What happened to Peloton after the COVID boom?

COVID demand surge (2020-2021): Peloton experienced extraordinary demand during COVID lockdowns — gyms closed globally; people needed home exercise options; Peloton's combination of high-quality connected bikes ($2,500-4,000) with live-class streaming at $44/month met this need perfectly; Peloton's production couldn't keep pace with demand (wait times of 6-12 weeks for bike delivery); Peloton invested heavily in manufacturing capacity expansion (acquired Precor manufacturing facilities) to meet demand; Peloton's revenue grew from $1.5B (FY2020) to $4B (FY2021). Post-COVID collapse (2021-2023): gyms reopened as vaccines became available; home fitness demand normalized sharply; Peloton had massively overinvested in manufacturing capacity based on extrapolating COVID demand; inventory built up as demand fell; Peloton wrote down hundreds of millions in inventory; product safety recalls (the Tread+ treadmill was associated with multiple injuries and one child death) required product withdrawal and safety retrofits; CEO John Foley resigned; activist investors pushed for leadership changes; Peloton's stock fell from $170+ (January 2021) to approximately $8-12 (2022-2023) — a 90%+ decline from peak. Restructuring: Barry McCarthy (former CFO of Netflix and Spotify) took over as CEO; Peloton outsourced manufacturing (divesting owned manufacturing and using Taiwanese OEM manufacturers); reduced headcount by 70%+; closed retail showrooms; focused on preserving subscriptions and reducing cash burn; explored strategic alternatives including potential sale to Amazon, Nike, or other acquirers; ultimately continued as an independent, smaller, more focused company. Restructuring success metrics: investors evaluate whether Peloton's reduced cost structure can be supported by stable subscription revenue without continued hardware sales; maintaining 2.5-3M paying subscribers at $44/month ($1.3B+ annualized) at lower operating costs is Peloton's path to sustainable profitability.

What is connected fitness and how does Peloton's subscription model work?

Connected fitness definition: connected fitness refers to fitness equipment (bikes, treadmills, rowing machines, strength machines) that are internet-connected and integrated with a digital content platform; users access live and on-demand workout classes through a touchscreen mounted on the equipment; performance data (speed, resistance, power output, cadence) is tracked and displayed; leaderboards allow users to compete with others taking the same class; social features allow following friends and comparing metrics; the digital integration transforms standalone equipment into a social fitness experience. Peloton's subscription structure: Peloton sells hardware (Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, Row) and charges a monthly subscription ($44/month for All-Access Membership) for access to its class library; the All-Access Membership includes unlimited members of the household using the classes; without an active membership, the hardware becomes a basic exercise machine without the connected class content; the subscription model creates recurring revenue independent of hardware sales. Peloton App: Peloton also offers a standalone app subscription ($12.99/month) without requiring Peloton hardware; app subscribers can use Peloton classes with non-Peloton equipment (running outside, using gym equipment) or with compatible third-party equipment; the app expands Peloton's potential subscriber base significantly beyond hardware owners but monetizes at a much lower price ($12.99 vs $44/month for hardware-only subscribers). Churn dynamics: Peloton's subscriber churn rate is critical — the percentage of subscribers who cancel each month; COVID cohort subscribers (people who bought during 2020-2021) are at higher churn risk as gyms fully reopened; maintaining low churn requires fresh content, new instructor additions, live class variety, and hardware value-add features; Peloton's management team focuses intensely on engagement metrics (classes taken per week per subscriber) as a leading indicator of future churn.

How do DTC (direct-to-consumer) brand economics compare between FIGS and traditional retail brands?

Traditional retail brand economics: brands selling through wholesale channels (department stores, sporting goods stores, clothing retailers) collect wholesale prices from retailers (typically 40-60% of the retail price); a scrub set that retails for $100 generates $45-55 in wholesale revenue for the brand; the retailer captures $45-55 in gross margin from the retail price; the brand earns profit on the $45-55 wholesale revenue minus the cost of goods (fabric, manufacturing); the brand relies on the retailer for customer acquisition, display, and sales. DTC brand economics: FIGS sells directly to customers at full retail price online; a scrub set that retails for $50 generates $50 in FIGS revenue; FIGS's gross margin is $50 minus cost of goods (manufacturing, shipping, returns); no wholesale discount to a retailer; however, FIGS must pay for its own customer acquisition (digital advertising, influencer marketing, social media), fulfillment (warehousing, shipping to individual customers), and customer service; these costs replace the retailer's margin. DTC advantages: higher gross margins per unit; direct customer relationship (FIGS owns the customer data and relationship rather than the retailer owning the customer); ability to collect feedback and iterate quickly; brand control (no retailer can discount or misrepresent the product). DTC challenges: customer acquisition costs (CAC) can be very high (Meta, Google advertising is expensive); fulfillment infrastructure required; no physical store for customer discovery (offset by healthcare professional community word-of-mouth for FIGS); DTC economics work best when customers repeat purchase frequently (amortizing the CAC over multiple purchases) — FIGS's functional repeat purchase model is DTC-favorable.

brimindinvest.com / compare / figs-vs-ptonLIVE

FIGS

FIGS, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary - DTC Medical Apparel Brand

$12.31

+7.23% this month

VERSUS

⟷

COMPARE

PTON

Peloton Interactive, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary - Connected Fitness Equipment and Subscriptions

$5.77

+10.33% this month

Scoreboard verdict

Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin

FIGS

3

PTON

1

FIGS LEADS 3/5

Comparison scoreboard

FIGS LEADS 3/5

AI Score

FIGS ✓24.3

PTON 23.1

1Y Return

FIGS ✓+134.48%

PTON -7.23%

Fwd P/E

FIGS 38.32

PTON ✓23.46

Target Up.

FIGS ✓+43.18%

PTON +40.27%

Op. Margin

FIGS N/A

PTON N/A

Metrics last refreshed: 6/22/2026

Quick take

FIGS vs PTON Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

FIGS (FIGS Inc.) and PTON (Peloton Interactive) are both post-COVID DTC consumer brands facing different recovery trajectories — FIGS serves a defensible healthcare professional customer base with growing repeat purchases of premium functional scrubs in a secular healthcare employment growth market, while Peloton is restructuring around its Connected Fitness Subscription base after the COVID hardware demand surge and subsequent severe normalization.

FIGS vs PTON is premium DTC medical apparel with loyal healthcare professional repeat purchasers (FIGS's scrubs functional necessity, growing healthcare sector employment, and community engagement — affordable alternative competition and post-COVID healthcare professional spending normalization) versus connected fitness subscription business with COVID demand normalization challenges (Peloton's 3M subscriber base, instructor community brand strength, and content platform optionality — subscriber churn risk, competitive fitness streaming content market, and balance sheet restructuring).

Live analysis · updated 6/22/2026

FIGS holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FIGS has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+134.48% vs -7.23%), though PTON trades at the lower forward P/E (23.46x vs 38.32x). Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +43.18% for FIGS and +40.27% for PTON.

Normalized 1Y performance

FIGS

PTON

Recent returns

FIGS

PTON

Analyst price targets & sentiment

FIGS · 8 analysts

Price target range

analyst low$14.00
analyst high$22.00
analyst mean$17.63
current price$12.31

+43.2% upside to analyst mean

PTON · 16 analysts

STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL

Buy (2.2/5.0)

Price target range

analyst low$4.00
analyst high$20.00
analyst mean$8.09
current price$5.77

+40.3% upside to analyst mean

Who should consider this stock?

FIGS may suit investors who:

→Want DTC consumer brand exposure through healthcare professional scrubs — a functional workplace necessity with secular healthcare employment tailwinds and strong repeat purchase dynamics from a growing loyal customer base
→Value FIGS's community and brand positioning among nurses and healthcare professionals as creating genuine brand affinity that premium pricing and repeat purchasing behavior reflect
→Believe FIGS's path to profitability through revenue scale is more visible than Peloton's given the necessity-driven repeat purchase pattern vs. discretionary fitness equipment and subscription dynamics

PTON may suit investors who:

→Want turnaround exposure to Peloton's restructuring toward preserving its Connected Fitness Subscription base at 3M subscribers — a recurring revenue stream from existing installed base that does not require new hardware sales
→Believe Peloton's brand strength, instructor celebrity culture, and community engagement are durable competitive advantages that can sustain subscription retention through cost-cutting and product innovation
→Accept high speculative risk for the potential upside if Peloton successfully transforms from a hardware manufacturer to a fitness content platform that monetizes beyond its existing hardware owners through app-only subscriptions and content licensing

Performance & AI score

Metric	FIGS	PTON
AI score	24.3	23.1
AI rank	#3181	#3741
Latest close	$12.31	$5.77
1M return	+7.23%	+10.33%
6M return	+7.79%	-5.87%
1Y return	+134.48%	-7.23%

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)

How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?

Period	FIGS	PTON
1Y ago	$23.45K (+134.5%) started 2025-06-18	$9.28K (-7.2%) started 2025-06-18
5Y ago	$3.38K (-66.2%) started 2021-06-18	$528.78 (-94.7%) started 2021-06-18
10Y ago	$4.1K (-59.0%) started 2021-05-27	$2.24K (-77.6%) started 2019-09-26

Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Valuation & upside potential

Metric	FIGS	PTON
Market cap	$2.06B	$2.5B
Trailing P/E	55.95	96.17
Forward P/E	38.32	23.46
Price/Sales	3.09	1.02
EV/Revenue	2.76	1.27
Analyst target	$17.63	$8.09
Target upside	+43.18%	+40.27%

Growth, profitability & risk

Metric	FIGS	PTON
Revenue growth	28.00%	1.10%
Earnings growth	N/A	N/A
EPS growth	N/A	N/A
FCF margin	+4.34%	+16.28%
Operating margin	N/A	N/A
Profit margin	6.10%	0.95%
ROIC proxy	10.01%	N/A
Return on equity	10.01%	N/A
Dividend yield	0.00%	0.00%
Beta	0.99	2.53
Debt/equity	14.07	N/A
Current ratio	5.39	2.49
Quick ratio	3.52	2.08

Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

1Y risk snapshot

FIGS max drawdown34.11%

PTON max drawdown58.78%

FIGS max wkly drop24.48%

PTON max wkly drop26.90%

5Y risk snapshot

FIGS max drawdown92.77%

PTON max drawdown97.73%

FIGS max wkly drop31.92%

PTON max wkly drop45.55%

10Y risk snapshot

FIGS max drawdown92.77%

PTON max drawdown98.28%

FIGS max wkly drop31.92%

PTON max wkly drop45.55%

Performance metrics by period

Period	Metric	FIGS	PTON
1Y	Growth	+134.48%	-7.23%
	CAGR	+134.61%	-7.24%
	Sharpe ratio	1.62	0.14
	Max drawdown	34.11%	58.78%
	Max daily drop	24.33%	25.72%
	Max wkly drop	24.48%	26.90%
5Y	Growth	-66.18%	-94.71%
	CAGR	-19.50%	-44.46%
	Sharpe ratio	-0.02	-0.31
	Max drawdown	92.77%	97.73%
	Max daily drop	28.34%	35.35%
	Max wkly drop	31.92%	45.55%
10Y	Growth	-58.99%	-77.60%
	CAGR	-16.15%	-19.94%
	Sharpe ratio	0.04	0.09
	Max drawdown	92.77%	98.28%
	Max daily drop	28.34%	35.35%
	Max wkly drop	31.92%	45.55%

Business comparison

Category	FIGS	PTON
Company	FIGS, Inc.	Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Sector	Consumer Discretionary - DTC Medical Apparel Brand	Consumer Discretionary - Connected Fitness Equipment and Subscriptions
Industry	N/A	N/A
Core business	FIGS is a direct-to-consumer (DTC) premium medical apparel company selling scrubs (the colored uniforms worn by nurses, physicians, surgeons, and other healthcare professionals), lab coats, underscrubs, footwear, and healthcare professional lifestyle products. FIGS disrupted the traditional medical scrub market (previously dominated by low-quality, uncomfortable hospital-provided or retail scrubs) with high-performance fabrics (anti-wrinkle, moisture-wicking, with antimicrobial properties), modern athletic-inspired designs, and a direct online sales model. FIGS has cultivated a highly engaged community of healthcare professional customers (predominantly nurses, nurse practitioners, and physicians) with strong repeat purchase rates and average order values.	Peloton manufactures and sells connected fitness equipment (exercise bikes and treadmills) and provides a subscription fitness content platform (live and on-demand cycling, running, strength, yoga, and wellness classes led by celebrity instructors). Peloton's subscription model generates recurring monthly revenue ($44/month for all-access membership) from its installed base of hardware owners. Peloton experienced explosive COVID-era growth (millions of people stuck at home bought Peloton bikes for home workouts) followed by severe demand normalization as gyms reopened, supply chain issues, product safety recalls (treadmill deaths), and corporate governance/leadership issues. Peloton has significantly reduced its hardware business, outsourced manufacturing, and focused on preserving its subscription revenue base while cutting costs aggressively.
Investor focus	Investors track FIGS's net revenue growth, active customer count, average order value (AOV), and return-to-revenue rate (what percentage of customers repeat purchase), along with EBITDA margin trajectory toward profitability.	Investors track Peloton's Connected Fitness Subscriptions count (the installed base paying monthly fees), Average Net Monthly Churn (subscription cancellation rate), Average Revenue per Subscription, and free cash flow trajectory as the company restructures toward profitability.

FIGS strengths

→Loyal repeat-purchase healthcare professional customer base creates predictable recurring revenue — healthcare professionals purchase scrubs multiple times per year (scrubs wear out, professionals rotate 5-10 sets); FIGS's high-quality products generate strong customer loyalty; net revenue per active customer tends to grow over time as professionals build their FIGS wardrobe
→Premium brand in a functional, workplace-required product category reduces discretionary spending risk — nurses and physicians must wear scrubs; FIGS addresses a genuine functional need (not optional athleisure); while customers can choose lower-cost alternatives, FIGS's comfort and quality justify the premium for a product worn 12-hour shifts multiple days per week
→Healthcare employment is a secular growth market — U.S. healthcare sector employment is growing as an aging population increases healthcare demand; more healthcare professionals = more potential FIGS customers; healthcare employment is also more recession-resistant than many consumer discretionary sectors

PTON strengths

→Connected Fitness Subscription business provides recurring revenue from installed base — even as hardware sales decline, Peloton's 2.8-3M connected fitness subscribers continue paying $44/month ($1.5B annualized); this subscription revenue base is the primary value driver
→Brand awareness and community engagement remain strong among loyal Peloton users — Peloton's instructor celebrity culture, competitive leaderboard features, and class community have created genuinely passionate brand advocates; Peloton's Net Promoter Score among active users is high
→Software/content business optionality could extend Peloton onto other brands' equipment — Peloton's app (available without Peloton hardware) expands potential subscribers beyond hardware owners; licensing Peloton content to hotel chains, corporate wellness programs, and potentially other fitness equipment brands could expand the addressable market

Risks to watch — FIGS

→Premium DTC scrubs face competition from affordable alternatives (Amazon, Walmart, specialty retailers) that may erode FIGS's market share among cost-sensitive healthcare professionals
→Post-COVID healthcare professional burnout and staffing shortages reduce spending on non-essential items — healthcare professionals facing burnout and staffing challenges may reduce spending on premium scrubs
→International expansion challenges — FIGS has expanded internationally (UK, Australia) but healthcare professional scrub preferences and sizing norms vary by market; international growth may require more localization than expected

Risks to watch — PTON

→Subscriber churn risk remains elevated as COVID cohorts' engagement normalizes — subscribers who bought Peloton bikes in 2020-2021 may have bought primarily for COVID lockdown exercise needs; as gym access normalizes, some subscribers may cancel; retaining this cohort through varied content and new hardware features is critical
→Competitive environment for home fitness content has intensified — Apple Fitness+, Lululemon (Mirror acquisition), iFIT (NordicTrack), and many other streaming fitness platforms compete for the same subscription audience; Peloton's instructor talent and community differentiation must be sustained against well-funded competitors
→Hardware margin losses and balance sheet weakness — Peloton's hardware business generates minimal or negative contribution margins; the company has needed multiple rounds of financing and restructuring; financial stability depends on subscription revenue supporting the overall business

Frequently asked questions

Traditional scrubs market: before FIGS, the medical scrub market was dominated by low-quality, uncomfortable uniforms purchased through hospital uniform stores, online medical uniform retailers (Cherokee, Dickies, Barco), or provided by hospitals in basic cuts and colors; scrubs were functional but rarely comfortable or stylish; healthcare professionals had limited brand choice and low expectations for scrub quality. FIGS's innovation: co-founders Heather Hasson and Trina Spear identified that healthcare professionals (nurses, physicians, PAs) spent 12-hour shifts in uncomfortable, unflattering scrubs while having the same preference for quality athletic apparel (Lululemon, Nike) that other consumers did; FIGS developed technical fabrics for scrubs (moisture-wicking, anti-wrinkle, four-way stretch, antimicrobial) similar to premium athletic wear; FIGS offered modern athletic-inspired cuts (jogger-style pants, fitted tops) instead of boxy traditional scrubs; FIGS sold direct-to-consumer online with premium photography, marketing, and healthcare professional community engagement. Community building: FIGS cultivated a community of 'awesome humans' (their term for healthcare professionals) through social media, healthcare influencer partnerships, and charitable giving (donating scrubs to healthcare workers in need); this community engagement transformed FIGS from a product brand to an identity brand for healthcare professionals who identify as FIGS customers. Repeat purchase engine: a nurse who discovers FIGS scrubs through a colleague's recommendation, tries a set, and finds them vastly more comfortable than alternatives will typically build a FIGS wardrobe over time; healthcare professionals need multiple sets (5-10 sets for a full week of shifts) and replace them 1-3x per year as they wear out; once FIGS converts a customer, the repeat purchase pattern is very predictable.

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