SBUX vs CMC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Starbucks and Dutch Bros are both specialty coffee chains but at very different stages and scales. Starbucks is the global coffee giant executing a turnaround to restore US and China traffic. Dutch Bros is a high-growth regional chain expanding nationally with superior unit economics. Starbucks offers brand quality recovery with a turnaround thesis; Dutch Bros offers growth multiple from early-innings national unit expansion.
SBUX vs CMC is the global coffeehouse brand executing operational turnaround under Brian Niccol to restore customer traffic and experience from mobile order complexity (Starbucks) versus the high-growth drive-thru coffee chain with superior unit economics expanding nationally from 900 toward potential 4,000+ US locations (Dutch Bros) — turnaround brand recovery vs high-growth unit expansion.
CMC holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SBUX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+14.88% vs +9.38%), though CMC has the better forward P/E setup (8.84x vs 34.62x for SBUX). On fundamentals, CMC is growing revenue faster (22.90%), while SBUX maintains the higher operating margin (12.92%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMC (+25.16%) than for SBUX (+4.06%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the global coffee brand recovery thesis under Brian Niccol — one of the most proven QSR turnaround operators who transformed Chipotle's operations and culture
- value Starbucks' 33M Rewards member loyalty program and Nestlé CPG royalty income as durable revenue streams during traffic recovery
- want premium coffee brand exposure at a potentially discounted valuation from turnaround uncertainty rather than paying for growth
- are comfortable with US comp traffic decline duration, China competitive recovery uncertainty, and complexity of executing turnaround across 36,000+ global stores
- prefer the high-growth specialty coffee chain in early innings of national expansion with drive-thru-only model providing unit economics advantages over café-format competitors
- value Dutch Bros' Gen Z and millennial brand fanaticism creating viral marketing without proportional advertising spend
- want QSR growth multiple from a brand expanding from 900 to potential 4,000+ US locations with proven strong unit economics in established markets
- are comfortable with same-shop sales deceleration as concept matures, unproven Eastern US market expansion, and growth stock valuation requiring consistent unit growth execution
| Metric | SBUX | CMC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.3 | 49.5 |
| AI ranki | #947 | #569 |
| Latest closei | $95.83 | $64.50 |
| 1M returni | -8.72% | -5.37% |
| 6M returni | 0.00% | +7.88% |
| 1Y returni | +14.88% | +9.38% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SBUX | CMC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.49K (+14.9%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.07K (+10.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $10.23K (+2.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $24.94K (+149.4%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $26.56K (+165.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $62.72K (+527.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SBUX | CMC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $122.95B | N/A |
| Trailing P/Ei | 62.34 | 12.19 |
| Forward P/Ei | 34.62 | 8.84 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.80 | 0.92 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.70 | 1.15 |
| Analyst targeti | $112.23 | $80.73 |
| Target upsidei | +4.06% | +25.16% |
| Metric | SBUX | CMC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.40% | 22.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 85.70% | 112.30% |
| EPS growthi | +85.70% | +112.30% |
| FCF margini | +8.00% | +1.51% |
| Operating margini | 12.92% | 9.48% |
| Profit margini | 5.17% | 6.72% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 13.79% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 13.79% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.31% | 1.24% |
| Payout ratioi | 142.77% | 13.99% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | 5 yrs |
| Betai | 0.97 | 1.52 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 79.98 |
| Current ratioi | 0.76 | 2.33 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.50 | 1.31 |
Over the past year, SBUX and CMC have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.17), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SBUX | CMC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +14.88% | +9.38% |
| CAGRi | +14.89% | +9.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.87% | 37.09% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.48 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.74 | 0.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.51% | 29.96% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.72% | 21.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.50% | 10.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.67% | 14.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.03% | 7.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.21% | 16.68% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -6.54% | +132.42% |
| CAGRi | -1.34% | +18.40% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.82% | 35.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.03 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.04 | 0.77 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.80% | 37.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.67% | 21.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.21% | 11.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.45% | 14.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.88% | 11.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.87% | 17.40% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +117.25% | +410.33% |
| CAGRi | +8.07% | +17.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.57% | 39.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.26 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.38 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.68% | 53.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.77% | 21.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.59% | 15.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.79% | 18.44% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.20% | 17.36% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.22% | 25.11% |
| Category | SBUX | CMC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Starbucks Corporation | Dutch Bros Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Restaurants | Metal Fabrication |
| Core business | Starbucks is the world's largest coffeehouse chain with 36,000+ stores in 80+ countries. Starbucks' Rewards loyalty program (33M+ members) drives personalized mobile ordering and repeat visits. Starbucks China is a major growth priority. CEO Brian Niccol (from Chipotle) is executing a turnaround: reducing menu complexity, improving store speed and experience, fixing mobile order queuing, and returning Starbucks to its 'third place' community feel. Starbucks licenses its brand to Nestlé (packaged coffee) for significant royalty income. | Dutch Bros is a fast-growing drive-thru coffee chain headquartered in Oregon, operating 900+ locations primarily in the US West and Sun Belt expanding eastward. Dutch Bros' model is differentiated: small drive-thru-only kiosks with no seating (lower real estate cost), a young enthusiastic 'broista' culture focused on customer experience, and a customizable menu of coffee drinks, energy drinks, and rebels. Dutch Bros' unit economics are exceptional — small format stores with high throughput create strong AUVs (average unit volumes). Dutch Bros is in high-growth mode opening 150+ new locations annually. |
| Investor focus | Investors track US comparable sales (traffic and ticket), China comp sales, Rewards member engagement, and turnaround execution under Brian Niccol. | Investors track new unit openings, same-shop sales, Dutch Bros Pass loyalty adoption, and AUV (average unit volume) per location. |
- Rewards loyalty ecosystem: 33M+ active US Rewards members driving ~60% of US transactions — one of the most valuable loyalty programs in QSR
- Nestlé CPG partnership generates royalty income that grows with Starbucks brand strength globally without capital investment
- Brian Niccol's Chipotle track record of QSR operational turnaround brings proven turnaround credibility to Starbucks' current challenges
- Drive-thru-only small format: lower buildout costs, lower real estate requirements, and drive-thru-optimized traffic create superior unit economics vs full café concepts
- Young fanatic brand culture: Dutch Bros' 'broista' energy and customer interaction model creates emotional brand loyalty among Gen Z and millennial consumers
- Long unit growth runway: 900+ locations vs Starbucks' 16,000+ US stores — Dutch Bros is still in early innings of a potential 4,000+ US unit buildout
- US comp traffic declining — Starbucks lost traffic share as prices rose and customer experience deteriorated from mobile order congestion
- China competition is intense — local coffee chains (Luckin Coffee, Manner, NOWWA) competed aggressively on price while Starbucks maintained premium positioning in a weakening consumer environment
- Turnaround execution risk — simplifying menus, reducing complexity, and retraining 350,000 employees globally while maintaining brand culture is a multi-year challenge
- Same-shop sales deceleration suggests the Dutch Bros menu and value proposition may need refreshing as the initial new-location excitement matures
- Geographic concentration in West/Sun Belt creates unproven ability to maintain AUV and brand culture in new Eastern markets
- Energy drink competition: Dutch Bros' Rebel energy drink menu competes with Monster/Red Bull at convenience stores — a different consumer context
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