TRV vs ALL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Travelers and Allstate are both major P&C insurers but with different lines of business. Travelers focuses on commercial insurance with disciplined underwriting; Allstate focuses on personal auto and homeowners insurance. Travelers' commercial focus creates more stable underwriting due to less individual weather-event catastrophe exposure in commercial lines. Allstate is recovering from personal auto profitability issues after years of loss-ratio deterioration from inflation-driven auto claim costs.
TRV vs ALL is the disciplined commercial P&C insurer with consistent below-peer combined ratios and DJIA prestige (Travelers) versus the second-largest US personal auto insurer recovering profitability through significant rate increases after inflation-driven losses and managing homeowners catastrophe exposure (Allstate) — commercial line underwriting discipline vs personal lines recovery from inflation-driven loss ratios.
ALL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TRV has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+35.24% vs +21.25%), though ALL has the better forward P/E setup (9.05x vs 12.24x for TRV). On fundamentals, ALL is growing revenue faster (11.80%), while TRV maintains the higher operating margin (23.70%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ALL (+9.98%) than for TRV (-2.59%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the disciplined commercial P&C insurer with consistent below-100 combined ratios through catastrophe years — Travelers' underwriting culture is one of the most respected in insurance
- value Travelers' comprehensive commercial insurance portfolio spanning workers' comp, commercial auto, surety bonds, and cyber for a full spectrum corporate client service
- want P&C insurance exposure with more stable earnings from commercial lines vs personal auto's inflation-driven volatility
- are comfortable with catastrophe event earnings volatility, workers' comp market pricing cycles, and investment income rate sensitivity from fixed income portfolio yields
- prefer the personal auto insurance recovery story as Allstate's rate increases restore profitability after inflation-driven losses — buying the recovery at potentially discounted valuation
- value Allstate's personal auto and homeowners market leadership with 16,000+ agent distribution network creating consumer insurance reach
- want personal insurance recovery exposure as Allstate's combined ratio improves dramatically from 2022's loss-making levels toward historical profitability
- are comfortable with homeowners climate catastrophe risk in California and Florida creating ongoing geographic coverage decisions, Progressive/Geico direct competition, and continued personal auto claims inflation sensitivity
| Metric | TRV | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.1 | 54.4 |
| AI ranki | #541 | #297 |
| Latest closei | $374.62 | $249.83 |
| 1M returni | +3.04% | -1.58% |
| 6M returni | +26.30% | +21.50% |
| 1Y returni | +35.24% | +21.25% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TRV | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.57K (+35.7%) started 2025-09-22 | $12.1K (+21.0%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $28.08K (+180.8%) started 2021-09-22 | $22.99K (+129.9%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $47.84K (+378.4%) started 2016-09-22 | $54.04K (+440.4%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TRV | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $77.15B | $63.17B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 9.94 | 5.00 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.24 | 9.05 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.32 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.66 | 0.95 |
| Analyst targeti | $360.33 | $274.77 |
| Target upsidei | -2.59% | +9.98% |
| Metric | TRV | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 0.30% | 11.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 57.10% | 61.20% |
| EPS growthi | +57.10% | +61.20% |
| FCF margini | +30.17% | +21.61% |
| Operating margini | 23.70% | 22.83% |
| Profit margini | 16.95% | 18.97% |
| ROIC proxyi | 26.51% | 46.11% |
| Return on equityi | 26.51% | 46.11% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.35% | 1.73% |
| Payout ratioi | 12.23% | 8.33% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.46 | 0.15 |
| Debt/equityi | 27.38 | 22.26 |
| Current ratioi | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.19 | 0.24 |
Over the past year, TRV and ALL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.67), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TRV | ALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +35.68% | +21.01% |
| CAGRi | +35.89% | +21.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.73% | 24.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.37 | 0.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.25 | 1.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | 8.81% | 11.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.69% | 9.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.29% | 3.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.18% | 4.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.35% | 5.28% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.72% | 9.39% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +160.70% | +109.57% |
| CAGRi | +21.14% | +15.96% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.28% | 25.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.14 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.90% | 27.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.69% | 9.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.36% | 7.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.00% | 9.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.92% | 12.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.58% | 12.82% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +288.08% | +338.58% |
| CAGRi | +14.53% | +15.94% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.69% | 25.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.54 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 46.28% | 41.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.69% | 9.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.34% | 7.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.38% | 10.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.80% | 14.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.45% | 22.74% |
| Category | TRV | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | The Allstate Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Insurance - Property & Casualty |
| Core business | Travelers is the second-largest US property and casualty insurer and the only P&C insurer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Travelers operates three segments: Business Insurance (commercial lines: workers' comp, commercial auto, general liability, commercial property), Bond & Specialty Insurance (surety bonds, cyber, professional liability), and Personal Insurance (homeowners and personal auto). Travelers is known for disciplined underwriting — consistently achieving combined ratios below 100 through catastrophe years by maintaining pricing discipline. | Allstate is the second-largest personal P&C insurer (after State Farm), primarily known for personal auto and homeowners insurance in the US. Allstate serves customers through its branded Allstate agents, National General (acquired independent agents channel), Esurance (direct-to-consumer), and Safe Auto (non-standard auto). Allstate executed significant personal auto rate increases in 2022-2024 to restore profitability after inflation drove auto repair and replacement costs dramatically higher — creating short-term revenue headwind but restoring underwriting margins. |
| Investor focus | Investors track combined ratio (loss ratio + expense ratio — below 100 = underwriting profit), net written premium growth, investment income, and capital return capacity. | Investors track auto insurance combined ratio recovery, personal auto premium growth as rate increases are implemented, homeowners profitability, and free cash flow recovery. |
- Disciplined underwriting culture: Travelers consistently achieves combined ratios below peers — maintaining pricing discipline even when competitors undercut on price
- Commercial insurance leadership: Travelers' Business Insurance segment is one of the most comprehensive commercial P&C insurers, serving the full spectrum of corporate insurance needs
- Dow Jones component creating index fund buying: Travelers' DJIA inclusion drives passive institutional ownership that supports valuation
- National agent network: Allstate's 16,000+ independent and exclusive agents provide distribution depth and customer relationship management competitive with State Farm
- Personal auto market recovery: after implementing significant rate increases, Allstate's auto insurance combined ratio is improving dramatically from 2022's loss-making levels toward profitability
- National General acquisition expanded Allstate's independent agent channel and non-standard auto market access
- Catastrophe exposure: severe hurricane seasons, wildfires, and convective storms create elevated loss ratios — CAT events are the primary earnings volatility source for P&C insurers
- Workers' compensation market softening: competitive dynamics in workers' comp can compress margins
- Investment income sensitivity: Travelers' $80B+ investment portfolio (primarily fixed income) generates significant investment income — rate changes affect portfolio yield
- Personal auto profitability is still recovering: higher repair costs, used car prices, and catastrophic claims created significant losses that rate increases are still working to fully offset
- Homeowners insurance is in crisis in climate-exposed states: California wildfire and Florida hurricane exposure have forced Allstate and peers to exit or restrict coverage in high-risk markets
- Direct-to-consumer personal auto competition from Progressive and Geico (both more efficient cost models) creates competitive pressure on Allstate's agent-based distribution economics
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