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PTON
Peloton Interactive, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$5.77
+10.33% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
NKE
Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$45.20
+6.55% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
PTON
3
NKE
1
Comparison scoreboard
PTON LEADS 3/5AI Score
PTON 23.1
NKE ✓27.7
1Y Return
PTON ✓-7.23%
NKE -24.67%
Fwd P/E
PTON ✓23.46
NKE 24.74
Target Up.
PTON ✓+40.27%
NKE +32.62%
Op. Margin
PTON N/A
NKE 6.94%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
PTON vs NKE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Peloton and Nike are both consumer brands in the fitness and athletic space, but they are at completely different points. Peloton is a post-pandemic turnaround story — it must stabilize subscribers and find a path to sustained profitability. Nike is the world's premier athletic brand with a temporary DTC transition and China headwind creating a potential recovery opportunity. Nike's brand depth and global scale are fundamentally superior to Peloton's connected fitness niche.
PTON vs NKE is the connected fitness hardware-and-content company in restructuring mode attempting to stabilize subscribers after pandemic demand collapse (Peloton) versus the world's most valuable athletic brand navigating DTC channel transition and China recovery with decades of irreplaceable brand equity (Nike) — post-pandemic turnaround speculation vs premium global brand recovery.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
PTON holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PTON leads on both 1-year return (-7.23%) and forward P/E (23.46x vs 24.74x for NKE), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PTON (+40.27%) than for NKE (+32.62%).
Normalized 1Y performance
PTON
NKE
Recent returns
PTON
NKE
Analyst price targets & sentiment
PTON · 16 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.2/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$4.00
analyst high$20.00
analyst mean$8.09
current price$5.77
+40.3% upside to analyst mean
NKE · 36 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$40.00
analyst high$120.00
analyst mean$59.58
current price$45.20
+32.6% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
PTON may suit investors who:
- →prefer speculative turnaround exposure to Peloton stabilizing subscribers and achieving free cash flow positive as restructuring progresses
- →value Peloton's instructor brand loyalty and connected fitness subscription retention among its engaged core subscriber base
- →want high-risk/high-reward exposure to a brand with genuine consumer devotion that may find the right business model to monetize its platform
- →are comfortable with declining subscriber count, path-to-profitability uncertainty, hardware demand weakness in discretionary spending environments, and high share price volatility
NKE may suit investors who:
- →prefer the world's most valuable athletic brand at a potentially discounted valuation due to temporary DTC transition and China headwinds
- →value Nike's irreplaceable brand equity spanning performance athletics, Jordan streetwear culture, and global sponsorship — cultural assets competitors cannot replicate
- →want consumer brand recovery exposure as Nike's DTC channel normalizes, China consumption recovers, and product franchise freshness initiatives revive full-price demand
- →are comfortable with DTC transition channel conflict duration, China revenue recovery uncertainty, and inventory management execution risk
Performance & AI score
| Metric | PTON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 23.1 | 27.7 |
| AI rank | #3741 | #2469 |
| Latest close | $5.77 | $45.20 |
| 1M return | +10.33% | +6.55% |
| 6M return | -5.87% | -31.19% |
| 1Y return | -7.23% | -24.67% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PTON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.28K (-7.2%) started 2025-06-18 | $7.6K (-24.0%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $528.78 (-94.7%) started 2021-06-18 | $3.84K (-61.6%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $2.24K (-77.6%) started 2019-09-26 | $10.29K (+2.9%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | PTON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $2.5B | $66.54B |
| Trailing P/E | 96.17 | 29.56 |
| Forward P/E | 23.46 | 24.74 |
| Price/Sales | 1.02 | 1.94 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| Analyst target | $8.09 | $59.58 |
| Target upside | +40.27% | +32.62% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | PTON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 1.10% | 0.10% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | -34.80% |
| EPS growth | N/A | -34.80% |
| FCF margin | +16.28% | +2.82% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 6.94% |
| Profit margin | 0.95% | 4.84% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | 16.02% |
| Return on equity | N/A | 16.02% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 3.65% |
| Beta | 2.53 | 1.12 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | 79.33 |
| Current ratio | 2.49 | 2.14 |
| Quick ratio | 2.08 | 1.24 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
PTON max drawdown58.78%
NKE max drawdown47.15%
PTON max wkly drop26.90%
NKE max wkly drop18.35%
5Y risk snapshot
PTON max drawdown97.73%
NKE max drawdown75.26%
PTON max wkly drop45.55%
NKE max wkly drop22.44%
10Y risk snapshot
PTON max drawdown98.28%
NKE max drawdown75.26%
PTON max wkly drop45.55%
NKE max wkly drop22.44%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | PTON | NKE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -7.23% | -24.05% |
| CAGR | -7.24% | -24.08% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.14 | -0.65 | |
| Max drawdown | 58.78% | 47.15% | |
| Max daily drop | 25.72% | 15.51% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.90% | 18.35% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -94.71% | -63.51% |
| CAGR | -44.46% | -18.28% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.31 | -0.51 | |
| Max drawdown | 97.73% | 75.26% | |
| Max daily drop | 35.35% | 19.98% | |
| Max wkly drop | 45.55% | 22.44% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -77.60% | -7.74% |
| CAGR | -19.94% | -0.80% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.09 | -0.00 | |
| Max drawdown | 98.28% | 75.26% | |
| Max daily drop | 35.35% | 19.98% | |
| Max wkly drop | 45.55% | 22.44% |
Business comparison
| Category | PTON | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Peloton Interactive, Inc. | Nike, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | N/A | Footwear & Accessories |
| Core business | Peloton provides connected fitness hardware (indoor bikes, treadmills) and subscription fitness content. Members pay a monthly subscription for live and on-demand instructor-led classes across cycling, running, strength, yoga, and meditation. Peloton experienced explosive growth during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) followed by severe demand collapse post-pandemic as gyms reopened. Peloton has been in restructuring mode — reducing headcount, cutting hardware prices, and pivoting toward subscription-first business while selling hardware through Amazon and other retail partners beyond its own channels. | Nike is the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company, with iconic brands including Nike, Jordan, and Converse. Nike's direct-to-consumer (DTC) transformation has shifted revenue from wholesale (Foot Locker, Dick's) toward Nike.com and Nike stores. Nike's competitive advantage comes from brand culture (Michael Jordan, LeBron, Cristiano Ronaldo), innovative footwear technology (Air, React, Flyknit, ZoomX), and global athletic sponsorship creating aspirational brand equity. Nike has faced recent headwinds from inventory glut, China recovery, and DTC transition disruption. |
| Investor focus | Investors track paid connected fitness subscribers, monthly churn rate, subscription average monthly workouts per subscriber, and the restructuring's impact on free cash flow improvement. | Investors track Nike Direct revenue growth, China revenue recovery, gross margin recovery, and new product innovation cadence (franchise freshness). |
PTON strengths
- →Peloton's instructor brand loyalty is genuine — top Peloton instructors have celebrity-level followings that drive subscriber retention and acquisition
- →Connected fitness subscription provides recurring revenue with relatively high switching costs — members who use Peloton frequently don't want to lose their workout history and instructor connections
- →Peloton's app-only subscription allows non-hardware owners to access content, expanding the addressable market beyond bike owners
NKE strengths
- →World's most valuable athletic brand — Nike's brand equity spanning performance sport, streetwear, and fashion culture is irreplaceable and decades in the making
- →Jordan Brand is the most profitable athletic sub-brand globally — sustained premium pricing and cultural relevance across multiple generations
- →DTC shift (Nike.com + stores) improves margins vs wholesale — direct sales capture full retail margins rather than wholesale economics
Risks to watch — PTON
- →Peloton's subscriber count has been declining — post-pandemic churn has reduced the subscriber base from its 2022 peak
- →Hardware demand is highly discretionary and expensive — $1,500+ bikes face significant headwinds in a recessionary environment vs $50/month gym memberships
- →Peloton's path to sustained profitability requires either growing subscribers again or drastically reducing cost structure — neither has been clearly achieved
Risks to watch — NKE
- →DTC transition created channel conflict with wholesale partners who reduced Nike floor space, causing near-term revenue disruption
- →China economic slowdown hurt Nike's China revenue disproportionately as Chinese consumers shifted to local athletic brands (Anta, Li-Ning)
- →Nike's product freshness cycle is critical — over-distributing franchise shoes (Air Force 1, Dunk) reduces their desirability and full-price sell-through
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