ABNB vs EXPE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Airbnb and Expedia are both online travel platforms, but Airbnb is an alternative accommodation specialist while Expedia is a full-service OTA. Airbnb focuses exclusively on private home and unique property rentals; Expedia covers hotels, flights, packages, and vacation rentals through Vrbo. Airbnb has superior unit economics from its marketplace model; Expedia has broader travel category coverage. They compete directly in vacation rentals (Airbnb vs Vrbo).
ABNB vs EXPE is the specialized alternative accommodation marketplace with network effects and high margins (Airbnb) versus the diversified online travel agency covering hotels, flights, and vacation rentals with broader but lower-margin travel booking (Expedia) — Airbnb's focused model generates better economics; Expedia's breadth captures more of the travel budget.
EXPE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. EXPE leads on both 1-year return (+32.54%) and forward P/E quality (13.62x vs 27.51x for ABNB), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. ABNB leads on both revenue growth (16.50%) and operating margin (21.01%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ABNB (+7.51%) than for EXPE (+2.97%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the world's largest alternative accommodation marketplace with unique supply (private homes, vacation properties) not replicable by hotel booking platforms
- value Airbnb's exceptional unit economics — asset-light marketplace with very high free cash flow margins from guest and host fees
- want travel sector exposure with differentiated inventory and a loyal customer base that returns to Airbnb for the unique experience
- are comfortable with regulatory risk from short-term rental restrictions in key markets and host supply growth dependency on homeowner economics
- prefer a comprehensive travel booking platform capturing hotels, flights, packages, and vacation rentals in a one-stop-shop model
- value Expedia's broader travel TAM across all booking categories vs Airbnb's accommodation-only focus
- want online travel agency exposure at a lower valuation than Airbnb reflecting Expedia's more capital-intensive, lower-margin OTA model
- are comfortable with Google Hotels competition, Airbnb's superior alternative accommodation position vs Vrbo, and hotel booking disintermediation risk
| Metric | ABNB | EXPE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.4 | 41.9 |
| AI ranki | #1266 | #831 |
| Latest closei | $166.96 | $285.77 |
| 1M returni | +2.79% | +7.84% |
| 3M returni | +11.37% | -8.42% |
| 6M returni | +19.49% | +14.93% |
| 1Y returni | +31.67% | +32.54% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ABNB | EXPE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.65K (+36.5%) started 2025-11-04 | $13.47K (+34.7%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $8.28K (-17.2%) started 2021-11-05 | $15.75K (+57.5%) started 2021-11-05 |
| 10Y ago | $11.54K (+15.4%) started 2020-12-10 | $24.43K (+144.3%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ABNB | EXPE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $101.91B | $39.54B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 38.95 | 20.71 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.51 | 13.62 |
| Price/Salesi | 7.73 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.90 | 2.51 |
| Analyst targeti | $182.98 | $339.23 |
| Target upsidei | +7.51% | +2.97% |
| Metric | ABNB | EXPE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 16.50% | 14.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 33.40% | 188.70% |
| EPS growthi | +33.40% | +188.70% |
| FCF margini | +24.37% | +21.87% |
| Operating margini | 21.01% | 18.98% |
| Profit margini | 20.45% | 12.97% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.54% | 89.49% |
| Return on equityi | 34.54% | 89.49% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.58% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 10.99% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.16 | 1.25 |
| Debt/equityi | 32.00 | 230.27 |
| Current ratioi | 1.41 | 0.80 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.68 | 0.64 |
Over the past year, ABNB and EXPE have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.52), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ABNB | EXPE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +36.46% | +34.71% |
| CAGRi | +36.52% | +34.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.13% | 51.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.93 | 0.76 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.50 | 1.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.48% | 37.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.36% | 15.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.56% | 14.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.42% | 17.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.56% | 15.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.70% | 15.63% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -17.19% | +57.20% |
| CAGRi | -3.70% | +9.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.98% | 46.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.03 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.04 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 60.19% | 60.86% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.42% | 15.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 35.16% | 29.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.62% | 34.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.43% | 17.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.63% | 26.90% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +15.38% | +134.82% |
| CAGRi | +2.45% | +8.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.76% | 44.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.27 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.96% | 70.51% | |
| Current drawdowni | 23.00% | 15.73% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 35.40% | 24.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.30% | 30.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.43% | 27.39% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.63% | 40.46% |
| Category | ABNB | EXPE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Airbnb, Inc. | Expedia Group, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Travel Services | Travel Services |
| Core business | Airbnb is the world's largest alternative accommodation marketplace, enabling homeowners and hosts to rent their properties to travelers. Airbnb's platform connects 7M+ active listings (private homes, apartments, unique properties, guest rooms) to 150M+ guests globally. Unlike hotels, Airbnb inventory is supply-constrained — it depends on hosts continuing to list their properties. Revenue comes from service fees charged to both guests and hosts. Airbnb has achieved strong profitability and free cash flow since going public. | Expedia Group is one of the world's largest online travel agencies (OTAs), operating Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Vrbo (vacation rentals, Airbnb competitor), Orbitz, Travelocity, and other travel booking brands. Expedia provides one-stop travel booking across hotels, flights, car rentals, vacation packages, and vacation rentals through Vrbo. Unlike Airbnb (alternative accommodations only), Expedia's hotel booking is its primary revenue driver. Expedia also owns the Expedia for Business platform serving corporate travel. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Nights and Experiences Booked, Gross Booking Value (GBV), average daily rate (ADR) trends, active listings count, and free cash flow from the highly profitable marketplace model. | Investors track total bookings (hotel + flight + package), lodging bookings, Vrbo vacation rental bookings, revenue growth, and operating margin improvement from technology investment reducing customer acquisition costs. |
- Unique inventory (private homes, treehouses, castles, beach houses) is not replicable on traditional hotel booking sites — differentiated supply creates defensible marketplace positioning
- Asset-light marketplace model: Airbnb owns no properties but earns fees from every booking — extremely high free cash flow margins for a platform at scale
- International presence across 220+ countries/regions — Airbnb's global reach exceeds most hotel chains and rivals Booking.com for international accommodation breadth
- One-stop travel booking across hotels, flights, packages, and vacation rentals is more comprehensive than Airbnb's accommodation-only focus
- Vrbo vacation rental platform competes with Airbnb's alternative accommodations in North America's family vacation rental market
- Loyalty program (One Key) spanning Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo properties increases cross-brand retention and reduces customer acquisition cost over time
- Local regulatory restrictions on short-term rentals (New York, Barcelona, Amsterdam) are reducing available listings in key markets
- Host supply growth is dependent on economic incentives for homeowners — rising interest rates and home price plateaus can reduce new host supply
- Booking Holdings (Booking.com) and Expedia (VRBO) compete directly in alternative accommodations, with Booking.com having superior European market penetration
- Google Hotels, Booking.com, and direct hotel booking are reducing OTA's role as the primary hotel booking channel for some customer segments
- Airbnb continues to take alternative accommodation market share from Vrbo in the short-term rental category
- Customer acquisition costs on Google and Meta advertising are a primary profitability driver — advertising cost increases directly compress margins
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