W vs SHOP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Wayfair and Shopify are both e-commerce companies but fundamentally different businesses. Wayfair is a direct home goods retailer competing on selection and delivery; Shopify is an e-commerce infrastructure platform providing software and financial services to merchants across all product categories. This is a retailer vs platform comparison with very different economics.
W vs SHOP is a home goods specialty retailer with cyclical demand and logistics complexity (Wayfair) versus the world's leading e-commerce merchant platform with recurring subscription revenue and financial services expansion (Shopify) — Shopify's platform model is structurally more defensible and higher-margin.
W holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. W leads on both 1-year return (+15.92%) and forward P/E quality (24.41x vs 59.15x for SHOP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. SHOP leads on both revenue growth (33.70%) and operating margin (17.55%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for W (+30.43%) than for SHOP (+17.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a speculative recovery play in home goods e-commerce if housing market activity and consumer discretionary spending recover
- value Wayfair's massive home goods selection and CastleGate logistics as defensible against physical competitors
- want home goods e-commerce exposure at a lower valuation multiple than growth platform peers
- are comfortable with cyclical exposure to housing and consumer spending, ongoing losses, and Amazon/Target competition
- prefer the world's leading e-commerce merchant platform with 2M+ merchants, high switching costs, and recurring subscription revenue
- value Shopify's financial services expansion (Payments, Capital) adding high-margin revenue on top of the core software platform
- want e-commerce infrastructure compounding as global retail continues shifting online across all merchant categories
- are comfortable with premium valuation multiples and Amazon's Buy with Prime as a competitive threat to Shopify's merchant base
| Metric | W | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.7 | 72.7 |
| AI ranki | #1211 | #31 |
| Latest closei | $102.46 | $128.50 |
| 1M returni | -4.95% | -12.33% |
| 6M returni | +34.34% | +10.04% |
| 1Y returni | +15.92% | -15.52% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | W | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.59K (+15.9%) started 2025-09-18 | $8.45K (-15.5%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $3.65K (-63.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $8.96K (-10.4%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $24.65K (+146.5%) started 2016-09-19 | $299.19K (+2891.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | W | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $12.95B | $188.28B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 98.03 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.41 | 59.15 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.19 | 13.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $123.31 | $171.15 |
| Target upsidei | +30.43% | +17.96% |
| Metric | W | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.50% | 33.70% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 68.10% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +68.10% |
| FCF margini | +3.65% | +11.97% |
| Operating margini | 3.01% | 17.55% |
| Profit margini | -2.49% | 14.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 15.54% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 15.54% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.98 | 2.62 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 1.40 |
| Current ratioi | 0.74 | 5.35 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.58 | 3.72 |
Over the past year, W and SHOP have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | W | SHOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +15.92% | -15.52% |
| CAGRi | +15.93% | -15.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 71.81% | 58.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | -0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.82 | -0.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.78% | 46.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.94% | 28.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.35% | 23.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.74% | 26.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.02% | 15.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.81% | 22.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -63.49% | -10.42% |
| CAGRi | -18.27% | -2.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 81.69% | 66.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.10 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.15 | 0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.54% | 84.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 64.09% | 28.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 73.82% | 48.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 75.86% | 53.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.68% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 42.03% | 34.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +146.54% | +2891.85% |
| CAGRi | +9.45% | +40.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 75.62% | 59.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.79 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | 1.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 93.01% | 84.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 70.34% | 28.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 48.00% | 28.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 58.80% | 38.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.68% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.34% | 34.38% |
| Category | W | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Wayfair Inc. | Shopify Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Technology |
| Industry | Internet Retail | Software - Application |
| Core business | Wayfair is the largest online-only home goods and furniture retailer in the US, with Wayfair.com, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold as its brand portfolio. Wayfair curates and sells home goods from thousands of suppliers, managing the customer experience, returns, and delivery for large-format furniture and décor. It operates CastleGate fulfillment and its own freight network for the unique challenges of large-item home goods delivery. | Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, enabling 2M+ merchants globally to build and operate online stores. Unlike Wayfair (a retailer), Shopify is pure infrastructure — it provides merchants with storefront, payments, inventory, analytics, and shipping on a subscription-plus-transaction-fee model. Shopify Payments, Shopify Capital (merchant loans), and Shopify Markets (international selling) extend the platform into financial services. |
| Investor focus | Investors track active customer count, revenue per active customer, gross margin improvement, and the path to sustained profitability after years of investment in logistics and customer acquisition. | Investors track Gross Merchandise Volume (all sales processed on Shopify), Monthly Recurring Revenue (subscription fees), Gross Payment Volume (Shopify Payments attach rate), and Shopify Capital loan originations. |
- Largest selection of home goods online — millions of SKUs across price points creates selection advantages not present in physical furniture retail
- CastleGate fulfillment and delivery network creates logistics capabilities for large-format home goods that competitors cannot easily replicate
- Home goods is a large category where online penetration was lower than average — structural shift to online furniture shopping is a multi-year tailwind
- Platform model serving 2M+ merchants creates a high switching-cost ecosystem — merchants build their entire commerce operation on Shopify and face significant migration costs
- Shopify Payments and Capital are high-margin financial services attached to the merchant relationship, expanding revenue per merchant significantly
- Enterprise (Shopify Plus) and international expansion provide sustained growth on top of the established mid-market merchant base
- Home goods spending is highly cyclical — housing market downturns, high mortgage rates, and consumer pullbacks directly reduce Wayfair sales
- Sustained losses and high cost structure from logistics investment have made GAAP profitability elusive
- Amazon, Target, and physical retailers like Williams-Sonoma are expanding online home goods — Wayfair's selection advantage erodes if competitors catch up
- Amazon's Buy with Prime and Fulfillment by Amazon offer competing solutions that can draw merchants toward Amazon's ecosystem
- High valuation (historically 30–50x revenue) reflects growth expectations — any slowdown in GMV growth is amplified in stock price
- Shopify sold its logistics business in 2023 — fulfillment remains the most complex element of merchant experience and is now largely outsourced
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.