OXY vs CVX: Occidental vs Chevron Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Occidental and Chevron are both major Permian Basin oil producers, but at very different scales and risk profiles. Chevron is a large integrated major with one of the strongest balance sheets in energy and a 37-year dividend growth record; OXY is a more leveraged, higher-beta oil producer with Buffett's endorsement, carbon capture optionality, and higher upside (and downside) tied to oil prices.
Use this OXY vs CVX comparison to choose between a high-quality integrated oil major and a leveraged Permian pure-play with iconic investor backing. Chevron is the safer, lower-beta choice with reliable dividends; OXY offers more oil price leverage and a unique carbon capture technology angle that Chevron lacks.
CVX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CVX leads on both 1-year return (+31.98%) and forward P/E quality (15.25x vs 15.41x for OXY), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CVX is growing revenue faster (53.50%), while OXY maintains the higher operating margin (45.44%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OXY (+13.07%) than for CVX (+8.14%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want higher oil price leverage through a Permian-focused producer with quality Buffett validation
- Value the carbon capture (DAC) optionality as a long-duration ESG and regulatory hedge
- Are comfortable with higher leverage and oil price sensitivity in exchange for more upside in bull markets
- Follow Berkshire Hathaway's conviction investments as a signal of long-term value
- Want a high-quality integrated oil major with one of the strongest balance sheets in energy
- Value 37+ consecutive years of dividend growth and consistent capital return as a core holding requirement
- Prefer lower oil price beta with global diversification across Permian, Tengiz, and Australia LNG
- Are patient for Hess acquisition resolution as a path to world-class Guyana oil exposure
| Metric | OXY | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 29.7 | 52.7 |
| AI ranki | #2303 | #360 |
| Latest closei | $60.04 | $208.60 |
| 1M returni | +11.58% | +11.90% |
| 6M returni | +12.77% | +9.85% |
| 1Y returni | +29.68% | +31.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | OXY | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.88K (+28.8%) started 2025-09-04 | $13.23K (+32.3%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $25.47K (+154.7%) started 2021-09-07 | $29.37K (+193.7%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $13.63K (+36.3%) started 2016-09-06 | $46.23K (+362.3%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | OXY | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $59.08B | $395.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.43 | 19.41 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.41 | 15.25 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.52 | 1.24 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.28 | 2.06 |
| Analyst targeti | $66.83 | $218.29 |
| Target upsidei | +13.07% | +8.14% |
| Metric | OXY | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 53.40% | 53.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 964.90% | 321.90% |
| EPS growthi | +964.90% | +321.90% |
| FCF margini | +15.83% | +10.48% |
| Operating margini | 45.44% | 21.87% |
| Profit margini | 30.32% | 9.83% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.63% | 12.23% |
| Return on equityi | 10.63% | 12.23% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.89% | 3.56% |
| Betai | 0.16 | 0.49 |
| Debt/equityi | 34.51 | 18.96 |
| Current ratioi | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.04 | 0.84 |
Over the past year, OXY and CVX have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.69), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | OXY | CVX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +28.81% | +32.28% |
| CAGRi | +28.86% | +32.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.24% | 23.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 1.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.14 | 1.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.63% | 21.53% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.36% | 1.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.77% | 6.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.54% | 8.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.31% | 4.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.01% | 7.53% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +144.03% | +149.88% |
| CAGRi | +19.57% | +20.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.32% | 25.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.54 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.82 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.77% | 24.95% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.15% | 1.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.72% | 10.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.03% | 11.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.01% | 8.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.59% | 18.74% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -0.99% | +195.44% |
| CAGRi | -0.10% | +11.45% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.96% | 29.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.16 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.23 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 88.39% | 55.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.15% | 1.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 32.23% | 10.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 39.49% | 13.54% | |
| Max daily dropi | 52.01% | 22.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 63.08% | 33.70% |
| Category | OXY | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Chevron Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | US-focused oil and gas producer with operations concentrated in the Permian Basin (US), Gulf of Mexico, and the Middle East (OxyChem). Acquired CrownRock in 2024 to deepen Permian scale. Developing Direct Air Capture (DAC) carbon removal technology through 1PointFive subsidiary. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds ~27% of shares. | Global integrated oil and gas company with Permian Basin, Gulf of Mexico, Kazakhstan (Tengiz), Australia LNG, and international upstream operations. Proposed acquisition of Hess Corporation (Guyana assets) has been subject to arbitration. Strong refining and chemicals downstream. |
| Investor focus | Permian Basin production growth, CrownRock acquisition debt reduction, OxyChem chemical business contribution, DAC carbon capture commercialisation, and Berkshire stake as a signal. | Permian Basin production growth, Hess acquisition (Guyana exposure), Tengiz expansion ramp, capital return program, and dividend reliability. |
- Warren Buffett's substantial ownership validates the OXY business model and management's capital allocation strategy
- Permian Basin acreage is among the highest-quality and lowest-cost oil production in North America
- DAC carbon capture via 1PointFive is a long-duration decarbonisation optionality play beyond oil and gas
- Among the strongest balance sheets in the energy sector — low debt-to-equity allows Chevron to sustain dividends and buybacks through oil price cycles
- 37+ consecutive years of dividend growth — a Dividend Aristocrat with a long track record of rewarding shareholders
- Guyana exposure (if Hess is acquired) represents one of the world's most exciting low-cost oil development regions
- CrownRock acquisition significantly increased debt — oil price declines would pressure deleveraging timeline
- Higher leverage than larger integrated oil majors means oil price downturns hit OXY harder
- DAC is speculative and capital-intensive — returns on carbon capture investment are long-dated and uncertain
- Hess acquisition arbitration creates uncertainty around gaining the prized Guyana asset exposure
- Tengiz oil field expansion in Kazakhstan has faced repeated delays and cost overruns
- Lower leverage means less upside in oil bull markets relative to more indebted peers like OXY
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