MS vs GS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the two elite capital markets firms but have pursued meaningfully different strategies in recent years. Morgan Stanley has deliberately built wealth management into a durable earnings engine, while Goldman Sachs remains more purely exposed to trading and investment banking cycles. MS offers more earnings stability; GS offers more cyclical upside in bull markets for M&A and capital markets activity.
The core choice is between Morgan Stanley's more stable, wealth-management-weighted business model versus Goldman Sachs's higher-beta exposure to capital markets cycles — investors who believe M&A activity is recovering favor GS; those who want smoother earnings compounding favor MS.
GS holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MS has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+27.22% vs +17.12%), though GS has the better forward P/E setup (13.97x vs 15.75x for MS). GS leads on both revenue growth (42.50%) and operating margin (42.18%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +10.17% for MS and +10.41% for GS.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer financial services with significant wealth management recurring revenue reducing earnings cyclicality
- value the integrated firm model combining institutional and retail client relationships
- want dividend growth and buyback capacity supported by stable fee-based income
- are comfortable with equity market sensitivity as wealth AUM affects fee revenue
- want maximum exposure to a recovering M&A and capital markets cycle
- believe Goldman's franchise position in advisory and trading generates superior market-share revenue
- are willing to accept higher earnings cyclicality for potentially higher peak earnings
- value the strategic clarity of returning to Goldman's institutional core competencies
| Metric | MS | GS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 65.2 | 66.0 |
| AI ranki | #79 | #71 |
| Latest closei | $202.58 | $942.00 |
| 1M returni | -5.44% | -7.80% |
| 6M returni | +27.77% | +16.37% |
| 1Y returni | +27.22% | +17.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MS | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.72K (+27.2%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.71K (+17.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $26.82K (+168.2%) started 2021-09-20 | $30.03K (+200.3%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $109.51K (+995.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $82.06K (+720.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MS | GS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $337.31B | $301.07B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.36 | 16.08 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.75 | 13.97 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.31 | 3.55 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.78 | 1.00 |
| Analyst targeti | $236.62 | $1,141.65 |
| Target upsidei | +10.17% | +10.41% |
| Metric | MS | GS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 28.00% | 42.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 62.40% | 92.30% |
| EPS growthi | +62.40% | +92.30% |
| FCF margini | N/A | N/A |
| Operating margini | 41.57% | 42.18% |
| Profit margini | 25.90% | 31.04% |
| ROIC proxyi | 17.97% | 16.90% |
| Return on equityi | 17.97% | 16.90% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.14% | 1.92% |
| Payout ratioi | 32.31% | 26.25% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| Debt/equityi | 517.28 | 725.38 |
| Current ratioi | 2.00 | 1.56 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.60 | 1.41 |
Over the past year, MS and GS have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.85), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MS | GS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +27.22% | +17.12% |
| CAGRi | +27.24% | +17.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.18% | 31.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.84 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.21 | 0.75 | |
| Max drawdowni | 19.28% | 19.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.36% | 18.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.66% | 5.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.63% | 7.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.19% | 7.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.42% | 10.69% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +133.88% | +172.96% |
| CAGRi | +18.54% | +22.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.91% | 28.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.84 | 1.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.38% | 32.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.36% | 18.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.62% | 10.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.58% | 13.54% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.51% | 9.21% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.51% | 15.72% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +724.80% | +576.51% |
| CAGRi | +23.50% | +21.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.41% | 30.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.69 | 0.64 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.02 | 0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.33% | 48.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.36% | 18.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.01% | 12.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.59% | 15.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.60% | 12.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.49% | 24.20% |
| Category | MS | GS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Morgan Stanley | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Capital Markets | Capital Markets |
| Core business | Morgan Stanley has deliberately transformed its business mix over the past decade, growing wealth management (through acquisitions of E*Trade and Eaton Vance) to the point where it now generates over 40% of revenue. The Integrated Firm model — offering investment banking, trading, and wealth management to the same clients — is the core competitive advantage. Fee-based recurring revenue from wealth and investment management provides earnings stability that pure-play investment banks cannot match. | Goldman Sachs is the premier global investment bank and markets trading firm, consistently ranked #1 in M&A advisory and equity underwriting globally. Its business segments include Global Banking & Markets (investment banking and trading), Asset & Wealth Management (institutional asset management and private wealth), and Platform Solutions (consumer financial products). Goldman is refocusing on its core institutional strengths after retreating from consumer banking (Marcus) which generated significant losses. |
| Investor focus | Investors track wealth management net new assets, fee-based asset management revenue growth, the progression of institutional equities trading market share, and the return on equity trajectory as the revenue mix shifts further toward fee-based businesses. | Investors track investment banking and trading revenue cyclicality, the M&A advisory backlog as a leading indicator, Asset & Wealth Management fee revenue growth, and ROE recovery from the Marcus write-downs. |
- Wealth management segment generates over $7B in pre-tax profit providing earnings floor stability
- E*Trade integration brought 8M+ retail brokerage accounts deepening the wealth funnel
- Consistently higher ROE than most peers due to the fee-based business mix
- Unrivaled franchise in M&A advisory and equity capital markets globally
- Fixed income and equities trading generate outsized market share revenue in volatile markets
- Strategic exit from consumer banking reduces loss-making drag and refocuses capital allocation
- Wealth management revenue sensitive to equity market levels and financial advisor attrition
- Investment banking cycle recovery timing affecting capital markets revenue
- Integration execution risk from multiple large acquisitions
- Heavy dependence on capital markets activity (M&A, IPO volume) creates cyclical earnings volatility
- Marcus consumer banking exit involved multi-billion dollar write-downs and reputational costs
- Less fee-based recurring revenue than Morgan Stanley means less earnings stability
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