SBUX vs MCD: Starbucks vs McDonald's Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Starbucks is a premium coffee brand undergoing a strategic turnaround after same-store sales declines in the US and China; McDonald's is the world's most franchised and consistent QSR business with reliable cash flows and a 45+ year dividend growth record. The comparison is between a turnaround opportunity and a quality compounder.
Use this SBUX vs MCD comparison to choose between a turnaround story with brand equity and long-term potential, and a high-quality franchise compounder with exceptional capital return consistency. McDonald's is the lower-risk choice; Starbucks offers more upside if the Niccol turnaround restores traffic and margins.
MCD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SBUX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+6.47% vs -12.16%), though MCD has the better forward P/E setup (18.92x vs 35.09x for SBUX). MCD leads on both revenue growth (9.40%) and operating margin (44.25%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MCD (+22.01%) than for SBUX (+0.91%).
- →Believe the Brian Niccol-led turnaround will restore US same-store sales and China performance
- →Value Starbucks' premium brand and loyalty program as durable assets worth owning through the recovery
- →Are willing to accept near-term earnings pressure in exchange for potential rerating on execution
- →Want exposure to long-term China coffee market growth through a premium brand with existing scale
- →Want one of the world's most predictable QSR franchise cash flow machines with 45+ years of dividend growth
- →Value the asset-light franchised model's royalty and rent income with minimal operational exposure
- →Prefer a defensive consumer holding with global scale and strong value positioning
- →Prioritise consistent dividend growth and capital return reliability over turnaround upside
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 39.5 | 49.2 |
| AI rank | #1193 | #545 |
| Latest close | $103.21 | $262.80 |
| 1M return | +2.14% | -3.26% |
| 6M return | +7.03% | -14.03% |
| 1Y return | +6.47% | -12.16% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.76K (+7.6%) started 2025-07-23 | $8.82K (-11.8%) started 2025-07-23 |
| 5Y ago | $9.85K (-1.5%) started 2021-07-26 | $12.82K (+28.2%) started 2021-07-26 |
| 10Y ago | $26.37K (+163.7%) started 2016-07-25 | $32.22K (+222.2%) started 2016-07-25 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $120.23B | $190.21B |
| Trailing P/E | 80.53 | 22.07 |
| Forward P/E | 35.09 | 18.92 |
| Price/Sales | 2.80 | 8.55 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.72 | 8.89 |
| Analyst target | $106.45 | $326.65 |
| Target upside | +0.91% | +22.01% |
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 8.80% | 9.40% |
| Earnings growth | 32.60% | 6.90% |
| EPS growth | +32.60% | +6.90% |
| FCF margin | -3.39% | +21.69% |
| Operating margin | 8.42% | 44.25% |
| Profit margin | 3.89% | 31.62% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equity | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yield | 2.35% | 2.78% |
| Beta | 0.97 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratio | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratio | 0.26 | 0.87 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +7.60% | -11.85% |
| CAGR | +7.61% | -11.86% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.24 | -0.86 | |
| Max drawdown | 18.20% | 22.95% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.03% | 3.41% | |
| Max wkly drop | 9.21% | 6.79% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -10.36% | +17.30% |
| CAGR | -2.17% | +3.25% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.05 | 0.01 | |
| Max drawdown | 43.68% | 22.95% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.88% | 5.71% | |
| Max wkly drop | 18.87% | 8.35% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +114.78% | +154.81% |
| CAGR | +7.95% | +9.81% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.25 | 0.34 | |
| Max drawdown | 43.68% | 36.90% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.20% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly drop | 21.22% | 27.07% |
| Category | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Starbucks Corporation | McDonald's Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | World's largest specialty coffee chain with approximately 36,000+ stores globally. Mix of company-operated and licensed stores. Rewards loyalty program is one of the largest in food service. Undergoing a strategic turnaround under new CEO Brian Niccol (former Chipotle CEO). | World's largest fast food restaurant company with approximately 40,000+ locations in 100+ countries. Highly franchised model (95%+ franchise) generates royalty fees and rent from franchisee-operated restaurants. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales recovery in the US and China, Starbucks Rewards engagement, operational efficiency under the Niccol turnaround, and international growth. | Global comparable sales growth, value menu competitiveness, international franchisee performance, digital and loyalty adoption, and capital return consistency. |
- →Global coffee brand with exceptional customer loyalty through the Starbucks Rewards program
- →Premium positioning provides pricing power above QSR peers in the coffee category
- →China is a massive long-term growth opportunity with a large existing store footprint
- →Highly franchised model generates predictable royalty and rent income with minimal operational risk
- →Global scale and value positioning make McDonald's resilient across economic environments
- →Consistent 45+ year dividend growth record — one of the most reliable Dividend Aristocrats in food service
- →US same-store sales have declined as consumers trade down and transaction counts fall
- →China performance remains weak due to local competition and macro headwinds
- →Turnaround execution risk — strategy simplification and labour reinvestment cost vs revenue recovery timeline
- →Consumers are increasingly value-sensitive — McDonald's must compete aggressively on price while protecting franchise profitability
- →E. coli outbreak in 2024 caused temporary traffic disruption and brand trust headwinds
- →Franchisee profitability under pressure from higher labour and food costs could slow new unit development
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