HLT vs H Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HLT is a larger, more capital-light, faster-growing global franchisor, while Hyatt is a smaller but more luxury- and lifestyle-skewed hotel company actively transitioning toward an asset-light model. Hyatt offers more room for percentage growth from a smaller base but carries more real estate transition risk.
HLT vs H contrasts a larger, established, capital-light hotel giant against a smaller, luxury-focused hotel company still completing its shift to an asset-light franchise model.
HLT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HLT leads on both 1-year return (+36.81%) and forward P/E quality (30.78x vs 34.11x for H), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. HLT leads on both revenue growth (2.50%) and operating margin (62.99%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for H (+18.30%) than for HLT (+9.63%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a larger, already capital-light hotel franchisor
- Value Hilton's industry-leading net unit growth track record
- Prefer broader brand and price-segment diversification
- Want concentrated exposure to luxury, lifestyle, and all-inclusive resort growth
- Believe Hyatt's asset-light transition will re-rate its valuation
- Are comfortable with a smaller-scale, higher-risk growth story
| Metric | HLT | H |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 60.8 | 47.9 |
| AI ranki | #217 | #621 |
| Latest closei | $356.93 | $184.30 |
| 1M returni | +10.35% | +13.76% |
| 3M returni | +10.84% | +4.31% |
| 6M returni | +10.14% | +9.98% |
| 1Y returni | +36.81% | +27.68% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HLT | H |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.71K (+37.1%) started 2025-10-29 | $12.83K (+28.3%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $25.19K (+151.9%) started 2021-11-01 | $21.63K (+116.3%) started 2021-10-29 |
| 10Y ago | $83.27K (+732.7%) started 2016-10-31 | $36.29K (+262.9%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HLT | H |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $72.44B | $15.64B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 47.19 | 204.89 |
| Forward P/Ei | 30.78 | 34.11 |
| Price/Salesi | 12.63 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 16.75 | 5.77 |
| Analyst targeti | $352.85 | $196.33 |
| Target upsidei | +9.63% | +18.30% |
| Metric | HLT | H |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.50% | -6.60% |
| Earnings growthi | 14.10% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +14.10% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +27.31% | +5.03% |
| Operating margini | 62.99% | 16.75% |
| Profit margini | 31.03% | 2.33% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 2.16% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 2.16% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.19% | 0.37% |
| Payout ratioi | 8.10% | 31.25% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.06 | 1.35 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 124.42 |
| Current ratioi | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.55 | 0.52 |
Over the past year, HLT and H have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.75), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HLT | H |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +37.08% | +28.29% |
| CAGRi | +37.14% | +28.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.89% | 34.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.26 | 0.77 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.98 | 1.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.61% | 23.40% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.47% | 8.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.60% | 7.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.97% | 10.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.88% | 7.09% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.34% | 10.25% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +149.19% | +116.31% |
| CAGRi | +20.07% | +16.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.84% | 34.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.96 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.65% | 37.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.47% | 8.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.76% | 10.46% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.53% | 13.07% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.09% | 9.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.16% | 17.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +700.31% | +262.87% |
| CAGRi | +23.13% | +13.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.85% | 35.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.71 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.05 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.82% | 60.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 1.47% | 8.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.17% | 12.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.95% | 16.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.57% | 18.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.10% | 40.08% |
| Category | HLT | H |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | Hyatt Hotels Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Lodging | Lodging |
| Core business | Hilton is one of the world's largest hospitality companies, franchising and managing hotels across 20-plus brands, also operating on an asset-light, fee-based model with a strong U.S. concentration. | Hyatt is a global hospitality company with a smaller but growing portfolio of brands skewed toward luxury and lifestyle hotels, increasingly pursuing an asset-light strategy through real estate sales. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Hilton's net unit growth rate, which has often outpaced peers, RevPAR trends, and the strength of its Hilton Honors loyalty program. | Investors track Hyatt's progress shifting to an asset-light fee-based model, its luxury and all-inclusive resort growth, and net unit growth relative to larger peers. |
- Industry-leading net unit growth rate among major hotel franchisors
- Highly capital-light model with strong free cash flow conversion
- Broad brand portfolio spanning luxury to economy segments
- Strong positioning in luxury, lifestyle, and all-inclusive resort segments
- Actively divesting owned real estate to shift toward a capital-light model
- Smaller scale provides more room for percentage-based growth
- Slightly more U.S.-concentrated than some global peers
- Premium valuation reflects high growth expectations
- Sensitive to global travel demand and macroeconomic cycles
- Smaller scale than Hilton and Marriott limits some competitive advantages
- Still carries more owned real estate exposure than larger asset-light peers
- Integration risk from recent acquisitions like Apple Leisure Group
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