Data as of:
LIVE
BCC
Boise Cascade Company · Materials - Wood Products & Distribution
$75.30
-9.15% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
WFG
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. · Materials - Lumber & Engineered Wood
$71.50
+0.59% this month
Comparison scoreboard
BCC LEADS 4/5AI Scorei
BCC ✓40.4
WFG 38.2
1Y Returni
BCC -6.54%
WFG ✓-1.28%
Fwd P/Ei
BCC ✓14.27
WFG 27.45
Target Up.i
BCC ✓+27.92%
WFG +26.81%
Op. Margini
BCC ✓4.58%
WFG -5.58%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/18/2026
Quick take
BCC vs WFG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
BCC (Boise Cascade) and WFG (West Fraser Timber) are both wood products companies tied to residential construction — Boise with a differentiated engineered wood products business plus a distribution segment providing stability, versus West Fraser as a large-scale dimensional lumber and panels commodity producer with higher pricing volatility.
BCC vs WFG is specialty engineered wood products with distribution stability versus large-scale commodity lumber production — both tied to housing cycles but with different product mix and margin characteristics.
Live analysis · updated 9/18/2026
BCC holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WFG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-1.28% vs -6.54%), though BCC has the better forward P/E setup (14.27x vs 27.45x for WFG). BCC leads on both revenue growth (5.20%) and operating margin (4.58%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +27.92% for BCC and +26.81% for WFG.
Normalized 1Y performance
BCC
WFG
Recent returns
BCC
WFG
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
BCC
Price target range
analyst mean$96.50
current price$75.30
+27.9% upside to analyst mean
WFG
Price target range
analyst mean$84.83
current price$71.50
+26.8% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
BCC may suit investors who:
- Want exposure to residential construction through engineered wood products and a large distribution business that provides more stable revenues than pure commodity lumber
- Value Boise Cascade's low-debt balance sheet and consistent dividend program (including special dividends during strong cycles)
- Prefer a differentiated wood products position (EWP, distribution) versus pure commodity lumber exposure
WFG may suit investors who:
- Want large-scale North American lumber production exposure with one of the industry's lowest cost positions and significant scale advantages
- Value West Fraser's capital return through buybacks funded by strong lumber price cycle free cash flow
- Accept high earnings volatility from lumber price swings in exchange for the leverage to a potential housing market upcycle
Performance & AI score
| Metric | BCC | WFG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.4 | 38.2 |
| AI ranki | #1141 | #1406 |
| Latest closei | $75.30 | $71.50 |
| 1M returni | -9.15% | +0.59% |
| 6M returni | +10.92% | +19.80% |
| 1Y returni | -6.54% | -1.28% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BCC | WFG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.46K (-5.4%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.97K (-0.3%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $24.46K (+144.6%) started 2021-09-20 | $10.7K (+7.0%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $77.3K (+673.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $28.54K (+185.4%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | BCC | WFG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.63B | $5.24B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.57 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.27 | 27.45 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.45 | 1.05 |
| Analyst targeti | $96.50 | $84.83 |
| Target upsidei | +27.92% | +26.81% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | BCC | WFG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.20% | -6.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -0.70% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -0.70% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +0.67% | -8.08% |
| Operating margini | 4.58% | -5.58% |
| Profit margini | 1.64% | -22.98% |
| ROIC proxyi | 5.06% | -19.32% |
| Return on equityi | 5.06% | -19.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.18% | 1.93% |
| Payout ratioi | 29.83% | 72.19% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.05 | 1.12 |
| Debt/equityi | 27.11 | 7.03 |
| Current ratioi | 2.71 | 2.06 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.26 | 0.75 |
Correlation
Over the past year, BCC and WFG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.60), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.60
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.59
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.49
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
BCC max drawdowni27.89%
WFG max drawdowni22.60%
BCC max wkly dropi12.69%
WFG max wkly dropi10.64%
5Y risk snapshot
BCC max drawdowni56.47%
WFG max drawdowni42.04%
BCC max wkly dropi21.08%
WFG max wkly dropi15.83%
10Y risk snapshot
BCC max drawdowni56.47%
WFG max drawdowni78.66%
BCC max wkly dropi32.60%
WFG max wkly dropi39.67%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | BCC | WFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -6.54% | -1.28% |
| CAGRi | -6.55% | -1.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.21% | 33.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.11 | -0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.17 | -0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.89% | 22.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.55% | 5.86% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.50% | 12.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.21% | 13.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.91% | 6.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.69% | 10.64% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +83.68% | -0.16% |
| CAGRi | +12.95% | -0.03% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.18% | 34.09% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.58 | 0.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.47% | 42.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.62% | 27.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.95% | 21.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.42% | 23.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.86% | 7.21% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.08% | 15.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +366.31% | +151.31% |
| CAGRi | +16.65% | +9.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.66% | 39.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.47 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.47% | 78.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.62% | 27.74% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.20% | 21.33% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.32% | 26.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.86% | 15.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.60% | 39.67% |
Business comparison
| Category | BCC | WFG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Boise Cascade Company | West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. |
| Sector | Basic Materials | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Lumber & Wood Production | Lumber & Wood Production |
| Core business | Boise Cascade is a major manufacturer of engineered wood products (EWP) including I-joists, laminated veneer lumber (LVL), and laminated beams, plus plywood, and operates a large building materials distribution segment that serves building materials dealers and industrial accounts across the U.S. | West Fraser is one of North America's largest lumber producers, operating sawmills, engineered wood products facilities, and pulp and paper operations across Canada and the United States — producing dimensional lumber, structural panels, MDF, and LVL for the residential construction market. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Boise Cascade's EWP and plywood pricing and volume, distribution segment margins and market share, new residential construction activity as the primary demand driver, and capital allocation between dividends, buybacks, and capital investments. | Investors track West Fraser's lumber pricing (highly volatile), mill capacity utilization, fiber costs (timber and wood chips), housing start data as the primary demand driver, capital return through buybacks and dividends, and the company's low-cost production position. |
BCC strengths
- Distribution business provides more stable revenue through geographic reach and customer relationships than pure manufacturing — distribution gross margins are lower but volume is more consistent
- Engineered wood products command premium pricing over dimensional lumber due to performance advantages in modern residential and commercial construction
- Well-managed balance sheet with low debt and consistent special/regular dividend programs returning capital to shareholders
WFG strengths
- One of North America's largest lumber producers with scale advantages in wood fiber procurement, logistics, and manufacturing cost efficiency
- Diversified product mix (lumber, panels, pulp, specialty products) provides multiple cash-generating segments with somewhat different cyclical timing
- Low-cost Canadian lumber production operations historically competitive even in low lumber price environments
Risks to watch — BCC
- Housing construction cycles directly drive demand for wood products — mortgage rate increases reducing housing starts significantly impact Boise Cascade volumes
- Engineered wood products pricing is highly cyclical and correlated with new home construction activity — peaks and troughs can be dramatic
- Competition from commodity lumber and alternative building materials (steel framing, concrete) in price-sensitive applications
Risks to watch — WFG
- Lumber prices are among the most volatile commodity markets — prices can swing from very high to very low within 12-24 months depending on housing activity and sawmill capacity
- Canadian softwood lumber exports to the U.S. subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties — U.S.-Canada softwood lumber trade disputes are a recurring risk
- Housing construction cycles create severe earnings volatility — West Fraser's earnings can swing dramatically between lumber price peaks and troughs
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