SBUX vs MCD: Starbucks vs McDonald's Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Starbucks is a premium coffee brand undergoing a strategic turnaround after same-store sales declines in the US and China; McDonald's is the world's most franchised and consistent QSR business with reliable cash flows and a 45+ year dividend growth record. The comparison is between a turnaround opportunity and a quality compounder.
Use this SBUX vs MCD comparison to choose between a turnaround story with brand equity and long-term potential, and a high-quality franchise compounder with exceptional capital return consistency. McDonald's is the lower-risk choice; Starbucks offers more upside if the Niccol turnaround restores traffic and margins.
MCD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SBUX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+17.89% vs -19.88%), though MCD has the better forward P/E setup (18.96x vs 34.62x for SBUX). MCD leads on both revenue growth (3.70%) and operating margin (46.48%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MCD (+19.01%) than for SBUX (+4.06%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe the Brian Niccol-led turnaround will restore US same-store sales and China performance
- Value Starbucks' premium brand and loyalty program as durable assets worth owning through the recovery
- Are willing to accept near-term earnings pressure in exchange for potential rerating on execution
- Want exposure to long-term China coffee market growth through a premium brand with existing scale
- Want one of the world's most predictable QSR franchise cash flow machines with 45+ years of dividend growth
- Value the asset-light franchised model's royalty and rent income with minimal operational exposure
- Prefer a defensive consumer holding with global scale and strong value positioning
- Prioritise consistent dividend growth and capital return reliability over turnaround upside
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.3 | 49.1 |
| AI ranki | #903 | #536 |
| Latest closei | $100.80 | $248.46 |
| 1M returni | +7.07% | +4.25% |
| 3M returni | -2.37% | -6.16% |
| 6M returni | +2.16% | -17.00% |
| 1Y returni | +17.89% | -19.88% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.8K (+18.0%) started 2025-10-23 | $8.09K (-19.1%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $10.49K (+4.9%) started 2021-10-25 | $12.32K (+23.2%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $27.34K (+173.4%) started 2016-10-24 | $33.59K (+235.9%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $122.95B | $187.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 62.34 | 21.51 |
| Forward P/Ei | 34.62 | 18.96 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.80 | 8.55 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.70 | 8.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $112.23 | $315.39 |
| Target upsidei | +4.06% | +19.01% |
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.40% | 3.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 85.70% | 5.70% |
| EPS growthi | +85.70% | +5.70% |
| FCF margini | +8.00% | +22.61% |
| Operating margini | 12.92% | 46.48% |
| Profit margini | 5.17% | 31.72% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.31% | 2.81% |
| Payout ratioi | 142.77% | 59.71% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.97 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.76 | 1.08 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.50 | 0.82 |
Over the past year, SBUX and MCD have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.34), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +17.98% | -19.06% |
| CAGRi | +18.01% | -19.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.58% | 19.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | -1.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.90 | -1.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.40% | 32.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.14% | 27.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.39% | 12.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.93% | 16.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.03% | 4.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.66% | 6.79% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -4.16% | +13.38% |
| CAGRi | -0.85% | +2.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.93% | 17.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.02 | -0.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.80% | 32.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.35% | 27.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.52% | 6.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.59% | 9.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.88% | 5.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.87% | 8.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +123.58% | +168.16% |
| CAGRi | +8.38% | +10.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.65% | 20.64% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.68% | 36.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.45% | 27.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.74% | 5.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.87% | 8.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.20% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.22% | 27.07% |
| Category | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Starbucks Corporation | McDonald's Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | World's largest specialty coffee chain with approximately 36,000+ stores globally. Mix of company-operated and licensed stores. Rewards loyalty program is one of the largest in food service. Undergoing a strategic turnaround under new CEO Brian Niccol (former Chipotle CEO). | World's largest fast food restaurant company with approximately 40,000+ locations in 100+ countries. Highly franchised model (95%+ franchise) generates royalty fees and rent from franchisee-operated restaurants. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales recovery in the US and China, Starbucks Rewards engagement, operational efficiency under the Niccol turnaround, and international growth. | Global comparable sales growth, value menu competitiveness, international franchisee performance, digital and loyalty adoption, and capital return consistency. |
- Global coffee brand with exceptional customer loyalty through the Starbucks Rewards program
- Premium positioning provides pricing power above QSR peers in the coffee category
- China is a massive long-term growth opportunity with a large existing store footprint
- Highly franchised model generates predictable royalty and rent income with minimal operational risk
- Global scale and value positioning make McDonald's resilient across economic environments
- Consistent 45+ year dividend growth record — one of the most reliable Dividend Aristocrats in food service
- US same-store sales have declined as consumers trade down and transaction counts fall
- China performance remains weak due to local competition and macro headwinds
- Turnaround execution risk — strategy simplification and labour reinvestment cost vs revenue recovery timeline
- Consumers are increasingly value-sensitive — McDonald's must compete aggressively on price while protecting franchise profitability
- E. coli outbreak in 2024 caused temporary traffic disruption and brand trust headwinds
- Franchisee profitability under pressure from higher labour and food costs could slow new unit development
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