VALE vs PBR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
VALE (Vale) and PBR (Petrobras) are Brazil's two largest commodity exporters — Vale as the world's largest iron ore producer tied to Chinese steel demand, and Petrobras as a world-class deepwater oil company with high dividend yields and government ownership risk. Both offer commodity exposure and high yields at emerging market valuations.
VALE vs PBR is Chinese steel demand-driven iron ore mining (Vale) versus Brazilian deepwater oil production with government ownership dynamics (Petrobras) — two Brazilian commodity giants with extraordinary resource bases but different commodity exposures and political risk profiles.
PBR holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PBR leads on both 1-year return (+89.66%) and forward P/E quality (5.10x vs 5.80x for VALE), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. PBR leads on both revenue growth (42.30%) and operating margin (44.68%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VALE (+40.41%) than for PBR (+13.34%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want global iron ore market leadership with the world's highest-quality ore assets, nickel production for EV batteries, and Brazilian resource cost advantages
- Value Vale's capital return through dividends and buybacks supported by strong free cash flow from low-cost iron ore production
- Accept Chinese steel market exposure (the primary iron ore demand driver) as the key macro variable in exchange for high dividend yields at attractive valuations
- Want exposure to Brazil's world-class deepwater pre-salt oil fields — among the best new oil discoveries globally in terms of scale and reservoir quality
- Value Petrobras's extraordinary dividend capacity from low-cost oil production, providing one of the highest dividend yields available in global energy
- Can assess and accept Brazilian government ownership risk — political cycle risk is a key variable, but recent administrations have generally supported shareholder-friendly capital allocation
| Metric | VALE | PBR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.5 | 71.7 |
| AI ranki | #1011 | #626 |
| Latest closei | $11.34 | $21.16 |
| 1M returni | -17.59% | -2.26% |
| 3M returni | -20.00% | +14.27% |
| 6M returni | -26.37% | -0.28% |
| 1Y returni | +1.58% | +89.66% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VALE | PBR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.92K (+9.2%) started 2025-11-03 | $19.51K (+95.1%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $23.66K (+136.6%) started 2021-11-03 | $436.37K (+4263.7%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $100.18K (+901.8%) started 2016-11-03 | $672.18K (+6621.8%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VALE | PBR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $46.73B | $135.85B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 68.63 | 5.32 |
| Forward P/Ei | 5.80 | 5.10 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| Analyst targeti | $15.42 | $23.89 |
| Target upsidei | +40.41% | +13.34% |
| Metric | VALE | PBR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -3.90% | 42.30% |
| Earnings growthi | -55.90% | 96.80% |
| EPS growthi | -55.90% | +96.80% |
| FCF margini | +4.00% | +17.18% |
| Operating margini | 19.31% | 44.68% |
| Profit margini | 1.01% | 24.32% |
| ROIC proxyi | 0.26% | 30.27% |
| Return on equityi | 0.26% | 30.27% |
| Dividend yieldi | 7.44% | 6.76% |
| Payout ratioi | 526.96% | 28.93% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 1 yr | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.73 | -0.23 |
| Debt/equityi | 55.05 | 76.07 |
| Current ratioi | 1.10 | 0.85 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.62 | 0.54 |
Over the past year, VALE and PBR have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VALE | PBR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +0.66% | +86.78% |
| CAGRi | +0.66% | +87.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.52% | 38.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.05 | 1.73 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.07 | 2.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.47% | 26.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.55% | 19.11% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.49% | 8.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.51% | 10.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.27% | 13.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.86% | 15.71% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +42.56% | +568.02% |
| CAGRi | +7.35% | +46.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.89% | 37.70% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 1.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 1.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 49.81% | 35.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.55% | 19.11% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.27% | 10.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.48% | 13.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.21% | 13.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.22% | 20.75% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +250.46% | +603.24% |
| CAGRi | +13.37% | +21.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.11% | 46.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.59 | 0.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.60% | 75.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 34.55% | 19.11% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.66% | 18.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.31% | 24.55% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.01% | 30.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.25% | 53.58% |
| Category | VALE | PBR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Vale S.A. | Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) |
| Sector | Materials - Iron Ore & Base Metals | Energy - Oil & Gas E&P and Refining |
| Industry | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | Vale is the world's largest iron ore producer and a major global nickel producer — mining iron ore in Brazil's Pará and Minas Gerais states for export to Chinese steelmakers, plus copper, cobalt, and other base metals through its international operations. | Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled oil company and the largest company in Latin America by revenue — primarily extracting deepwater pre-salt oil from offshore Brazil, operating refineries, and distributing fuel domestically, with the Brazilian federal government as majority shareholder. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Vale's iron ore production volume and price realization, Chinese steel demand and mill utilization as the primary iron ore demand driver, production cost (C1 cost per ton), capex efficiency, and the aftermath of the Brumadinho dam disaster legacy liabilities. | Investors track Petrobras's oil production and reserve additions, free cash flow generation from world-class ultra-deepwater pre-salt fields, dividend policy (a key attraction for income investors), and the political risk from government ownership influencing fuel pricing and capital allocation. |
- World's largest iron ore producer with low-cost, high-quality iron ore assets in Brazil — Carajás mine produces the world's highest-grade iron ore at competitive cost
- Nickel production for EV battery manufacturing positions Vale as a beneficiary of the energy transition's demand for battery metals beyond fossil fuel commodity exposure
- Brazilian resources sector enjoys natural cost advantages — large, high-grade deposits and proximity to port infrastructure for export to Asian steel mills
- World-class pre-salt offshore oil reservoirs in the Santos Basin (Tupi, Búzios) are among the highest-quality large oil fields discovered globally in decades — high oil recovery rates and relatively low operating costs
- Government-controlled status creates unique political access but also ensures regulatory support for operations in Brazil's most strategically important industry
- High free cash flow generation from low-cost pre-salt oil enables extraordinary dividend payouts — Petrobras has been one of the highest dividend-yielding oil companies globally
- Iron ore price is driven overwhelmingly by Chinese steel production — Chinese property market slowdown and steel demand weakness significantly impact Vale's revenue
- Brumadinho dam collapse (2019) created massive ongoing legal liabilities and reputational damage — dam safety compliance has increased costs across Vale's mining operations
- Nickel price has been volatile due to Indonesian nickel production supply growth, which has weighed on prices from the high levels seen during the EV battery investment surge
- Government ownership means fuel pricing and capital allocation can be influenced by political considerations — past governments mandated below-market fuel prices, destroying shareholder value
- Brazilian political cycle affects Petrobras directly — election of left-leaning governments has historically led investors to fear price controls and capital allocation away from shareholder returns
- Pre-salt reservoir production requires massive ongoing investment to sustain production levels from high-decline deepwater wells
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