NCLH vs RCL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RCL is the larger, better-capitalized, premium-positioned operator with stronger margins and faster deleveraging, while NCLH is the smallest of the major cruise operators, carrying proportionally higher leverage but offering differentiated upscale brand exposure through Oceania and Regent Seven Seas.
NCLH vs RCL contrasts the smallest major cruise operator, which carries higher relative leverage, against the larger, premium-positioned Royal Caribbean with a stronger balance sheet recovery.
RCL holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RCL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+11.94% vs -19.98%), though NCLH has the better forward P/E setup (9.81x vs 13.77x for RCL). RCL leads on both revenue growth (6.50%) and operating margin (27.07%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +24.20% for NCLH and +24.16% for RCL.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to differentiated upscale cruise brands like Regent Seven Seas
- See turnaround upside given Norwegian's lower valuation and higher leverage
- Can tolerate greater earnings sensitivity to demand shifts
- Want exposure to the cruise industry's premium, better-capitalized operator
- Value a faster deleveraging trajectory and stronger margins
- Prefer relatively lower financial leverage risk among cruise stocks
| Metric | NCLH | RCL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 26.5 | 53.4 |
| AI ranki | #2508 | #353 |
| Latest closei | $17.94 | $321.07 |
| 1M returni | +18.49% | +15.60% |
| 3M returni | -9.21% | -0.90% |
| 6M returni | +4.30% | +23.74% |
| 1Y returni | -19.98% | +11.94% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NCLH | RCL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.09K (-19.1%) started 2025-11-03 | $11.56K (+15.6%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $6.57K (-34.3%) started 2021-11-03 | $36.35K (+263.5%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $4.82K (-51.8%) started 2016-11-03 | $50.86K (+408.6%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NCLH | RCL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $7.65B | $74.73B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 10.09 | 17.27 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.81 | 13.77 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 4.48 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.31 | 5.22 |
| Analyst targeti | $20.68 | $346.92 |
| Target upsidei | +24.20% | +24.16% |
| Metric | NCLH | RCL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.90% | 6.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 616.30% | -4.60% |
| EPS growthi | +616.30% | -4.60% |
| FCF margini | -16.55% | -8.12% |
| Operating margini | 14.04% | 27.07% |
| Profit margini | 7.49% | 23.54% |
| ROIC proxyi | 36.73% | 44.67% |
| Return on equityi | 36.73% | 44.67% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.76% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 32.54% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.90 | 1.78 |
| Debt/equityi | 621.05 | 224.82 |
| Current ratioi | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.08 | 0.11 |
Over the past year, NCLH and RCL have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.75), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NCLH | RCL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -19.12% | +15.58% |
| CAGRi | -19.17% | +15.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.19% | 47.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.18 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.27 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.57% | 33.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 28.30% | 7.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.10% | 14.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.07% | 16.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.28% | 7.35% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.12% | 12.19% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -34.33% | +260.58% |
| CAGRi | -8.07% | +29.25% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.75% | 48.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.06 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.09 | 1.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.11% | 67.64% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.29% | 12.24% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 35.33% | 19.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.84% | 25.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.04% | 13.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.02% | 30.40% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -51.79% | +361.89% |
| CAGRi | -7.04% | +16.54% | |
| Volatilityi | 62.27% | 53.33% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.12 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.18 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.25% | 83.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 70.56% | 12.24% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 48.73% | 24.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 56.30% | 32.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 35.80% | 31.78% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 66.25% | 53.98% |
| Category | NCLH | RCL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | Royal Caribbean Group |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Travel Services | Travel Services |
| Core business | Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings operates Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas, the smallest of the three major global cruise operators, with a mix of mainstream and upscale brands. | Royal Caribbean Group operates Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea, known for innovative, large, amenity-rich ships and a premium-to-mainstream brand positioning. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Norwegian's deleveraging progress, occupancy and net yield trends, and recovery in its premium Oceania and Regent brands. | Investors track booking trends, onboard spending per passenger, occupancy rates, and Royal Caribbean's deleveraging progress following pandemic-era debt buildup. |
- Differentiated upscale brands in Oceania and Regent Seven Seas
- Smaller scale allows for more flexible capacity and itinerary management
- Improving booking trends and yield recovery post-pandemic
- Premium brand positioning with industry-leading ship innovation
- Strong booking momentum and pricing power post-pandemic recovery
- Diversified brand portfolio spanning mainstream to luxury segments
- Smallest scale among the big three cruise operators limits some cost advantages
- Carries significant debt from pandemic-era borrowing relative to its size
- Higher financial leverage creates more earnings sensitivity to demand shifts
- Still working through elevated debt levels taken on during the pandemic
- Fuel cost volatility directly affects operating margins
- Highly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending cycles
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