Why did Peloton survive while Nautilus failed?

Peloton's subscription model was a key differentiator — even as hardware sales plummeted, Peloton continued generating recurring subscription revenue from its installed member base. This subscription revenue provided cash flow to fund restructuring while hardware revenue recovered. Nautilus lacked a comparable subscription model with recurring revenue — its business was almost entirely hardware sales, which left it with no revenue cushion when demand normalized.

What happened to the Bowflex and Schwinn brands?

Nautilus sold its Bowflex and Nautilus brands to Bending Branches LP and its Schwinn brand in a separate transaction in 2023 after the company struggled with excess inventory, rising logistics costs, and declining consumer demand for home fitness equipment. The brand sales generated cash but Nautilus as a public company retained minimal operating assets. The brands continue to exist under new ownership.

What is churn rate and why is it critical for Peloton?

Churn rate is the percentage of subscribers who cancel their subscription in a given period. For Peloton, monthly churn rate is a critical metric — at Peloton's scale of millions of connected fitness subscribers, even a 1% monthly churn means tens of thousands of subscribers leaving per month. Low churn (Peloton historically runs below 1.5% monthly) means the subscription base is stable; elevated churn means Peloton must acquire new subscribers just to maintain its total count, which is expensive.

Data as of: September 20, 2026

brimindinvest.com / compare / fwaa-vs-ptonLIVE

PTON

Peloton Interactive, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary - Connected Fitness

$4.97

-9.14% this month

VERSUS

COMPARE

NLS

Nautilus, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary - Fitness Equipment

N/A

N/A this month

Comparison scoreboard

MIXED SETUP

AI Scorei

PTON 23.8

NLS N/A

1Y Returni

PTON -37.33%

NLS N/A

Fwd P/Ei

PTON 23.17

NLS N/A

Target Up.i

PTON +50.09%

NLS N/A

Op. Margini

PTON 14.43%

NLS N/A

Metrics last refreshed: 9/20/2026

Quick take

PTON vs NLS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

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PTON (Peloton Interactive) is a connected fitness subscription platform facing ongoing restructuring after the post-COVID demand collapse, while NLS (Nautilus) effectively ceased operations after selling its Bowflex, Nautilus, and Schwinn brands in 2023. This comparison illustrates the divergent survival outcomes within the at-home fitness equipment industry after the COVID-era demand boom collapsed.

PTON vs NLS is connected fitness subscription model survival versus at-home fitness equipment brand failure — Peloton's recurring subscription base provided enough resilience to survive post-COVID restructuring while Nautilus lacked a subscription model to sustain it through the demand correction.

Live analysis · updated 9/20/2026

PTON and NLS are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.

Normalized 1Y performance

PTON

NLS

Not enough data to chart yet.

Recent returns

PTON

NLS

Analyst price targets & sentiment

Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.

PTON

Price target range

analyst mean$8.00
current price$4.97

+50.1% upside to analyst mean

NLS

Price target data unavailable

N/A

Who should consider this stock?

PTON may suit investors who:

Want turnaround exposure to Peloton's subscription fitness platform with a large installed member base and ongoing content and hardware business
Value Peloton's brand and community loyalty as a durable asset that may support a sustainable business once restructuring is complete
See Peloton's subscription revenue as a stabilizing cash flow stream through hardware cycle volatility

Nautilus is no longer an operating company:

Nautilus sold its Nautilus, Bowflex, and Schwinn brands in 2023 and effectively ceased operations as a fitness equipment company
NLS shares do not represent a meaningful ongoing business and trading is speculative in nature
For fitness equipment company exposure, Peloton (PTON) or iFIT Health & Fitness are the remaining public fitness equipment companies

Performance & AI score

Performance & AI score
Metric	PTON	NLS
AI scorei	23.8	N/A
AI ranki	#3544	N/A
Latest closei	$4.97	N/A
1M returni	-9.14%	N/A
6M returni	+29.43%	N/A
1Y returni	-37.33%	N/A

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)

How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
Period	PTON	NLS
1Y ago	$6.27K (-37.3%) started 2025-09-18	N/A
5Y ago	$493.4 (-95.1%) started 2021-09-20	N/A
10Y ago	$1.93K (-80.7%) started 2019-09-26	N/A

Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Valuation & upside potential

Valuation & upside potential
Metric	PTON	NLS
Market capi	$2.34B	N/A
Trailing P/Ei	38.07	N/A
Forward P/Ei	23.17	N/A
Price/Salesi	N/A	0.10
EV/Revenuei	1.12	N/A
Analyst targeti	$8.00	N/A
Target upsidei	+50.09%	N/A

Growth, profitability & risk

Growth, profitability & risk
Metric	PTON	NLS
Revenue growthi	0.10%	N/A
Earnings growthi	160.60%	N/A
EPS growthi	+160.60%	N/A
FCF margini	+14.47%	N/A
Operating margini	14.43%	N/A
Profit margini	2.58%	N/A
ROIC proxyi	N/A	N/A
Return on equityi	N/A	N/A
Dividend yieldi	N/A	N/A
Payout ratioi	0.00%	N/A
Dividend growth streaki	N/A	N/A
Betai	2.55	1.34
Debt/equityi	N/A	N/A
Current ratioi	2.84	N/A
Quick ratioi	2.46	N/A

Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

1Y risk snapshot

PTON max drawdowni58.78%

NLS max drawdowniN/A

PTON max wkly dropi26.90%

NLS max wkly dropiN/A

5Y risk snapshot

PTON max drawdowni97.15%

NLS max drawdowniN/A

PTON max wkly dropi45.55%

NLS max wkly dropiN/A

10Y risk snapshot

PTON max drawdowni98.28%

NLS max drawdowniN/A

PTON max wkly dropi45.55%

NLS max wkly dropiN/A

Performance metrics by period

Performance metrics by period
Period	Metric	PTON	NLS
1Y	Growthi	-37.33%	N/A
	CAGRi	-37.35%	N/A
	Volatilityi	60.83%	N/A
	Sharpe ratioi	-0.53	N/A
	Sortino ratioi	-0.68	N/A
	Max drawdowni	58.78%	N/A
	Current drawdowni	44.78%	N/A
	Avg drawdowni	34.67%	N/A
	Ulcer Indexi	37.22%	N/A
	Max daily dropi	25.72%	N/A
	Max wkly dropi	26.90%	N/A
5Y	Growthi	-95.07%	N/A
	CAGRi	-45.26%	N/A
	Volatilityi	86.04%	N/A
	Sharpe ratioi	-0.32	N/A
	Sortino ratioi	-0.47	N/A
	Max drawdowni	97.15%	N/A
	Current drawdowni	95.08%	N/A
	Avg drawdowni	88.27%	N/A
	Ulcer Indexi	89.59%	N/A
	Max daily dropi	35.35%	N/A
	Max wkly dropi	45.55%	N/A
10Y	Growthi	-80.71%	N/A
	CAGRi	-21.00%	N/A
	Volatilityi	82.00%	N/A
	Sharpe ratioi	0.07	N/A
	Sortino ratioi	0.10	N/A
	Max drawdowni	98.28%	N/A
	Current drawdowni	97.03%	N/A
	Avg drawdowni	71.64%	N/A
	Ulcer Indexi	79.91%	N/A
	Max daily dropi	35.35%	N/A
	Max wkly dropi	45.55%	N/A

AI Prediction Signali

Members only

Next 5 trading days

PTON

+2.8%BUY

NLS

+1.1%HOLD

Next 30 trading days

PTON

+6.4%BUY

NLS

+3.2%HOLD

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Business comparison

Business comparison
Category	PTON	NLS
Company	Peloton Interactive, Inc.	Nautilus, Inc.
Sector	Consumer Cyclical	Consumer Discretionary - Fitness Equipment
Industry	Leisure	N/A
Core business	Peloton is a connected fitness company offering premium exercise bikes and treadmills paired with a subscription streaming service delivering live and on-demand fitness classes — generating recurring subscription revenue from its installed member base regardless of ongoing hardware sales.	Nautilus produced fitness equipment under the Nautilus, Bowflex, and Schwinn brands — the company faced severe financial challenges post-COVID and sold its brands and assets in 2023, effectively ceasing operations as a public company. NLS shares are subject to delisting and the company no longer operates as a going concern.
Investor focus	Investors track Peloton's connected fitness subscription count, average net monthly churn, average revenue per subscriber, hardware unit sales, and the company's path to sustainable free cash flow generation after significant cost restructuring post-COVID.	Nautilus is effectively no longer a going concern — it sold its Nautilus, Bowflex, and Schwinn brands in 2023 and has ceased primary operations. NLS shares have no meaningful ongoing business value and trading is speculative.

PTON strengths

Subscription model creates recurring revenue from the installed member base — even if hardware sales slow, subscription revenue continues from existing members
Strong brand equity and community — Peloton members have very high engagement with the platform and brand loyalty that reduces churn
Content library with thousands of live and on-demand classes across cycling, running, strength, yoga, and other categories creates switching costs for active users

NLS strengths

Nautilus, Bowflex, and Schwinn were well-known consumer fitness equipment brands with decades of brand history and consumer recognition
Bowflex SelectTech adjustable dumbbells became popular during COVID home fitness surge
Historical revenue scale demonstrated there was demand for at-home fitness equipment in the accessible price range below Peloton

Risks to watch — PTON

Post-COVID demand normalization has been severe — Peloton went from massive COVID-era demand to significant inventory write-downs, recurring losses, and leadership turnover
Peloton's hardware is expensive ($1,200+ for a bike) and requires financing or lump-sum payment — higher interest rates increase financing costs and reduce affordability
The fitness equipment market has multiple well-funded competitors including Apple (Fitness+), NordicTrack (iFIT), Mirror, and traditional gym competition

Risks to watch — NLS

Nautilus sold its core brands in 2023 and is no longer an operating fitness equipment company — NLS as a public entity holds minimal assets
The Schwinn brand is now owned by another entity — investors cannot access Schwinn or Bowflex brand exposure through NLS shares
This comparison is primarily of historical interest — Nautilus failed to survive the post-COVID fitness equipment demand normalization

Frequently asked questions

COVID lockdowns created an unprecedented surge in home fitness equipment demand as gyms closed and people sought workout alternatives at home. This led to a massive overproduction and inventory buildup by manufacturers including Peloton and Nautilus, as well as supply chain challenges creating fulfillment delays. When gyms reopened and pandemic spending patterns normalized, demand collapsed rapidly — leaving manufacturers with unsold inventory, high cost structures built for peak demand, and falling revenue.

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