ETSY vs SHOP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Etsy and Shopify both serve the independent commerce ecosystem but in fundamentally different ways. Etsy is a two-sided marketplace connecting unique goods sellers with buyers on Etsy.com. Shopify provides merchant infrastructure for businesses to sell on their own websites, social media, and marketplaces. Shopify is significantly larger, growing faster, and more financially diversified; Etsy is more niche but has a uniquely defensible inventory.
ETSY vs SHOP is a differentiated two-sided handmade goods marketplace (Etsy) versus the leading e-commerce enablement platform infrastructure company (Shopify) — Shopify is larger, faster-growing, and has stronger platform lock-in; Etsy's unique inventory creates a defensible niche that larger platforms cannot replicate.
ETSY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ETSY leads on both 1-year return (+49.11%) and forward P/E quality (12.13x vs 68.67x for SHOP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, SHOP is growing revenue faster (33.70%), while ETSY maintains the higher operating margin (18.74%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +4.13% for ETSY and +4.55% for SHOP.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a differentiated two-sided marketplace with non-commoditized handmade inventory that large platforms cannot replicate
- value Etsy's niche positioning protecting it from Amazon direct competition in unique, vintage, and handmade goods
- want marketplace exposure at lower valuation than Shopify with recovery potential as consumer discretionary normalizes
- are comfortable with GMS growth pressure and buyer retention challenges in post-COVID demand normalization
- prefer the dominant e-commerce infrastructure platform serving 2M+ merchants across all industries globally
- value Shopify Payments growing financial services revenue that scales with merchant GMV without incremental merchant acquisition cost
- want a SaaS platform with deep merchant switching costs and operating leverage improving toward sustained profitability
- are comfortable with Amazon competition and SFN logistics execution complexity as Shopify expands beyond core SaaS
| Metric | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.8 | 67.6 |
| AI ranki | #281 | #24 |
| Latest closei | $92.45 | $156.22 |
| 1M returni | +27.04% | +3.19% |
| 3M returni | +11.16% | +33.51% |
| 6M returni | +44.36% | +22.48% |
| 1Y returni | +49.11% | -10.15% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.14K (+51.4%) started 2025-11-03 | $9.03K (-9.7%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $3.86K (-61.4%) started 2021-11-03 | $10.45K (+4.5%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $83.36K (+733.6%) started 2016-11-03 | $386.59K (+3765.9%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $7.67B | $218.89B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 26.45 | 113.97 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.13 | 68.67 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.27 | 16.00 |
| Analyst targeti | $87.04 | $176.35 |
| Target upsidei | +4.13% | +4.55% |
| Metric | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.20% | 33.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -7.10% | 68.10% |
| EPS growthi | -7.10% | +68.10% |
| FCF margini | +5.77% | +11.97% |
| Operating margini | 18.74% | 17.55% |
| Profit margini | 7.11% | 14.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 15.54% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 15.54% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.82 | 2.63 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 1.40 |
| Current ratioi | 1.48 | 5.35 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.89 | 3.72 |
Over the past year, ETSY and SHOP have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.30), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +51.36% | -9.67% |
| CAGRi | +51.56% | -9.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.89% | 58.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.01 | 0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.48 | 0.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.06% | 44.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 12.83% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.97% | 21.58% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.36% | 24.66% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.24% | 15.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.91% | 22.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -61.42% | +4.47% |
| CAGRi | -17.35% | +0.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.47% | 66.79% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.15 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.21 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdowni | 86.26% | 84.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 68.86% | 12.83% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 71.60% | 48.42% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 73.01% | 53.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.83% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.83% | 34.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +733.63% | +3765.87% |
| CAGRi | +23.63% | +44.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.94% | 59.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | 0.84 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.86 | 1.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 86.26% | 84.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 68.86% | 12.83% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 41.75% | 28.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 52.89% | 38.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.15% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.34% | 34.38% |
| Category | ETSY | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Etsy, Inc. | Shopify Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Technology |
| Industry | Internet Retail | Software - Application |
| Core business | Etsy operates a global online marketplace for handmade, vintage, and craft goods connecting independent creators with buyers. Its marketplace model generates revenue from listing fees, transaction fees, payment processing, and advertising (Offsite Ads, Etsy Ads). Etsy also owns Reverb (musical instruments) and Depop (secondhand fashion). The company benefits from a differentiated, hard-to-replicate inventory of unique items that platforms like Amazon cannot easily reproduce at scale. | Shopify is the leading e-commerce enablement platform, providing merchants of all sizes with tools to build online stores, manage inventory, process payments (Shopify Payments), ship orders (Shopify Fulfillment Network), and access capital (Shopify Capital). Unlike Etsy, Shopify doesn't operate a buyer-facing marketplace — it provides the infrastructure for merchants to sell directly to consumers on their own branded storefronts. Over 2 million merchants across 175+ countries use Shopify. |
| Investor focus | Investors track gross merchandise sales (GMS) growth, active buyer retention and reactivation, seller experience improvements driving supply quality, and Etsy Ads revenue as a higher-margin growth vector. | Investors track gross merchandise volume (GMV), Shopify Payments attach rate (payment processing as a percentage of merchant GMV), merchant subscription revenue growth, and operating leverage as Shopify scales toward sustained profitability after years of heavy investment. |
- Unique, non-commoditized inventory of handmade and vintage goods creates a differentiated shopping destination that Amazon cannot easily replicate
- Two-sided marketplace with network effects — more sellers attract buyers, more buyers attract sellers — creates organic growth dynamics
- Etsy Ads (seller-funded advertising on Etsy and Google) is a high-margin revenue stream growing faster than transaction fee revenue
- The leading SaaS platform for e-commerce enablement, used by merchants from small boutiques to major brands (Kylie Cosmetics, Allbirds, Gymshark)
- Shopify Payments attach rate drives high-margin financial services revenue that scales with merchant GMV growth
- Merchant ecosystem lock-in is deep — switching an entire e-commerce operation (store, payments, inventory, shipping) away from Shopify is very costly
- GMS growth has been under pressure post-COVID as discretionary consumer spending normalized from pandemic-elevated crafts and home goods demand
- Buyer retention is the primary challenge — buyers who find Etsy for one purchase don't always return, limiting recurring purchase frequency
- Chinese marketplace competition (Temu, Shein) disrupts the affordable handcrafted goods market with factory-made alternatives at extreme price points
- Amazon continues to be the dominant e-commerce platform and offers competing merchant services (Fulfillment by Amazon) to Shopify merchants
- Operating leverage improvement requires continued discipline after years of heavy infrastructure investment — profitability must sustain as growth moderates
- Shopify's fulfillment network (SFN) investments have had mixed execution — logistics is a capital-intensive business outside core SaaS competencies
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