LIVE
SBUX
Starbucks Corporation · Restaurants / Consumer
$94.82
-9.63% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
MCD
McDonald's Corporation · Restaurants
$277.78
+0.74% this month
AI Score
42.0vs50.2
MCD ↑1Y Return
+5.78%vs-9.62%
SBUX ↑Forward P/E
31.65xvs19.68x
MCD ↑Target Upside
+11.50%vs+18.39%
MCD ↑Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
SBUX
1
MCD
4
Metrics last refreshed: 6/9/2026
Quick take
SBUX vs MCD: Starbucks vs McDonald's Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Starbucks is a premium coffee brand undergoing a strategic turnaround after same-store sales declines in the US and China; McDonald's is the world's most franchised and consistent QSR business with reliable cash flows and a 45+ year dividend growth record. The comparison is between a turnaround opportunity and a quality compounder.
Use this SBUX vs MCD comparison to choose between a turnaround story with brand equity and long-term potential, and a high-quality franchise compounder with exceptional capital return consistency. McDonald's is the lower-risk choice; Starbucks offers more upside if the Niccol turnaround restores traffic and margins.
Live analysis · updated 6/9/2026
MCD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SBUX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+5.78% vs -9.62%), though MCD trades at the lower forward P/E (19.68x vs 31.65x). MCD leads on both revenue growth (9.40%) and operating margin (44.25%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MCD (+18.39%) than for SBUX (+11.50%).
Comparison scoreboard
MCD LEADS 4/5AI Score
SBUX 42.0
MCD ✓50.2
1Y Return
SBUX ✓+5.78%
MCD -9.62%
Fwd P/E
SBUX 31.65
MCD ✓19.68
Target Up.
SBUX +11.50%
MCD ✓+18.39%
Op. Margin
SBUX 8.42%
MCD ✓44.25%
Normalized 1Y performance
SBUX
MCD
Recent returns
SBUX
MCD
Analyst price targets & sentiment
SBUX · 29 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.4/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$69.00
analyst high$125.00
analyst mean$106.25
current price$94.82
+11.5% upside to analyst mean
MCD · 28 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$300.00
analyst high$364.00
analyst mean$331.29
current price$277.78
+18.4% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
SBUX may suit investors who:
- →Believe the Brian Niccol-led turnaround will restore US same-store sales and China performance
- →Value Starbucks' premium brand and loyalty program as durable assets worth owning through the recovery
- →Are willing to accept near-term earnings pressure in exchange for potential rerating on execution
- →Want exposure to long-term China coffee market growth through a premium brand with existing scale
MCD may suit investors who:
- →Want one of the world's most predictable QSR franchise cash flow machines with 45+ years of dividend growth
- →Value the asset-light franchised model's royalty and rent income with minimal operational exposure
- →Prefer a defensive consumer holding with global scale and strong value positioning
- →Prioritise consistent dividend growth and capital return reliability over turnaround upside
Performance & AI score
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 42.0 | 50.2 |
| AI rank | #926 | #495 |
| Latest close | $94.82 | $277.78 |
| 1M return | -9.63% | +0.74% |
| 6M return | +11.40% | -10.75% |
| 1Y return | +5.78% | -9.62% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.46K (+4.6%) started 2025-06-09 | $9.11K (-8.9%) started 2025-06-09 |
| 5Y ago | $10.24K (+2.4%) started 2021-06-09 | $14.28K (+42.8%) started 2021-06-09 |
| 10Y ago | $25.26K (+152.6%) started 2016-06-09 | $35.33K (+253.3%) started 2016-06-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $108.6B | $198.83B |
| Trailing P/E | 72.74 | 23.09 |
| Forward P/E | 31.65 | 19.68 |
| Price/Sales | 2.80 | 8.55 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.41 | 9.20 |
| Analyst target | $106.25 | $331.29 |
| Target upside | +11.50% | +18.39% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 8.80% | 9.40% |
| Earnings growth | 32.60% | 6.90% |
| EPS growth | +32.60% | +6.90% |
| FCF margin | -3.39% | +21.69% |
| Operating margin | 8.42% | 44.25% |
| Profit margin | 3.89% | 31.62% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equity | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yield | 2.60% | 2.66% |
| Beta | 0.98 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratio | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratio | 0.26 | 0.87 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
SBUX max drawdown19.06%
MCD max drawdown20.04%
SBUX max wkly drop9.21%
MCD max wkly drop5.66%
5Y risk snapshot
SBUX max drawdown43.68%
MCD max drawdown20.04%
SBUX max wkly drop18.87%
MCD max wkly drop8.35%
10Y risk snapshot
SBUX max drawdown43.68%
MCD max drawdown36.90%
SBUX max wkly drop21.22%
MCD max wkly drop27.07%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +4.58% | -8.86% |
| CAGR | +4.60% | -8.89% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.14 | -0.75 | |
| Max drawdown | 19.06% | 20.04% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.03% | 3.24% | |
| Max wkly drop | 9.21% | 5.66% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -6.80% | +30.68% |
| CAGR | -1.40% | +5.50% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.03 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdown | 43.68% | 20.04% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.88% | 5.71% | |
| Max wkly drop | 18.87% | 8.35% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +105.73% | +179.45% |
| CAGR | +7.48% | +10.83% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.24 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdown | 43.68% | 36.90% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.20% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly drop | 21.22% | 27.07% |
Business comparison
| Category | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Starbucks Corporation | McDonald's Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | World's largest specialty coffee chain with approximately 36,000+ stores globally. Mix of company-operated and licensed stores. Rewards loyalty program is one of the largest in food service. Undergoing a strategic turnaround under new CEO Brian Niccol (former Chipotle CEO). | World's largest fast food restaurant company with approximately 40,000+ locations in 100+ countries. Highly franchised model (95%+ franchise) generates royalty fees and rent from franchisee-operated restaurants. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales recovery in the US and China, Starbucks Rewards engagement, operational efficiency under the Niccol turnaround, and international growth. | Global comparable sales growth, value menu competitiveness, international franchisee performance, digital and loyalty adoption, and capital return consistency. |
SBUX strengths
- →Global coffee brand with exceptional customer loyalty through the Starbucks Rewards program
- →Premium positioning provides pricing power above QSR peers in the coffee category
- →China is a massive long-term growth opportunity with a large existing store footprint
MCD strengths
- →Highly franchised model generates predictable royalty and rent income with minimal operational risk
- →Global scale and value positioning make McDonald's resilient across economic environments
- →Consistent 45+ year dividend growth record — one of the most reliable Dividend Aristocrats in food service
Risks to watch — SBUX
- →US same-store sales have declined as consumers trade down and transaction counts fall
- →China performance remains weak due to local competition and macro headwinds
- →Turnaround execution risk — strategy simplification and labour reinvestment cost vs revenue recovery timeline
Risks to watch — MCD
- →Consumers are increasingly value-sensitive — McDonald's must compete aggressively on price while protecting franchise profitability
- →E. coli outbreak in 2024 caused temporary traffic disruption and brand trust headwinds
- →Franchisee profitability under pressure from higher labour and food costs could slow new unit development
Frequently asked questions
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