CMG vs SBUX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chipotle and Starbucks both anchor the fast-casual and coffeehouse restaurant categories, but Chipotle is a consistent, high-growth compounder built on menu simplicity and unit expansion, while Starbucks is a much larger, globally established brand currently in the middle of an operational turnaround aimed at restoring same-store sales growth and margins.
Chipotle offers a proven, consistent growth compounder story at a premium valuation, while Starbucks offers potential turnaround upside from a depressed base if its operational improvement initiatives succeed. Consider whether you prefer Chipotle's established growth execution or Starbucks' turnaround and recovery potential.
CMG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SBUX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+19.74% vs -11.56%), though CMG has the better forward P/E setup (27.78x vs 34.62x for SBUX). CMG leads on both revenue growth (9.30%) and operating margin (16.11%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMG (+14.84%) than for SBUX (+4.06%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a consistent, proven fast-casual growth compounder with a long runway of new unit openings
- Value Chipotle's track record of same-store sales growth built on menu simplicity and throughput efficiency
- Believe digital ordering and loyalty program adoption will continue expanding as a high-margin sales channel
- Are comfortable paying a premium valuation for sustained, proven growth execution
- Believe Starbucks' turnaround strategy will successfully restore same-store sales growth and margins over time
- Want exposure to a globally recognized coffeehouse brand with a massive store footprint
- Are comfortable with near-term execution risk in exchange for potential recovery upside from a depressed base
- Value Starbucks' loyalty program and mobile ordering platform as assets supporting the turnaround effort
| Metric | CMG | SBUX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.5 | 42.3 |
| AI ranki | #433 | #926 |
| Latest closei | $36.96 | $104.47 |
| 1M returni | +7.13% | -1.44% |
| 6M returni | -0.27% | +5.86% |
| 1Y returni | -11.56% | +19.74% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | SBUX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.93K (-10.7%) started 2025-09-04 | $12.01K (+20.1%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $9.75K (-2.5%) started 2021-09-07 | $10.77K (+7.7%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $44.63K (+346.3%) started 2016-09-06 | $27.4K (+174.0%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | SBUX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $122.95B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 62.34 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | 34.62 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.80 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 3.70 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $112.23 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | +4.06% |
| Metric | CMG | SBUX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | -1.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | 85.70% |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | +85.70% |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | +8.00% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | 12.92% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 5.17% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.31% |
| Betai | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 0.50 |
Over the past year, CMG and SBUX have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.36), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | SBUX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.75% | +20.07% |
| CAGRi | -10.76% | +20.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.78% | 27.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.17 | 0.64 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.22 | 0.99 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.47% | 14.51% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.75% | 3.76% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.87% | 3.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.93% | 4.43% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 5.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 9.21% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -2.47% | -1.60% |
| CAGRi | -0.50% | -0.32% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.74% | 31.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.03 | 0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.04 | 0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 40.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.08% | 9.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.98% | 17.86% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.34% | 19.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 18.87% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +346.30% | +124.11% |
| CAGRi | +16.14% | +8.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.19% | 29.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.47 | 0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.69 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 43.68% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.08% | 9.27% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.51% | 14.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.71% | 17.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 16.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 21.22% |
| Category | CMG | SBUX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Starbucks Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | A fast-casual restaurant chain known for its build-your-own burrito and bowl format, using fresh ingredients and a simplified menu to drive throughput, with a long runway of new restaurant openings across North America. | A global coffeehouse chain operating company-run and licensed stores worldwide, offering coffee, food, and beverages, currently executing a turnaround strategy focused on improving store operations, throughput, and the customer experience. |
| Investor focus | Same-store sales growth trends, new restaurant unit growth pace, and digital and delivery channel mix contribution to overall sales. | Same-store sales recovery in both the US and China, turnaround strategy execution progress, and margin improvement from operational efficiency initiatives. |
- Consistent same-store sales growth track record built on menu simplicity, throughput efficiency, and brand loyalty
- Long runway of new restaurant openings supports a multi-year unit growth story beyond mature markets
- Strong digital ordering and loyalty program adoption provides a growing, high-margin sales channel
- Globally recognized brand with a massive store footprint spanning company-operated and licensed locations worldwide
- Turnaround strategy targets known operational pain points, offering a clear path to sales and margin recovery if executed well
- Loyalty program and mobile ordering platform provide a large, engaged customer base to support recovery efforts
- Premium valuation reflects high expectations for sustained same-store sales and unit growth execution
- Food and labor cost inflation can pressure margins if not offset by pricing or throughput gains
- Growth-dependent story means any slowdown in new unit openings or comp sales could weigh heavily on sentiment
- Turnaround execution carries risk, and same-store sales have shown recent softness in key markets including the US and China
- Margin recovery depends on successfully offsetting labor and input cost pressures through operational efficiency gains
- Faces competition from both fast-casual chains and other coffee retailers across its global markets
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.