Data as of:
LIVE
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc. · Diversified Industrial Manufacturing
$269.42
-5.22% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
DOV
Dover Corporation · Diversified Industrial Manufacturing
$187.42
-7.39% this month
Comparison scoreboard
DOV LEADS 4/5AI Scorei
ITW 50.9
DOV ✓52.9
1Y Returni
ITW +2.21%
DOV ✓+8.46%
Fwd P/Ei
ITW 22.60
DOV ✓17.06
Target Up.i
ITW +7.77%
DOV ✓+24.26%
Op. Margini
ITW ✓26.90%
DOV 18.69%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/18/2026
Quick take
ITW vs DOV Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ITW and DOV are both Dividend Kings in diversified industrial manufacturing — both with exceptional long-term track records of dividend growth and quality business characteristics. ITW's 80/20 simplification model drives industry-leading margins (25%+) with disciplined focus on profitable customers. Dover is more acquisitive with broader end-market diversification including fuel dispensing. ITW is the higher-margin, more systematic compounder; Dover offers more segment diversification and growth from acquisitions.
ITW vs DOV — Illinois Tool Works (the 80/20 simplification master with 25%+ operating margins across 7 industrial segments, decentralized execution, and Dividend Aristocrat consistency) versus Dover Corporation (the diversified Dividend King with 5 segments including Gilbarco Veeder-Root fuel dispensing leadership, heat exchanger growth, and 68+ years of consecutive dividend increases through acquisitive growth).
Live analysis · updated 9/18/2026
DOV holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DOV leads on both 1-year return (+8.46%) and forward P/E quality (17.06x vs 22.60x for ITW), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, DOV is growing revenue faster (6.90%), while ITW maintains the higher operating margin (26.90%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DOV (+24.26%) than for ITW (+7.77%).
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Normalized 1Y performance
ITW
DOV
Recent returns
ITW
DOV
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
ITW
Price target range
analyst mean$301.86
current price$269.42
+7.8% upside to analyst mean
DOV
Price target range
analyst mean$246.89
current price$187.42
+24.3% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ITW may suit investors who:
- value ITW's 80/20 simplification discipline as a differentiating management philosophy creating industry-leading margins (25%+) through systematic customer and product focus
- prefer highly predictable FCF conversion (90%+) supporting dividend growth and buybacks simultaneously without sacrificing capital allocation clarity
- want the most efficient industrial business model — ITW's focus on 20% of customers generating 80% of revenue creates lean, high-margin units that outperform generalist peers
- are comfortable with automotive OEM cyclicality, slower revenue growth vs more acquisitive peers, and premium valuation requiring consistent 25%+ margin maintenance
DOV may suit investors who:
- value Dover's fuel dispensing leadership (Gilbarco Veeder-Root) as critical infrastructure for both petroleum and EV charging fueling networks — an infrastructure business with long replacement cycles
- see Dover's 68+ year Dividend King record as demonstrating exceptional management discipline through multiple recessions and industrial cycles
- prefer more acquisitive growth — Dover's approach of acquiring niche industrial businesses provides potential for above-organic revenue growth vs ITW's primarily organic model
- are comfortable with acquisition integration risk, more variable revenue growth across diverse segments, and Gilbarco's evolution as EV adoption gradually changes the fuel dispensing landscape
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.9 | 52.9 |
| AI ranki | #488 | #371 |
| Latest closei | $269.42 | $187.42 |
| 1M returni | -5.22% | -7.39% |
| 6M returni | +4.56% | -10.48% |
| 1Y returni | +2.21% | +8.46% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.29K (+2.9%) started 2025-09-19 | $10.94K (+9.4%) started 2025-09-19 |
| 5Y ago | $14.93K (+49.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $12.64K (+26.4%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $35.38K (+253.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $45.46K (+354.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $79.77B | $26.76B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.37 | 24.02 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.60 | 17.06 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.38 | 3.36 |
| Analyst targeti | $301.86 | $246.89 |
| Target upsidei | +7.77% | +24.26% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.10% | 6.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 10.10% | 14.10% |
| EPS growthi | +10.10% | +14.10% |
| FCF margini | +14.77% | +10.76% |
| Operating margini | 26.90% | 18.69% |
| Profit margini | 19.39% | 13.48% |
| ROIC proxyi | 104.62% | 14.91% |
| Return on equityi | 104.62% | 14.91% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.46% | 1.06% |
| Payout ratioi | 58.33% | 25.15% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.00 | 1.16 |
| Debt/equityi | 334.85 | 42.32 |
| Current ratioi | 1.11 | 1.98 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.74 | 1.31 |
Correlation
Over the past year, ITW and DOV have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.61), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.61
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.72
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.74
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ITW max drawdowni17.95%
DOV max drawdowni19.69%
ITW max wkly dropi6.71%
DOV max wkly dropi9.06%
5Y risk snapshot
ITW max drawdowni28.05%
DOV max drawdowni35.56%
ITW max wkly dropi12.18%
DOV max wkly dropi14.35%
10Y risk snapshot
ITW max drawdowni37.85%
DOV max drawdowni45.24%
ITW max wkly dropi20.86%
DOV max wkly dropi27.13%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +2.89% | +9.38% |
| CAGRi | +2.90% | +9.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.33% | 26.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.03 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.04 | 0.46 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.95% | 19.69% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.07% | 19.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.25% | 5.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.79% | 7.89% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.54% | 7.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.71% | 9.06% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +36.40% | +20.69% |
| CAGRi | +6.41% | +3.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.39% | 25.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.19 | 0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.27 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 28.05% | 35.56% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.07% | 19.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.40% | 13.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.25% | 16.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.79% | 9.10% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.18% | 14.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +182.22% | +289.93% |
| CAGRi | +10.93% | +14.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.88% | 26.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 0.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.85% | 45.24% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.07% | 19.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.46% | 9.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.00% | 12.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.51% | 16.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.86% | 27.13% |
Business comparison
| Category | ITW | DOV |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Illinois Tool Works Inc. | Dover Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Specialty Industrial Machinery | Specialty Industrial Machinery |
| Core business | Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is a diversified manufacturer with 7 segments: Automotive OEM, Food Equipment, Test & Measurement, Welding, Polymers & Fluids, Construction Products, and Specialty Products. ITW's 80/20 simplification strategy focuses each business on its most profitable 20% of customers and products that generate 80% of revenue — systematically pruning complexity to expand margins. ITW's decentralized structure gives individual business units entrepreneurial autonomy while following the 80/20 discipline. ITW is a Dividend Aristocrat with 50+ consecutive years of dividend increases. | Dover Corporation is a diversified manufacturer with 5 segments: Engineered Products, Clean Energy & Fueling (fuel dispensing equipment), Imaging & Identification (marking systems, product decoration), Pumps & Process Solutions, and Climate & Sustainability Technologies. Dover serves varied industrial end markets including fuel dispensing (Gilbarco Veeder-Root), industrial refrigeration, heat exchangers, and inkjet printing systems for product coding/marking. Dover has been more acquisitive than ITW — regularly acquiring niche businesses in its five segments to supplement organic growth. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on ITW's organic revenue growth, operating margin performance (25%+ margins), free cash flow conversion, and 80/20 simplification benefits across its 7 business segments. | Investors focus on Dover's organic revenue growth across segments, Clean Energy fueling equipment and heat exchanger growth, Climate & Sustainability margins, and acquisition integration execution. |
ITW strengths
- 80/20 simplification model driving exceptional margins: ITW's 80/20 system systematically identifies and focuses on high-margin customers and products — generating 25%+ operating margins vs typical industrial averages of 10-15%
- Decentralized business model with 80+ business units: ITW's structure empowers individual units to focus on their specific markets and customer relationships — creating entrepreneurial execution throughout a large conglomerate
- Dividend Aristocrat with exceptional FCF: ITW converts 90%+ of net income to free cash flow — funding consistent dividend growth and substantial buybacks simultaneously
DOV strengths
- Diversification across 5 segments serving different industrial cycles: Dover's segment diversity (fuel dispensing, heat exchangers, inkjet printing, pumps) reduces single-market cyclicality
- Fuel dispensing and clean energy infrastructure: Gilbarco Veeder-Root is the leading US fuel dispenser manufacturer — providing fueling infrastructure for both traditional petroleum and EV charging equipment
- Dividend King with 68+ consecutive years: Dover is one of the few Dividend Kings in industrial manufacturing with 68+ consecutive annual dividend increases
Risks to watch — ITW
- Automotive OEM exposure cyclicality: ITW's Automotive segment serves auto OEMs (car body hardware, electrical components) — automotive production cycles create revenue variability in this segment
- Organic growth moderation in mature industrial markets: ITW's 80/20 strategy has optimized for margin but also occasionally trades revenue growth for profitability — portfolio simplification can result in slower top-line growth vs more acquisitive peers
- High valuation for an industrial company: ITW trades at 25-30x earnings — expensive for a company with 4-6% organic growth, requiring consistent execution to justify vs lower-multiple peers
Risks to watch — DOV
- Revenue growth can be more variable than ITW's systematic approach: Dover's segment mix creates different growth cycles vs ITW's more systematic 80/20 disciplined approach across units
- Acquisition integration risk: Dover's more acquisitive growth strategy creates integration execution risk vs ITW's organic and 80/20 focus
- Fuel dispensing evolution: Gilbarco's fuel dispenser business must evolve as EV adoption gradually reduces traditional petroleum fueling volumes — the pace of EV transition affects Dover's largest revenue segment
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