NKE vs LULU Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Nike and Lululemon are both athletic lifestyle brands, but Nike is a global mega-cap with massive wholesale distribution and a brand built on decades of athlete marketing, while Lululemon is a premium DTC retailer with higher margins and a more focused product category. Nike is the scale play; Lululemon is the margin quality play.
The choice between Nike and Lululemon is between a global-scale brand in the midst of a strategic reset (NKE) and a premium DTC compounder with high margins and international expansion runway (LULU) — NKE offers more recovery upside; LULU offers more consistent quality.
LULU holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LULU leads on both 1-year return (-40.28%) and forward P/E quality (10.76x vs 17.28x for NKE), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, LULU is growing revenue faster (4.30%), while NKE maintains the higher operating margin (12.69%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NKE (+27.57%) than for LULU (+5.60%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want global brand scale across sports, fashion, and culture at a discounted valuation post-reset
- believe Nike's wholesale recalibration and DTC investment will rebuild margin profile
- value the Jordan brand as a separately highly valuable franchise within Nike
- are willing to wait through a multi-year strategic turnaround for a higher-quality business
- prefer premium athletic apparel with high margins driven by a DTC-first retail model
- value the international growth runway, particularly in China, as a multi-year revenue compounder
- want a brand with strong consumer loyalty reducing promotional pricing risk
- are comfortable with premium entry valuation for a higher-quality margin profile
| Metric | NKE | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 27.3 | 36.7 |
| AI ranki | #2374 | #1475 |
| Latest closei | $36.10 | $101.30 |
| 1M returni | -11.43% | -16.33% |
| 6M returni | -31.51% | -38.37% |
| 1Y returni | -49.08% | -40.28% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NKE | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.06K (-49.4%) started 2025-09-22 | $5.84K (-41.6%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $2.49K (-75.1%) started 2021-09-23 | $2.35K (-76.5%) started 2021-09-23 |
| 10Y ago | $8.05K (-19.5%) started 2016-09-23 | $15.54K (+55.4%) started 2016-09-23 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NKE | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $58.75B | $13.69B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.86 | 9.76 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.28 | 10.76 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.94 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $50.52 | $127.35 |
| Target upsidei | +27.57% | +5.60% |
| Metric | NKE | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -1.10% | 4.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 428.00% | -35.00% |
| EPS growthi | +428.00% | -35.00% |
| FCF margini | +4.07% | +10.12% |
| Operating margini | 12.69% | 11.21% |
| Profit margini | 6.70% | 13.03% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.14% | 32.03% |
| Return on equityi | 22.14% | 32.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.27% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 77.62% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.12 | 0.86 |
| Debt/equityi | 74.29 | 44.26 |
| Current ratioi | 1.96 | 2.23 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.19 | 0.94 |
Over the past year, NKE and LULU have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.40), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NKE | LULU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -49.35% | -41.58% |
| CAGRi | -49.43% | -41.65% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.38% | 45.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.82 | -1.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -2.26 | -1.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.38% | 55.54% | |
| Current drawdowni | 51.59% | 53.08% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.25% | 25.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.09% | 31.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.51% | 17.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.35% | 19.31% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -76.28% | -76.55% |
| CAGRi | -25.02% | -25.19% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.81% | 43.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.75 | -0.56 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.00 | -0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.02% | 81.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 78.68% | 80.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.10% | 38.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 49.47% | 43.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.98% | 19.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.44% | 25.32% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -27.57% | +55.39% |
| CAGRi | -3.18% | +4.51% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.57% | 41.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.07 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.10 | 0.29 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.02% | 81.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 78.68% | 80.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.80% | 23.67% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 35.36% | 32.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.98% | 23.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.44% | 30.43% |
| Category | NKE | LULU |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NIKE, Inc. | lululemon athletica inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Footwear & Accessories | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | Nike is the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company, with the Swoosh brand spanning performance sports, lifestyle, and streetwear. Revenue comes primarily from wholesale (Foot Locker, Dick's, global retailers) and its own direct-to-consumer channels (Nike.com and Nike stores). Nike's business model depends on signing high-profile athlete endorsements (LeBron, Serena, Ronaldo), launching limited-edition drops that create cultural relevance, and licensing the Swoosh across massive global distribution. | Lululemon is a premium athletic apparel brand focused on yoga, running, and fitness lifestyle, selling primarily through its own retail stores and e-commerce platform. Its vertically integrated, direct-to-consumer model generates significantly higher margins than wholesale-reliant competitors. The community-driven retail strategy — with in-store events, ambassador programs, and experiential retail — creates brand loyalty that supports premium pricing. International expansion into China and EMEA is an active growth driver. |
| Investor focus | Investors track direct-to-consumer revenue as a percentage of total (higher margins than wholesale), China recovery trajectory, footwear innovation cycle timing (Jordan brand refresh, performance running), and operating margin recovery after inventory destocking. | Investors track same-store sales growth (indicating brand health), international revenue growth (particularly China), men's category expansion, and gross margin sustainability given its premium positioning and DTC model. |
- Unmatched global brand equity in athletic footwear making Nike the default choice across sports and culture
- Jordan brand is a multi-billion dollar lifestyle franchise with limited-edition cultural relevance
- China represents a large recovering market with middle-class athletic spending growth
- Vertically integrated DTC model generates 50%+ gross margins versus mass-market competitors
- Community retail strategy builds brand loyalty and reduces reliance on paid advertising
- International markets (particularly China) represent a significant underpenetrated growth runway
- Wholesale channel destocking and inventory corrections have compressed near-term revenue
- Increasing competition from On Running, New Balance, and Hoka in performance running
- China operations are subject to geopolitical tensions and local competitive pressure from Anta and Li-Ning
- Premium pricing leaves Lululemon exposed to consumer spending slowdowns and trading down
- US same-store sales have decelerated from pandemic-era highs as the addressable market matures
- Mirror fitness hardware investment proved unsuccessful and was eventually divested
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