When these companies listed, how wrong were the funds?
Private company marks publishes what registered funds carry private companies at. The obvious question is whether those numbers are any good. Some of those companies have since gone public, which means there is a real price to check them against — so here is that check, with every case shown, including the ones that make the dataset look bad.
Read that as a direction, not a precision. Three listings is not a sample you can draw a confidence interval from. What it does show is a consistent sign: in every case where the comparison is meaningful, the funds’ last valuation was below what the stock first traded at. Fund valuation committees mark conservatively, and private marks are better read as a floor than as a fair value.
The test
For each company, the last quarter before its first trading day that reached 3 funds from 2 unrelated managers — the same bar the live pages require — is compared against the first close. Only filings whose reporting period ends before the listing are used, so nothing here is graded on information it would not have had at the time.
Using the same publication bar matters more than it sounds. An earlier version graded the newest quarter whatever was in it, and for CoreWeave that was one fund reporting $1.27 while the seventeen-fund consensus of $939 a share sat in the quarter before. It would have been grading a number this site would never have shown anyone.
The comparable listings
| Company | Listed | Last fund mark | Funds | Offer | First close | Error vs close | Error vs offer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circle Internet Group CRCL | 2025-06-05 | $29.05 as of 2025-03-31 · 66d before | 9 3 managers | $31.00 | $83.23 | -65.1% | -6.3% |
| Reddit RDDT | 2024-03-21 | $31.15 as of 2023-12-31 · 81d before | 8 2 managers | $34.00 | $50.44 | -38.2% | -8.4% |
| Instacart (Maplebear) CART | 2023-09-19 | $32.50 as of 2023-06-30 · 81d before | 15 11 managers | $30.00 | $33.70 | -3.6% | +8.3% |
Negative means the funds marked the company below what it first traded at. The offer column is the IPO price from the prospectus; the close is the first trading day.
Excluded: the share count changed on the way to market
These companies split or reclassified their stock before listing, so the fund’s per-share mark and the listed share price are prices of different things. CoreWeave’s marks were 23 times its opening price — that is a share count, not a valuation error. They are shown here rather than deleted, with the ratio, so you can judge the exclusion yourself. In SpaceX’s case the evidence is in one document: a single Fidelity filing dated 2025-09-30 prices two SpaceX series at $2,120 a share and a third SpaceX line at $212, because the 10-for-1 split landed between the lines. Pooled with everything else and ignoring share counts, the median absolute error would read 71% — a number that measures corporate actions, not marking accuracy.
| Company | Listed | Last fund mark | Funds | First close | Implied ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX SPCX | 2026-06-12 | $2,120 as of 2025-09-30 | 11 | $160.95 | 13.2x filings carry both $212.00 (29 marks) and $2,120 (33) — a 10:1 split, mid-quarter |
| Figma FIG | 2025-07-31 | $26.39 as of 2025-03-31 | 4 | $115.50 | 0.2x |
| CoreWeave CRWV | 2025-03-28 | $939.85 as of 2024-12-31 | 17 | $40.00 | 23.5x |
No publishable mark at all
This is the real limit of the dataset, and it is worth more than the error table. A private company only appears on this site if a registered fund happened to own it and had to report it. Companies funded entirely by venture capital, or by a single corporate parent, are invisible here no matter how large they are — Arm was owned by SoftBank, and Roblox and Samsara were held by VC funds that file nothing.
| Company | Listed | Why there is no number |
|---|---|---|
| Klaviyo KVYO | 2023-09-20 | no pre-listing quarter reached 3 funds from 2 unrelated managers |
| Arm Holdings ARM | 2023-09-14 | no N-PORT filing before the listing mentioned the company at all |
| Roblox RBLX | 2021-03-10 | no N-PORT filing before the listing mentioned the company at all |
| Samsara IOT | 2021-12-15 | no N-PORT filing before the listing mentioned the company at all |
What this does and does not tell you
It does say that a fund mark is not a fantasy number. Where the comparison holds, the last reported consensus landed within tens of percent of the first traded price, and it did so from a quarter-end that was two to four months stale.
It does not say that a mark predicts a listing price. Three cases, all in the same direction, over two years of a rising market, is consistent with funds being conservative and equally consistent with IPO pops. Both were true in this period.
It says nothing at all about a company that never lists. The companies tested here reached the public market, which selects for the ones that went well. A private company marked down to nothing and quietly wound up contributes no row to this table, and that absence flatters every number on the page.
The company list is fixed in data/private-listing-events.json and was written before any result was known, so the set cannot quietly become the names where the marks happened to look good. New listings get added with their date, not after seeing the error.
Check one yourself
Every mark behind the table comes from a specific filing. The Circle Internet Group row above rests on 28 marks; here are the filings, largest position first.
- Fidelity Advisor Growth Opportunities Fund — $29.05 as of 2025-02-28 · CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP INC SER E · 0001752724-25-093437
- Fidelity OTC Portfolio — $27.32 as of 2025-01-31 · CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP INC SER E · 0001752724-25-076684
- Fidelity Contrafund — $29.05 as of 2025-03-31 · CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP INC SER E · 0001752724-25-121849
- Fidelity Contrafund — $29.05 as of 2025-03-31 · CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP INC SER F · 0001752724-25-121849
- Fidelity Advisor New Insights Fund — $29.05 as of 2025-03-31 · CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP INC SER E · 0001752724-25-121850
- Fidelity Balanced Fund — $29.05 as of 2025-02-28 · CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP INC SER E · 0001752724-25-093448
Next: the current marks for every company we cover, what it would take to own any of them, or the lock-up clause for each company after it lists. If you would rather work through the whole subject in order, Lesson 3 of the free Pre-IPO & IPO course is built on this table and explains why the recapitalised listings are scored separately.