AMZN vs WMT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Amazon and Walmart are the two dominant US consumer commerce companies competing across retail, grocery, advertising, and membership. Amazon leads in e-commerce and cloud computing; Walmart leads in physical grocery and everyday essentials retail. Amazon's AWS profit subsidizes retail investment; Walmart is transforming retail operations into advertising and membership revenue. They increasingly compete across grocery delivery, advertising, and membership programs.
AMZN vs WMT is the e-commerce marketplace and cloud infrastructure dual-business where AWS profits fuel retail investment and advertising creates the third major profit driver (Amazon) versus the world's largest physical retailer transforming grocery dominance into omnichannel membership and retail media advertising revenue (Walmart) — cloud-subsidized retail and tech platform vs physical store scale monetizing into digital margins.
AMZN holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AMZN leads on both 1-year return (+9.72%) and forward P/E quality (24.68x vs 31.99x for WMT), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. AMZN leads on both revenue growth (19.60%) and operating margin (13.69%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AMZN (+27.80%) than for WMT (+23.90%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the combined cloud market leader (AWS) and largest e-commerce marketplace with advertising as an accelerating third profit pillar
- value Amazon's unique AWS profitability subsiding retail expansion — other retailers don't have a cloud business funding their competitive investments
- want technology company exposure with retail scale rather than pure retail exposure — AWS makes Amazon structurally different from any other retail business
- are comfortable with AWS market share competition from Azure and Google, thin retail margins, and antitrust regulatory scrutiny globally
- prefer the world's largest retailer with grocery dominance creating daily consumer traffic and omnichannel leadership impossible to replicate from a digital-first starting point
- value Walmart's transformation from low-margin retail to higher-margin membership (Walmart+) and advertising (Walmart Connect/Vizio) revenue streams improving structural margins
- want defensive consumer staples exposure with Walmart's EDLP model and grocery strength maintaining resilience through economic cycles
- are comfortable with Amazon grocery competition, e-commerce acceleration investments needed to defend share, and international expansion complexity
| Metric | AMZN | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 62.4 | 53.1 |
| AI ranki | #122 | #354 |
| Latest closei | $253.71 | $106.73 |
| 1M returni | -4.56% | -6.62% |
| 6M returni | +21.53% | -11.86% |
| 1Y returni | +9.72% | +3.02% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMZN | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.97K (+9.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $10.3K (+3.0%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $15.12K (+51.2%) started 2021-09-20 | $24.91K (+149.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $65.47K (+554.7%) started 2016-09-19 | $61.46K (+514.6%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AMZN | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.77T | $820.4B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.66 | 37.35 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.68 | 31.99 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.49 | 1.14 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.74 | 1.21 |
| Analyst targeti | $328.17 | $127.73 |
| Target upsidei | +27.80% | +23.90% |
| Metric | AMZN | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.60% | 5.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 242.30% | -9.10% |
| EPS growthi | +242.30% | -9.10% |
| FCF margini | +0.42% | +1.22% |
| Operating margini | 13.69% | 4.99% |
| Profit margini | 17.44% | 3.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | 30.56% | 22.31% |
| Return on equityi | 30.56% | 22.31% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.96% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 34.96% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.44 | 0.60 |
| Debt/equityi | 45.62 | 70.38 |
| Current ratioi | 1.03 | 0.77 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.84 | 0.20 |
Over the past year, AMZN and WMT have moved barely in opposite directions (correlation of -0.08), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AMZN | WMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +9.72% | +3.02% |
| CAGRi | +9.73% | +3.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.38% | 25.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.31 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.50 | 0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.74% | 23.52% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.67% | 20.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.77% | 7.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.44% | 10.12% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.55% | 9.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.09% | 11.67% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +51.21% | +136.25% |
| CAGRi | +8.63% | +18.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.46% | 22.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.73% | 25.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.67% | 20.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.17% | 6.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.56% | 8.90% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.05% | 11.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.35% | 19.49% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +554.65% | +419.29% |
| CAGRi | +20.68% | +17.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.12% | 22.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.88 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.15% | 25.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 10.67% | 20.47% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.88% | 6.28% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.19% | 8.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.05% | 11.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.35% | 19.49% |
| Category | AMZN | WMT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Amazon.com, Inc. | Walmart Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Internet Retail | Discount Stores |
| Core business | Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace and the world's largest cloud computing platform (AWS). Amazon's retail business sells directly and through marketplace third-party sellers. AWS provides cloud infrastructure services to enterprises, startups, and governments. Amazon's advertising business (serving ads on Amazon's properties) is one of the fastest-growing major ad platforms. Amazon also operates Prime membership, Whole Foods, Alexa, and Kuiper satellite internet. AWS generates the majority of Amazon's operating profit despite being a smaller share of total revenue. | Walmart is the world's largest retailer by revenue, operating 10,500+ stores globally under Walmart, Sam's Club, and international banners. Walmart's US stores serve 90% of Americans weekly through its low-price everyday model (EDLP — Everyday Low Prices). Walmart has aggressively expanded omnichannel — grocery pickup and delivery, Walmart+membership, and Flipkart (India e-commerce). Walmart's advertising business (Walmart Connect) is growing rapidly as it monetizes retail media from its massive store and digital traffic. Walmart acquired Vizio to expand its connected TV advertising. |
| Investor focus | Investors track AWS revenue growth and operating margin, advertising revenue growth, North America and International retail operating margin improvement, and Prime membership engagement. | Investors track same-store sales (comp growth), grocery market share, Walmart+ membership, advertising revenue growth, and e-commerce sales acceleration. |
- AWS is the market-leading cloud platform with 31%+ market share — the most profitable and strategically important segment in Amazon's portfolio
- Amazon advertising is the world's third-largest digital ad platform — uniquely positioned at the point of purchase intent, commanding high CPMs from brands advertising to Amazon shoppers
- Prime membership creates a flywheel locking in the most valuable consumers — Prime members spend 4x+ more than non-Prime customers and renew at high rates
- Grocery market leadership creates daily traffic — Walmart's dominant grocery position ensures weekly consumer visits that no pure e-commerce or non-food retailer can match
- Scale in procurement creates unmatched cost advantages — Walmart's buying power with suppliers compresses COGS below what competitors can match
- Walmart+ membership and retail media monetization are transforming Walmart from pure-play retail into a membership and advertising platform — improving margins structurally
- AWS faces persistent growth competition from Azure (Microsoft) and Google Cloud — both growing faster than AWS in recent periods potentially closing market share gaps
- Retail margins in North America and International are improving but still thin relative to AWS — retail scale is strategic but low-margin
- Regulatory antitrust scrutiny of Amazon's marketplace practices and AWS market power is increasing globally
- Amazon's grocery ambitions directly challenge Walmart's core strength — Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods, and delivery compete for the grocery share Walmart dominates in physical stores
- Walmart's non-grocery retail competes with Amazon marketplace — as consumers shift discretionary purchases online, Walmart must continuously invest in e-commerce to retain share
- Sam's Club competition with Costco in warehouse retail is fierce — both serve value-seeking higher-income consumers with membership models
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