ODFL vs UPS Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Old Dominion's premium less-than-truckload service model against UPS's global parcel and logistics network.
Use this Old Dominion Freight Line vs UPS comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
ODFL holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ODFL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+25.49% vs +19.93%), though UPS has the better forward P/E setup (13.04x vs 29.91x for ODFL). ODFL leads on both revenue growth (10.40%) and operating margin (28.84%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ODFL (+16.87%) than for UPS (+10.20%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 62.0 | 42.3 |
| AI ranki | #151 | #925 |
| Latest closei | $185.87 | $102.29 |
| 1M returni | -13.73% | -5.02% |
| 6M returni | -11.78% | -1.71% |
| 1Y returni | +25.49% | +19.93% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.49K (+24.9%) started 2025-09-04 | $12.11K (+21.1%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $12.71K (+27.1%) started 2021-09-07 | $7.19K (-28.1%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $85.18K (+751.8%) started 2016-09-06 | $18.14K (+81.4%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $41.31B | $89.61B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 38.20 | 19.58 |
| Forward P/Ei | 29.91 | 13.04 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.91 | 0.92 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.30 | 1.26 |
| Analyst targeti | $232.14 | $116.08 |
| Target upsidei | +16.87% | +10.20% |
| Metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.40% | 7.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 32.30% | -53.00% |
| EPS growthi | +32.30% | -53.00% |
| FCF margini | +17.33% | +6.18% |
| Operating margini | 28.84% | 9.05% |
| Profit margini | 19.44% | 5.08% |
| ROIC proxyi | 24.82% | 29.60% |
| Return on equityi | 24.82% | 29.60% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.58% | 6.23% |
| Betai | 1.18 | 1.04 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.44 | 189.90 |
| Current ratioi | 1.89 | 1.18 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.71 | 1.05 |
Over the past year, ODFL and UPS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.50), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +24.90% | +21.08% |
| CAGRi | +24.94% | +21.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.86% | 29.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | 0.64 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 0.88 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.32% | 21.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.27% | 14.76% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.51% | 7.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.50% | 9.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.93% | 10.47% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.35% | 12.66% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +25.09% | -38.98% |
| CAGRi | +4.59% | -9.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.91% | 28.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | -0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.26 | -0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.37% | 58.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.27% | 48.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.61% | 31.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.98% | 34.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.97% | 14.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 18.40% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +722.90% | +27.00% |
| CAGRi | +23.48% | +2.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.32% | 27.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.96 | 0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.37% | 58.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.27% | 48.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.20% | 20.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.39% | 26.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.97% | 14.11% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.13% | 18.40% |
| Category | ODFL | UPS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ODFL | UPS |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Trucking | Integrated Freight & Logistics |
| Core business | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. | United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. |
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