GPK vs IP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GPK (Graphic Packaging) focuses on coated paperboard for consumer goods packaging (food, beverage, household brands), while IP (International Paper) is a containerboard and pulp giant serving industrial packaging needs with the DS Smith merger creating a global industrial packaging powerhouse. Both benefit from the shift from plastic to fiber-based packaging but serve different end markets.
GPK vs IP is consumer-facing fiber packaging (food and beverage boxes) versus industrial containerboard and corrugated packaging — similar sustainability tailwind but different end market exposure, customer bases, and cyclicality.
IP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. IP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-24.27% vs -50.80%), though GPK has the better forward P/E setup (10.01x vs 13.15x for IP). GPK leads on both revenue growth (-0.70%) and operating margin (4.53%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for IP (+22.11%) than for GPK (+12.49%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to sustainable consumer packaging with coated paperboard benefiting from plastic-to-fiber conversion in food, beverage, and household brands
- Value Graphic Packaging's vertically integrated operations and long-term supply agreements with major consumer brands providing recurring revenue
- See the secular shift away from plastic packaging as a multi-decade demand tailwind for fiber-based consumer packaging solutions
- Want exposure to industrial containerboard and corrugated box demand tied to e-commerce, manufacturing, and global trade activity
- Value International Paper's scale as one of the world's largest containerboard producers with DS Smith adding major European market presence
- See containerboard industry consolidation as reducing competitive intensity and supporting better pricing discipline through the commodity cycle
| Metric | GPK | IP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.8 | 40.2 |
| AI ranki | #3073 | #1173 |
| Latest closei | $9.84 | $35.55 |
| 1M returni | -10.30% | -11.24% |
| 6M returni | +5.13% | +4.56% |
| 1Y returni | -50.80% | -24.27% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GPK | IP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $4.93K (-50.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $7.55K (-24.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $5.15K (-48.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $9.3K (-7.0%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $7.15K (-28.5%) started 2016-09-19 | $17.06K (+70.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GPK | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $3.31B | $20.82B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.21 | 39.95 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.01 | 13.15 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.26 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.01 | 1.24 |
| Analyst targeti | $12.58 | $48.00 |
| Target upsidei | +12.49% | +22.11% |
| Metric | GPK | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -0.70% | -2.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -76.50% | -90.10% |
| EPS growthi | -76.50% | -90.10% |
| FCF margini | +2.75% | +6.80% |
| Operating margini | 4.53% | 2.30% |
| Profit margini | 2.25% | -14.21% |
| ROIC proxyi | 6.01% | -16.48% |
| Return on equityi | 6.01% | -16.48% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.06% | 4.71% |
| Payout ratioi | 67.69% | 158.12% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.66 | 0.89 |
| Debt/equityi | 176.15 | 68.51 |
| Current ratioi | 1.38 | 1.10 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.50 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, GPK and IP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.42), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GPK | IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -50.70% | -24.54% |
| CAGRi | -50.74% | -24.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.40% | 44.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.43 | -0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.93 | -0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.36% | 40.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.70% | 27.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 35.63% | 19.88% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.75% | 22.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.97% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.48% | 23.37% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -48.45% | -21.38% |
| CAGRi | -12.43% | -4.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.11% | 33.97% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.39 | -0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.53 | -0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.79% | 50.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 67.74% | 40.34% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.10% | 23.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.53% | 26.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.97% | 12.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.48% | 23.37% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -28.54% | +10.49% |
| CAGRi | -3.31% | +1.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.99% | 32.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.11 | 0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.15 | 0.08 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.79% | 55.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 67.74% | 40.34% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.35% | 22.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.62% | 26.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.97% | 12.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.91% | 23.37% |
| Category | GPK | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Graphic Packaging Holding Company | International Paper Company |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Packaging & Containers | Packaging & Containers |
| Core business | Graphic Packaging is a leading producer of coated paperboard and fiber-based consumer packaging — including beverage cartons, cereal boxes, food trays, and other consumer goods packaging for major brands across food, beverage, and healthcare categories. | International Paper is one of the world's largest producers of containerboard (corrugated boxes) and pulp, serving industrial customers across e-commerce, food, and manufacturing — executing a strategic transformation toward pure-play containerboard after divesting its printing papers business and merging with DS Smith for European expansion. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Graphic Packaging's coated paperboard pricing, volume trends tied to consumer goods demand, cost efficiency from converting operations, integration of recent acquisitions (AR Packaging), and free cash flow for debt reduction and capital return. | Investors track International Paper's containerboard pricing, box shipment volumes (a leading indicator of industrial and e-commerce activity), pulp pricing, and the DS Smith integration synergies and strategic transformation progress. |
- Coated paperboard focus in sustainable consumer packaging benefits from the secular shift from plastic to fiber-based packaging for food and beverage applications
- Vertically integrated operations spanning paperboard mills and converting plants optimize cost structure and quality control from raw material to finished package
- Long-term supply agreements with major consumer brands (food, beverage, household) provide revenue visibility through customer switching costs
- Containerboard and corrugated boxes are essential industrial packaging for virtually all manufactured goods shipments — demand is closely linked to e-commerce and industrial activity growth
- DS Smith acquisition creates a major global fiber-based packaging company with significant European market presence
- Containerboard industry consolidation reduces the number of large producers, supporting better pricing discipline through cycles
- Paperboard pricing is cyclical — periods of oversupply relative to demand can compress margins significantly as capacity additions catch up to demand growth
- Integration of AR Packaging acquisition added European exposure and complexity — execution risk and FX exposure from European operations
- Consumer goods demand softness from trade-down or volume declines at major customers flows through to packaging volume demand
- Containerboard is highly cyclical — demand slumps in recessions while capacity additions can create oversupply; 2022-2023 saw significant containerboard pricing weakness
- DS Smith integration complexity and significant debt taken on from the transaction require successful synergy delivery to justify the acquisition premium
- E-commerce packaging demand is structurally growing but can still experience cyclical swings tied to consumer spending and retailer inventory levels
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