HIG vs ALL: Hartford Financial vs Allstate Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Hartford Financial has a more diversified insurance portfolio with commercial lines, group benefits, and personal insurance, while Allstate is primarily a personal lines auto and homeowners insurer that has executed a significant pricing correction after claims inflation. Hartford offers more diversified insurance income; Allstate offers more personal lines recovery upside.
HIG vs ALL is commercial-and-group-benefits diversified insurer versus personal auto and homeowners recovery play — Hartford wins if commercial lines discipline and group benefits compound consistently; Allstate wins if personal auto pricing improvements sustain improved combined ratios.
ALL holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ALL leads on both 1-year return (+19.55%) and forward P/E quality (8.20x vs 10.12x for HIG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. ALL leads on both revenue growth (11.80%) and operating margin (22.83%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ALL (+17.92%) than for HIG (+8.16%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer commercial insurance and group benefits as more stable revenue vs personal auto cycles
- value Hartford's underwriting discipline and consistent combined ratio history
- want a diversified insurance company with less personal auto catastrophe cycle exposure
- prefer steady dividend income from a disciplined, diversified insurer
- want exposure to a personal auto insurance recovery after large premium rate increases
- value Allstate's scale in personal auto with National General adding non-standard market access
- believe Allstate's pricing actions have adequately reset for current claims severity
- prefer personal lines insurance with near-term recovery potential from margin normalization
| Metric | HIG | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.2 | 54.0 |
| AI ranki | #372 | #302 |
| Latest closei | $132.81 | $239.60 |
| 1M returni | -2.37% | -6.85% |
| 3M returni | -2.81% | -0.93% |
| 6M returni | -3.96% | +12.03% |
| 1Y returni | +3.23% | +19.55% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HIG | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.71K (+7.1%) started 2025-10-16 | $12.29K (+22.9%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $21.52K (+115.2%) started 2021-10-18 | $22.8K (+128.0%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $45.66K (+356.6%) started 2016-10-17 | $51.53K (+415.3%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HIG | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $37.53B | $58.01B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 9.57 | 4.59 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.12 | 8.20 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.30 | 0.88 |
| Analyst targeti | $149.85 | $270.55 |
| Target upsidei | +8.16% | +17.92% |
| Metric | HIG | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 8.10% | 11.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 36.10% | 61.20% |
| EPS growthi | +36.10% | +61.20% |
| FCF margini | +18.79% | +21.61% |
| Operating margini | 17.61% | 22.83% |
| Profit margini | 14.89% | 18.97% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.06% | 46.11% |
| Return on equityi | 22.06% | 46.11% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.73% | 1.88% |
| Payout ratioi | 16.42% | 8.32% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.46 | 0.14 |
| Debt/equityi | 22.33 | 22.26 |
| Current ratioi | 1.77 | 0.36 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.00 | 0.24 |
Over the past year, HIG and ALL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.71), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HIG | ALL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +7.11% | +22.95% |
| CAGRi | +7.13% | +22.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.37% | 24.77% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.78 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.32 | 1.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.01% | 19.36% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.83% | 12.91% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.74% | 4.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.03% | 6.18% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.70% | 5.50% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.95% | 11.45% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +99.34% | +107.86% |
| CAGRi | +14.81% | +15.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.96% | 26.11% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.54 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.76 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.63% | 27.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.83% | 12.91% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.17% | 7.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.67% | 9.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.00% | 12.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.80% | 12.82% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +271.36% | +318.19% |
| CAGRi | +14.02% | +15.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.95% | 25.41% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.59% | 41.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.83% | 12.91% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.36% | 7.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.86% | 10.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.21% | 14.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 41.83% | 22.74% |
| Category | HIG | ALL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | The Allstate Corporation |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Insurance - Diversified | Insurance - Property & Casualty |
| Core business | Diversified insurance company with commercial lines (property-casualty for businesses), personal lines (auto, homeowners), group benefits (disability, life insurance for employers), and mutual fund services. Hartford's commercial lines business is its largest and most profitable segment. | One of the largest US personal lines insurance companies offering auto, homeowners, renters, and life insurance through Allstate agents, Esurance, and National General brands. Allstate recently divested its employer-based benefits business to focus on personal insurance. |
| Investor focus | Commercial lines combined ratio, group benefits profitability, underwriting discipline across catastrophe-exposed lines, and capital return through dividends and buybacks. | Personal auto loss ratio recovery after inflation-driven claims severity surge, homeowners pricing adequacy vs catastrophe exposure, and agent channel vs digital competitive balance. |
- Commercial insurance leadership in specialty segments (small business, specialty liability, marine) provides differentiated underwriting
- Group benefits (employee disability and life insurance) creates durable fee-like recurring revenue tied to employment levels
- Conservative underwriting culture has produced consistently solid combined ratios through multiple catastrophe cycles
- Allstate's scale in personal auto insurance provides pricing data breadth and agent distribution advantages
- Successful rate increases (50%+ in many states) have significantly improved auto loss ratios after 2021-2022 surge
- National General acquisition provides additional agency distribution across non-standard auto segments
- Catastrophe frequency from hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding creates earnings volatility in property lines
- Personal auto loss ratios faced challenges from claims severity inflation similar to peers
- Investment portfolio sensitivity to interest rates affects fixed income income from premium float
- Homeowners insurance catastrophe exposure in hurricane and wildfire states remains elevated — pricing adequacy is an ongoing challenge
- Personal auto competition from Progressive and GEICO limits pricing and market share
- Agent-distributed model faces structural cost disadvantages vs direct-to-consumer models like Progressive
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