PGR vs TRV Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Progressive and Travelers are both high-quality P&C insurers but serve different market segments. Progressive is a personal lines specialist — primarily auto insurance — known for market-share-driven growth and industry-leading data analytics. Travelers is a diversified commercial and personal P&C insurer with additional investment income dynamics. Progressive grows faster; Travelers is more balanced and dividend-focused.
Progressive is the better choice for investors who want exposure to a disciplined personal auto insurer gaining market share through superior underwriting technology; Travelers suits those who prefer a diversified commercial P&C insurer with investment income and consistent dividends.
TRV holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TRV leads on both 1-year return (+35.24%) and forward P/E quality (12.24x vs 13.42x for PGR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, PGR is growing revenue faster (7.30%), while TRV maintains the higher operating margin (23.70%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PGR (+6.11%) than for TRV (-2.59%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want a high-growth personal auto insurer that gains market share through superior risk pricing
- value telematics-driven underwriting as a durable, technology-based competitive advantage
- prefer rapid premium growth compounding over current dividend income
- are comfortable with auto insurance cycle exposure in exchange for best-in-class execution
- prefer diversified commercial and personal P&C insurance with consistent dividend income
- value net investment income as an additional return driver beyond underwriting profit
- want broader diversification across commercial, personal, and specialty insurance lines
- are comfortable with catastrophe loss volatility in exchange for a value-oriented compounder
| Metric | PGR | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.2 | 50.1 |
| AI ranki | #169 | #541 |
| Latest closei | $213.48 | $374.62 |
| 1M returni | -2.65% | +3.04% |
| 6M returni | +3.63% | +26.30% |
| 1Y returni | -11.91% | +35.24% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PGR | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.85K (-11.5%) started 2025-09-22 | $13.57K (+35.7%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $25.56K (+155.6%) started 2021-09-22 | $28.08K (+180.8%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $106.92K (+969.2%) started 2016-09-22 | $47.84K (+378.4%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PGR | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $127.05B | $77.15B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.96 | 9.94 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.42 | 12.24 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.32 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.47 | 1.66 |
| Analyst targeti | $232.00 | $360.33 |
| Target upsidei | +6.11% | -2.59% |
| Metric | PGR | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.30% | 0.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 5.00% | 57.10% |
| EPS growthi | +5.00% | +57.10% |
| FCF margini | +16.61% | +30.17% |
| Operating margini | 18.21% | 23.70% |
| Profit margini | 12.85% | 16.95% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.94% | 26.51% |
| Return on equityi | 34.94% | 26.51% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.18% | 1.35% |
| Payout ratioi | 69.74% | 12.23% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| Debt/equityi | 24.43 | 27.38 |
| Current ratioi | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.23 | 0.19 |
Over the past year, PGR and TRV have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.55), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PGR | TRV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -11.47% | +35.68% |
| CAGRi | -11.53% | +35.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.31% | 20.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.48 | 1.37 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.62 | 2.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.90% | 8.81% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.55% | 5.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.46% | 3.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.48% | 4.18% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.43% | 3.35% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.88% | 5.72% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +143.35% | +160.70% |
| CAGRi | +19.48% | +21.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.64% | 22.28% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 0.77 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.92 | 1.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.60% | 18.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.67% | 5.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.05% | 5.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.47% | 7.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.12% | 7.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.83% | 11.58% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +745.82% | +288.08% |
| CAGRi | +23.81% | +14.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.04% | 24.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.80 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.15 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.60% | 46.28% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.67% | 5.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.12% | 7.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.84% | 10.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.12% | 20.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.56% | 27.45% |
| Category | PGR | TRV |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Progressive Corporation | The Travelers Companies, Inc. |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Insurance - Property & Casualty |
| Core business | Progressive is the third-largest US personal auto insurer and a fast-growing homeowners insurer, known for its data-driven underwriting using telematics (Snapshot) and sophisticated pricing models. Progressive grows by taking market share when competitors retreat (rate inadequacy cycles), pricing risk more accurately than peers, and maintaining disciplined combined ratio targets below 96. Its direct-to-consumer channel and agent channel allow broad distribution. | Travelers is one of the largest US property and casualty insurers, focused primarily on commercial lines (Business Insurance), personal auto and home (Personal Insurance), and specialty bonds (Bond & Specialty Insurance). Unlike Progressive's personal auto focus, Travelers has significant commercial P&C exposure — insuring businesses, workers' compensation, and specialty risks. Its investment portfolio generates meaningful income that contributes to total returns. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Progressive's combined ratio (its profitability metric), policies-in-force growth, auto premium rate increases versus loss cost trends, and the homeowners segment's combined ratio as it scales. | Investors track the combined ratio across segments (especially commercial lines pricing power), catastrophe losses versus reserves, the net investment income yield as rates affect bond portfolio returns, and capital return via dividends and buybacks. |
- Industry-leading telematics underwriting via Snapshot gives superior risk pricing over competitors
- Disciplined pricing philosophy — raises rates aggressively when needed and takes market share when competitors under-price
- Consistent ability to achieve sub-96 combined ratios even in difficult weather environments
- Commercial lines franchise provides pricing power in hard market cycles across diverse business risks
- Net investment income benefits from higher reinvestment rates in a rising rate environment
- Consistent shareholder returns via dividends (consecutive increases) and buybacks
- Auto insurance loss cost inflation (vehicle repair costs, medical costs) can spike combined ratio
- Homeowners segment is growing rapidly but carries meaningful catastrophe exposure
- Market share gains may slow as competitors improve their own pricing sophistication
- Catastrophe losses (hurricanes, wildfires, severe convective storms) can cause significant combined ratio spikes
- Commercial lines pricing cycle — competition picks up in soft markets reducing margins
- Personal auto segment has faced significant loss cost pressure requiring major rate increases
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