SBUX vs MCD: Starbucks vs McDonald's Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Starbucks is a premium coffee brand undergoing a strategic turnaround after same-store sales declines in the US and China; McDonald's is the world's most franchised and consistent QSR business with reliable cash flows and a 45+ year dividend growth record. The comparison is between a turnaround opportunity and a quality compounder.
Use this SBUX vs MCD comparison to choose between a turnaround story with brand equity and long-term potential, and a high-quality franchise compounder with exceptional capital return consistency. McDonald's is the lower-risk choice; Starbucks offers more upside if the Niccol turnaround restores traffic and margins.
MCD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SBUX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+19.74% vs -19.19%), though MCD has the better forward P/E setup (18.96x vs 34.62x for SBUX). MCD leads on both revenue growth (3.70%) and operating margin (46.48%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MCD (+19.01%) than for SBUX (+4.06%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe the Brian Niccol-led turnaround will restore US same-store sales and China performance
- Value Starbucks' premium brand and loyalty program as durable assets worth owning through the recovery
- Are willing to accept near-term earnings pressure in exchange for potential rerating on execution
- Want exposure to long-term China coffee market growth through a premium brand with existing scale
- Want one of the world's most predictable QSR franchise cash flow machines with 45+ years of dividend growth
- Value the asset-light franchised model's royalty and rent income with minimal operational exposure
- Prefer a defensive consumer holding with global scale and strong value positioning
- Prioritise consistent dividend growth and capital return reliability over turnaround upside
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.3 | 49.1 |
| AI ranki | #926 | #562 |
| Latest closei | $104.47 | $255.69 |
| 1M returni | -1.44% | -6.68% |
| 6M returni | +5.86% | -21.91% |
| 1Y returni | +19.74% | -19.19% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.01K (+20.1%) started 2025-09-04 | $8.07K (-19.3%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $10.77K (+7.7%) started 2021-09-07 | $12.74K (+27.4%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $27.4K (+174.0%) started 2016-09-06 | $33.48K (+234.8%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $122.95B | $187.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 62.34 | 21.51 |
| Forward P/Ei | 34.62 | 18.96 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.80 | 8.55 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.70 | 8.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $112.23 | $315.39 |
| Target upsidei | +4.06% | +19.01% |
| Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.40% | 3.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 85.70% | 5.70% |
| EPS growthi | +85.70% | +5.70% |
| FCF margini | +8.00% | +22.61% |
| Operating margini | 12.92% | 46.48% |
| Profit margini | 5.17% | 31.72% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.31% | 2.81% |
| Betai | 0.97 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.76 | 1.08 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.50 | 0.82 |
Over the past year, SBUX and MCD have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.31), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +20.07% | -19.34% |
| CAGRi | +20.10% | -19.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.73% | 18.54% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.64 | -1.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.99 | -1.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.51% | 25.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.76% | 25.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.40% | 9.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.43% | 12.58% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.03% | 3.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.21% | 6.79% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -1.60% | +17.25% |
| CAGRi | -0.32% | +3.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.82% | 17.74% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.74% | 25.03% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.16% | 25.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.86% | 6.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.97% | 8.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.88% | 5.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.87% | 8.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +124.11% | +167.31% |
| CAGRi | +8.41% | +10.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.56% | 20.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.68% | 36.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.27% | 25.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.60% | 5.38% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.78% | 7.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.20% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.22% | 27.07% |
| Category | SBUX | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Starbucks Corporation | McDonald's Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | World's largest specialty coffee chain with approximately 36,000+ stores globally. Mix of company-operated and licensed stores. Rewards loyalty program is one of the largest in food service. Undergoing a strategic turnaround under new CEO Brian Niccol (former Chipotle CEO). | World's largest fast food restaurant company with approximately 40,000+ locations in 100+ countries. Highly franchised model (95%+ franchise) generates royalty fees and rent from franchisee-operated restaurants. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales recovery in the US and China, Starbucks Rewards engagement, operational efficiency under the Niccol turnaround, and international growth. | Global comparable sales growth, value menu competitiveness, international franchisee performance, digital and loyalty adoption, and capital return consistency. |
- Global coffee brand with exceptional customer loyalty through the Starbucks Rewards program
- Premium positioning provides pricing power above QSR peers in the coffee category
- China is a massive long-term growth opportunity with a large existing store footprint
- Highly franchised model generates predictable royalty and rent income with minimal operational risk
- Global scale and value positioning make McDonald's resilient across economic environments
- Consistent 45+ year dividend growth record — one of the most reliable Dividend Aristocrats in food service
- US same-store sales have declined as consumers trade down and transaction counts fall
- China performance remains weak due to local competition and macro headwinds
- Turnaround execution risk — strategy simplification and labour reinvestment cost vs revenue recovery timeline
- Consumers are increasingly value-sensitive — McDonald's must compete aggressively on price while protecting franchise profitability
- E. coli outbreak in 2024 caused temporary traffic disruption and brand trust headwinds
- Franchisee profitability under pressure from higher labour and food costs could slow new unit development
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