric | NDAQ | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.6 | 50.3 |
| AI ranki | #389 | #489 |
| Latest closei | $93.97 | $429.64 |
| 1M returni | +5.87% | +5.62% |
| 3M returni | +2.54% | -4.70% |
| 6M returni | +6.05% | -2.92% |
| 1Y returni | +4.85% | -11.03% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NDAQ | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.69K (+6.9%) started 2025-10-16 | $9.1K (-9.0%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $15.32K (+53.2%) started 2021-10-18 | $10.19K (+1.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $56.61K (+466.1%) started 2016-10-17 | $41.17K (+311.7%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NDAQ | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $55.51B | $130.56B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 28.95 | 26.96 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.23 | 21.88 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 10.99 |
| EV/Revenuei | 11.45 | 9.14 |
| Analyst targeti | $109.80 | $519.30 |
| Target upsidei | +10.56% | +17.25% |
| Metric | NDAQ | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.90% | 10.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 14.10% | 17.70% |
| EPS growthi | +14.10% | +17.70% |
| FCF margini | +30.13% | +33.79% |
| Operating margini | 49.33% | 44.79% |
| Profit margini | 35.04% | 30.54% |
| ROIC proxyi | 16.52% | 14.26% |
| Return on equityi | 16.52% | 14.26% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.17% | 0.88% |
| Payout ratioi | 32.65% | 23.49% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| Debt/equityi | 77.69 | 42.98 |
| Current ratioi | 1.01 | 0.95 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.39 | 0.83 |
Over the past year, NDAQ and SPGI have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.67), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NDAQ | SPGI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +6.86% | -8.98% |
| CAGRi | +6.87% | -9.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.53% | 31.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | -0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.29 | -0.37 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.90% | 29.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.94% | 21.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.65% | 16.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.55% | 19.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.40% | 11.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.82% | 16.77% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +45.61% | -1.16% |
| CAGRi | +7.81% | -0.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.76% | 25.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | -0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.34 | -0.08 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.84% | 39.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.94% | 23.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.30% | 15.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.05% | 18.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.81% | 11.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.82% | 16.77% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +387.75% | +279.38% |
| CAGRi | +17.18% | +14.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.69% | 26.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.83 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.31% | 39.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.94% | 23.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.09% | 9.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.43% | 13.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.81% | 15.19% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.95% | 20.46% |
| Category | NDAQ | SPGI |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Nasdaq, Inc. | S&P Global Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges |
| Core business | Global exchange and capital markets technology company with US equity exchange operations, financial technology products (Calypso, Verafin), market data and index licensing, and ESG analytics. Nasdaq's Adenza acquisition expanded its financial crime detection and capital markets software. | Financial data and analytics company with credit ratings (S&P Ratings), market intelligence, Platts energy data, and indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones). S&P Global merged with IHS Markit in 2022 to become a broader data and analytics company. |
| Investor focus | SaaS software revenue growth from Adenza/Calypso/Verafin, index licensing revenue from Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) AUM growth, market data subscriptions, and exchange transaction revenue. | Credit ratings debt issuance volumes, Platts commodity pricing data, market intelligence subscription growth, and S&P 500 index licensing revenue. |
- Nasdaq-100 index licensing (QQQ ETF) creates permanent recurring revenue that grows with equity market appreciation — one of the most durable royalty income streams in finance
- Adenza financial crime detection software is deeply embedded in bank compliance workflows — very high switching costs
- Technology and data segments now provide more than 70% of Nasdaq's revenue, reducing dependence on cyclical trading volumes
- S&P Ratings is one of three global credit rating agencies — required for virtually all public debt issuance globally, creating an oligopoly revenue stream
- S&P 500 index licensing is the most valuable index franchise in the world — ETF and fund managers pay licensing fees on trillions in AUM
- Platts energy data provides critical pricing benchmarks for oil, gas, and commodities markets globally
- Adenza acquisition significantly increased Nasdaq's debt — deleveraging is a near-term constraint on capital allocation
- Competition from Bloomberg, Refinitiv (LSEG), and ICE in financial data and analytics
- Exchange transaction revenue is cyclical — trading volumes fall in low-volatility market environments
- Credit rating revenue is cyclical — debt issuance volumes fall when interest rates are high and companies defer refinancing
- IHS Markit integration complexity added cost and execution risk following the 2022 merger
- Competition from Moody's, Fitch, and ICE in various data segments
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