SHOP vs AMZN: Shopify vs Amazon Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Shopify and Amazon serve different sides of the e-commerce ecosystem. Amazon is the marketplace where consumers shop; Shopify is the platform where independent merchants build their own stores. They are increasingly intertwined — Shopify merchants can access Amazon's Prime logistics. Shopify is a pure-play on the independent merchant economy; Amazon is a technology conglomerate where e-commerce is one of several businesses.
Use this SHOP vs AMZN comparison to understand two distinct models in e-commerce. Shopify empowers independent brands with owned distribution; Amazon provides reach and logistics for marketplace sellers. The choice is between a high-growth SaaS platform bet on merchant sovereignty and a diversified technology giant where cloud and advertising drive most of the value.
AMZN holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AMZN leads on both 1-year return (+14.39%) and forward P/E quality (25.64x vs 59.15x for SHOP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. SHOP leads on both revenue growth (33.70%) and operating margin (17.55%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AMZN (+22.99%) than for SHOP (+17.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a pure-play on the growth of independent direct-to-consumer e-commerce merchant adoption
- Value Shopify Payments and financial services as a compounding higher-margin revenue layer
- Believe merchants increasingly prefer owned channels over Amazon's marketplace dependency
- Are comfortable with a premium SaaS valuation that prices in multi-year GMV and revenue growth
- Want the world's largest cloud provider (AWS) combined with the dominant US marketplace
- Value advertising and AWS as compounding high-margin businesses diversifying beyond e-commerce
- Prefer a larger, more diversified technology company with multiple independent profit engines
- Are comfortable with higher capex intensity during the AI infrastructure investment cycle
| Metric | SHOP | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 72.7 | 62.0 |
| AI ranki | #29 | #149 |
| Latest closei | $145.09 | $258.51 |
| 1M returni | +0.59% | -5.19% |
| 6M returni | +7.64% | +18.07% |
| 1Y returni | -0.04% | +14.39% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SHOP | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10K (-0.0%) started 2025-09-04 | $10.97K (+9.7%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $9.44K (-5.6%) started 2021-09-07 | $14.73K (+47.3%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $335.93K (+3259.3%) started 2016-09-06 | $65.54K (+555.4%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SHOP | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $188.28B | $2.87T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 98.03 | 21.42 |
| Forward P/Ei | 59.15 | 25.64 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 3.49 |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.71 | 3.87 |
| Analyst targeti | $171.15 | $327.67 |
| Target upsidei | +17.96% | +22.99% |
| Metric | SHOP | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 33.70% | 19.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 68.10% | 242.30% |
| EPS growthi | +68.10% | +242.30% |
| FCF margini | +11.97% | +0.42% |
| Operating margini | 17.55% | 13.69% |
| Profit margini | 14.53% | 17.44% |
| ROIC proxyi | 15.54% | 30.56% |
| Return on equityi | 15.54% | 30.56% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.62 | 1.45 |
| Debt/equityi | 1.40 | 45.62 |
| Current ratioi | 5.35 | 1.03 |
| Quick ratioi | 3.72 | 0.84 |
Over the past year, SHOP and AMZN have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.23), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SHOP | AMZN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -0.04% | +9.69% |
| CAGRi | -0.04% | +9.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.56% | 34.34% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.21 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 46.71% | 21.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.95% | 8.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.09% | 8.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.89% | 10.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.62% | 5.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.56% | 14.09% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -5.58% | +47.33% |
| CAGRi | -1.14% | +8.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 66.50% | 36.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | 0.27 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.82% | 55.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.95% | 8.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 48.16% | 18.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.55% | 23.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.59% | 14.05% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.38% | 20.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +3259.34% | +555.39% |
| CAGRi | +42.14% | +20.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.43% | 33.11% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.22 | 0.88 | |
| Max drawdowni | 84.82% | 56.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.95% | 8.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.67% | 12.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.85% | 18.18% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.59% | 14.05% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.38% | 20.35% |
| Category | SHOP | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Shopify Inc. | Amazon.com, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Software - Application | Internet Retail |
| Core business | Commerce operating system powering over 2 million merchants globally. Revenue includes subscriptions (merchant plans), merchant solutions (payments, shipping, capital, markets), and enterprise (Shopify Plus). Shopify Payments and Shopify Capital are high-growth financial services layers. | Global technology and e-commerce company. Amazon marketplace has 200M+ Prime members. AWS is the world's largest cloud provider. Advertising is a $50B+ annual business. Fulfillment By Amazon (FBA) enables third-party merchant logistics. |
| Investor focus | GMV growth, merchant solutions revenue attach rate, Shopify Payments penetration, international expansion, and operating leverage as revenue scales. | AWS cloud growth, advertising compound revenue, North America retail margin improvement, and AI infrastructure investment returns. |
- Merchants choose Shopify over Amazon marketplace because they control their own brand, data, and customer relationships
- Shopify Payments is a high-margin financial services layer growing faster than subscriptions
- Two-sided ecosystem — merchants and buyers — creates network effects as Shopify's platform scale grows
- Unmatched e-commerce logistics infrastructure — same-day and one-day delivery capabilities most competitors cannot match
- AWS and advertising generate the majority of Amazon's operating profit and are both fast-growing
- Prime membership lock-in creates customer loyalty that drives both retail and digital media revenue
- Shopify sold its logistics business in 2023 — direct fulfilment capability is now reliant on partners vs Amazon's vertical integration
- Enterprise (Shopify Plus) competition from commercetools, Salesforce Commerce Cloud, and SAP
- Take rate expansion depends on merchants adopting Shopify financial products — not all will
- Amazon and Shopify are increasingly partners as well as competitors — Shopify merchants can use Buy With Prime
- Regulatory scrutiny of marketplace practices and FBA terms for third-party sellers
- Heavy AI capex is being closely watched — the market expects AWS AI revenue to justify the infrastructure spend
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