BURL vs TJX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Burlington and TJX are both US off-price retailers, but TJX is the undisputed market leader with 4,900+ stores, global operations, and 10%+ operating margins. Burlington is a smaller, improving competitor with a compelling store count expansion plan and margin recovery story. Both benefit from the off-price retail secular shift as consumers seek value regardless of economic cycle.
BURL vs TJX is the off-price market leader with scale, margin superiority, and global diversification (TJX) versus the improving off-price competitor with margin recovery upside and smaller-store expansion potential (Burlington) — TJX is the quality hold, Burlington is the turnaround/growth bet.
TJX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TJX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-9.07% vs -10.48%), though BURL has the better forward P/E setup (19.16x vs 23.47x for TJX). On fundamentals, BURL is growing revenue faster (11.00%), while TJX maintains the higher operating margin (10.91%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BURL (+39.87%) than for TJX (+26.11%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a growth story in off-price retail as Burlington expands its store fleet with a smaller-format strategy
- value margin improvement upside as Burlington's buying relationships and merchandise execution close the gap with TJX
- want higher-beta off-price retail exposure with more room for comp sales and margin to improve from current levels
- are comfortable with Burlington's execution gap vs TJX and the pace of operational improvement required for margin targets
- prefer the dominant global off-price retailer with the deepest vendor buying relationships and 10%+ industry-leading margins
- value TJX's multi-banner strategy covering apparel, home goods, and international markets with consistent execution
- want a high-quality consumer discretionary compounder with durable earnings through economic cycles
- are comfortable with lower growth rates from a larger base in exchange for the most reliable off-price execution in retail
| Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 47.2 | 51.7 |
| AI ranki | #666 | #437 |
| Latest closei | $237.12 | $127.24 |
| 1M returni | -29.74% | -11.94% |
| 6M returni | -24.00% | -17.74% |
| 1Y returni | -10.48% | -9.07% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.95K (-10.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.09K (-9.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $8.11K (-18.9%) started 2021-09-20 | $20.66K (+106.6%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $28.38K (+183.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $44.05K (+340.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $16.38B | $149.27B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 23.41 | 25.02 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.16 | 23.47 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.51 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.77 | 2.55 |
| Analyst targeti | $364.75 | $170.40 |
| Target upsidei | +39.87% | +26.11% |
| Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.00% | 5.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 95.90% | 23.60% |
| EPS growthi | +95.90% | +23.60% |
| FCF margini | +0.88% | +7.05% |
| Operating margini | 6.72% | 10.91% |
| Profit margini | 5.85% | 9.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | 41.41% | 62.17% |
| Return on equityi | 41.41% | 62.17% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.43% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 32.50% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.47 | 0.62 |
| Debt/equityi | 294.97 | 134.42 |
| Current ratioi | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.38 | 0.56 |
Over the past year, BURL and TJX have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.43), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.48% | -9.07% |
| CAGRi | -10.49% | -9.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.20% | 20.66% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.19 | -0.58 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.25 | -0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.93% | 27.06% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.29% | 24.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.72% | 4.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.52% | 7.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.24% | 6.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.44% | 8.53% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -18.87% | +94.92% |
| CAGRi | -4.10% | +14.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.42% | 22.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.02 | 0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.04 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.34% | 27.68% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.29% | 24.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.53% | 5.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.75% | 8.55% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.95% | 6.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.34% | 13.72% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +183.84% | +285.91% |
| CAGRi | +11.00% | +14.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.08% | 26.19% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.52 | 0.69 | |
| Max drawdowni | 68.87% | 42.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.29% | 24.45% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.24% | 6.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.38% | 9.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 29.83% | 20.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 38.37% | 28.23% |
| Category | BURL | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Burlington Stores, Inc. | The TJX Companies, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Apparel Retail | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | Burlington Stores is an off-price retailer selling apparel, accessories, footwear, and home goods at 20–60% below department store prices. It operates 1,000+ stores across the US. Burlington's model relies on opportunistic buying of vendor overstock and manufacturer closeout merchandise, selling it at deeply discounted prices in a treasure-hunt shopping environment. Burlington is pursuing a smaller-store format strategy with more fleet locations to expand market coverage. | TJX Companies is the world's largest off-price apparel and home fashions retailer, operating T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, HomeSense, Sierra, and Winners (Canada) and T.K. Maxx (Europe). With 4,900+ stores globally, TJX has built the largest off-price buying organization in retail — its global merchandising team sources closeout, excess, and opportunistic inventory from thousands of vendors across 100+ countries. TJX generates 10%+ operating margins, significantly above Burlington. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable store sales growth, new store openings (net unit growth), gross margin improvement as merchandise mix and buying execution improve, and operating margin recovery toward TJX-level profitability. | Investors track comparable store sales growth across divisions, new store openings in US and international markets, gross margin maintenance from buying efficiency, and return on capital demonstrating the high-returns nature of the off-price model. |
- Off-price retail model is resilient through economic cycles — value-seeking consumer behavior increases during downturns
- Smaller-store format strategy allows Burlington to enter markets that its larger-format stores couldn't serve cost-effectively
- Brand name merchandise at 20–60% discount creates a compelling value proposition that fast fashion and online retailers cannot replicate
- Scale advantage in off-price buying — TJX's global merchandise team can negotiate and execute purchases that smaller off-price chains cannot match
- Multi-banner strategy (TJX, Marshalls, HomeGoods, HomeSense) allows targeting different shopper segments and merchandise categories
- 10%+ operating margins are the gold standard in off-price retail — a moat built on decades of buying relationships and execution
- Burlington's margins are below TJX's and Marshalls/HomeGoods levels — execution improvement to close the gap is the primary investment thesis
- Merchandise mix improvement requires consistent opportunistic buying relationships with vendors and brands that take time to develop
- Competition from TJX's Marshalls and HomeGoods chains, Ross Stores, and online off-price channels intensifies in favorable market conditions
- Comparable store sales can slow during periods of strong full-price retail (strong economy) when vendor excess inventory is less available
- International expansion (T.K. Maxx in Europe, HomeSense) carries currency and market-specific execution risk
- Digital commerce competition doesn't threaten TJX directly (the treasure-hunt model is inherently in-store) but ambient consumer preference for online can reduce store traffic
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