ROST vs BURL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Ross and Burlington are both off-price retailers competing with TJ Maxx/Marshalls (TJX) in the value apparel and home goods market. Ross is the market execution leader with proven comparable sales outperformance. Burlington is the improving #3 off-price chain executing a smaller-store transformation. Both benefit from off-price's structural advantage over traditional department stores. Ross is the quality compounder; Burlington is the improvement story with store count and format upside.
ROST vs BURL is the off-price retail leader with proven merchant buying expertise, 1,900+ stores expanding toward 2,900, and recession-resilient value positioning (Ross Stores) versus the transforming off-price chain executing smaller-store format improvement to close the performance gap with Ross and TJX (Burlington) — off-price execution leader vs transformation and catch-up story.
ROST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ROST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+55.12% vs -10.48%), though BURL has the better forward P/E setup (19.16x vs 25.61x for ROST). ROST leads on both revenue growth (13.30%) and operating margin (17.62%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BURL (+39.87%) than for ROST (+18.11%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the off-price retail execution leader with decades of comparable sales outperformance and merchant buying expertise across 1,900+ stores
- value Ross's long unit growth runway from 1,900 to 2,900+ target locations providing multi-year store count compounding
- want recession-resilient consumer discretionary exposure where Ross gains share as consumers trade down from full-price retail during economic stress
- are comfortable with off-price peer competition from Burlington and TJX, merchandise availability depending on department store inventory excesses, and dd's lower-income format sensitivity
- prefer the off-price improvement story as Burlington's smaller-store format delivers better inventory productivity and customer experience — closing the gap with Ross and TJX
- value Burlington's unit growth optionality from the smaller format opening more viable real estate locations than the old large-warehouse Burlington format
- want off-price retail exposure to the transforming #3 player with potential to close the comparable sales gap to peers
- are comfortable with Burlington still operationally trailing Ross and TJX, merchandise scale requirements at 1,000+ stores, and 'coat factory' brand perception evolution
| Metric | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 55.8 | 47.2 |
| AI ranki | #258 | #666 |
| Latest closei | $226.61 | $237.12 |
| 1M returni | -3.44% | -29.74% |
| 6M returni | +7.57% | -24.00% |
| 1Y returni | +55.12% | -10.48% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.51K (+55.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $8.95K (-10.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $21.76K (+117.6%) started 2021-09-20 | $8.11K (-18.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $43.01K (+330.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $28.38K (+183.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $73.31B | $16.38B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 27.64 | 23.41 |
| Forward P/Ei | 25.61 | 19.16 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.22 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.98 | 1.77 |
| Analyst targeti | $269.94 | $364.75 |
| Target upsidei | +18.11% | +39.87% |
| Metric | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.30% | 11.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 70.50% | 95.90% |
| EPS growthi | +70.50% | +95.90% |
| FCF margini | +8.80% | +0.88% |
| Operating margini | 17.62% | 6.72% |
| Profit margini | 10.85% | 5.85% |
| ROIC proxyi | 42.63% | 41.41% |
| Return on equityi | 42.63% | 41.41% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.78% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 20.56% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.88 | 1.47 |
| Debt/equityi | 70.28 | 294.97 |
| Current ratioi | 1.61 | 1.17 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.93 | 0.38 |
Over the past year, ROST and BURL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.53), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +55.12% | -10.48% |
| CAGRi | +55.16% | -10.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.46% | 40.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.63 | -0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.75 | -0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.03% | 38.93% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.21% | 36.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.60% | 6.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.27% | 10.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.89% | 12.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.87% | 21.44% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +108.66% | -18.87% |
| CAGRi | +15.87% | -4.10% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.64% | 44.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.71 | 0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.72% | 64.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.21% | 36.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.98% | 26.53% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.71% | 31.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.47% | 14.95% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.93% | 23.34% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +293.94% | +183.84% |
| CAGRi | +14.70% | +11.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.82% | 42.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.65 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.41% | 68.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.21% | 36.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.49% | 21.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.68% | 28.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.47% | 29.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 38.97% | 38.37% |
| Category | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ross Stores, Inc. | Burlington Stores, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Apparel Retail | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | Ross Stores operates Ross Dress for Less (1,600+ stores) and dd's Discounts (300+ stores) — off-price retail chains selling brand-name apparel, shoes, home décor, and accessories at 20–60% below department store prices. Ross's merchant team negotiates opportunistic buys of excess inventory, canceled orders, and closeouts from department stores and manufacturers. Ross has maintained strong value perception and market share gains vs full-price retail. Ross is expanding its store count across the US with a long runway toward 2,900+ total locations. | Burlington Stores (formerly Burlington Coat Factory) is an off-price retailer with 1,000+ locations selling apparel, shoes, home goods, accessories, and — historically known for — coats at significantly reduced prices vs department stores. Burlington has been executing a 'smaller, better Burlington' strategy — reducing store sizes from large, cluttered warehouse formats to smaller, more curated merchandise presentations. Burlington's comparable sales and margins have been improving as the smaller-store format improves inventory productivity and customer experience. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable store sales, gross margin, and store count growth toward Ross's long-term target of 2,900+ stores. | Investors track comparable store sales vs Ross and TJX peers, gross margin improvement from the smaller-store strategy, and unit growth acceleration. |
- Recession-resilient value retail: Ross gains traffic when consumers trade down from department stores during recessions — off-price is counter-cyclical to full-price retail
- Merchant buying expertise: Ross's treasure hunt model depends on skilled buyers finding exceptional branded merchandise deals — this human capital advantage is difficult to replicate
- Store count growth runway: 1,900+ current stores vs 2,900+ long-term target provides a multi-year unit growth compounding opportunity
- Smaller store strategy is working: Burlington's 'right-sized' stores have better inventory productivity, cleaner presentation, and better customer experience than the old large-format Burlington warehouse stores
- Off-price value proposition: Burlington's improved merchandising is growing market share from department store and higher-income customers trading down
- Unit growth acceleration: Burlington has significant unit growth opportunity as the smaller store format opens more viable real estate locations
- Off-price competition: Burlington, TJ Maxx, and Marshalls all compete in the same treasure hunt off-price segment for both merchandise buys and customers
- Merchandise availability depends on department store inventory excesses — when full-price retail manages inventory better, less excess merchandise is available for off-price buyers
- dd's Discounts is a lower-income value format that faces more economic sensitivity than Ross Dress for Less
- Burlington is still catching up to Ross and TJX in comparable sales and margin performance — the gap has narrowed but peers remain operationally ahead
- Off-price retail requires disciplined buying — Burlington's merchandise team must source at sufficient scale to support 1,000+ stores with consistent inventory freshness
- Burlington's coats heritage was both strength and weakness — seasonal concentration in outerwear has been diluted through merchandise diversification but 'coat factory' perception lingers
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