CMG vs MCD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Chipotle and McDonald's represent two very different fast food investment models — Chipotle is a fast-growing company-owned chain capturing full restaurant economics, while McDonald's is a mature, near-asset-light franchise royalty business generating exceptional free cash flow. CMG grows faster and reinvests aggressively; MCD returns capital to shareholders consistently and compounding on a massive installed base.
Chipotle suits growth investors who believe its throughput, digital, and international expansion can sustain above-market same-store sales for years; McDonald's suits investors who prefer the exceptional capital efficiency and global scale of the world's most recognized restaurant franchise.
MCD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CMG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-16.03% vs -17.57%), though MCD has the better forward P/E setup (18.96x vs 27.78x for CMG). On fundamentals, CMG is growing revenue faster (9.30%), while MCD maintains the higher operating margin (46.48%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MCD (+19.01%) than for CMG (+14.84%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want a high-growth fast-casual brand compounding through unit expansion and same-store sales
- value the company-owned model giving Chipotle direct control over unit economics and brand execution
- believe the digital loyalty ecosystem and throughput improvements will sustain 5%+ comp sales
- are comfortable with premium valuation for best-in-class fast-casual execution
- prefer a capital-efficient franchise royalty model generating $7B+ in annual free cash flow
- want global brand diversification across 100+ countries with a 150M+ loyalty program
- value consistent dividend growth supported by predictable royalty revenue
- are comfortable with slower growth in exchange for lower business model risk
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.9 | 49.3 |
| AI ranki | #425 | #577 |
| Latest closei | $33.43 | $248.24 |
| 1M returni | -3.55% | -7.18% |
| 6M returni | +1.49% | -19.81% |
| 1Y returni | -16.03% | -17.57% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.4K (-16.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $8.24K (-17.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $8.87K (-11.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $12.22K (+22.2%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $41.5K (+315.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $33.08K (+230.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $187.53B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 21.51 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | 18.96 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 8.55 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 8.71 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $315.39 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | +19.01% |
| Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 3.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | 5.70% |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | +5.70% |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | +22.61% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | 46.48% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 31.72% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.81% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 59.71% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.94 | 0.42 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 1.08 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 0.82 |
Over the past year, CMG and MCD have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -16.03% | -17.57% |
| CAGRi | -16.04% | -17.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.29% | 18.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.30 | -1.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.40 | -1.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.47% | 27.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 21.08% | 27.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.21% | 10.05% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.20% | 13.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 3.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 6.79% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -11.29% | +12.45% |
| CAGRi | -2.37% | +2.38% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.88% | 17.78% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.02 | -0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.03 | -0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 27.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 51.23% | 27.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.32% | 6.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.64% | 8.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 5.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 8.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +315.01% | +164.11% |
| CAGRi | +15.30% | +10.20% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.20% | 20.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 36.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 51.23% | 27.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.64% | 5.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.89% | 7.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 15.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 27.07% |
| Category | CMG | MCD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | McDonald's Corporation |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Chipotle Mexican Grill operates over 3,400 fast-casual Mexican restaurants in North America and Europe, selling burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads made with fresh, never-frozen ingredients. Unlike McDonald's franchise model, Chipotle owns the vast majority of its restaurants, directly capturing unit economics and reinvesting into restaurant throughput improvements. Its 'throughput' strategy — moving customers through the line faster — is the key lever for same-store sales growth. Digital ordering (33%+ of sales) enables loyalty rewards and reduces peak-hour friction. | McDonald's is the world's largest fast food company, operating over 40,000 restaurants in over 100 countries through a franchise model — approximately 95% are franchisee-owned. McDonald's earns revenue from franchise royalties (a percentage of franchisee sales), rent income, and company-operated stores. This near-pure-franchise model generates very high margins and free cash flow with minimal capital requirements compared to company-owned chains. The McValue platform, loyalty program, and digital ordering via the MyMcDonald's app are the primary growth initiatives. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable restaurant sales growth, new restaurant unit openings and AUV (average unit volume), digital channel mix, and restaurant-level operating margin — which reflects the unit economics of each location. | Investors track global comparable sales, US digital order penetration and loyalty member growth (McDonald's has 150M+ active loyalty members), franchisee profitability health, and capital returns via dividends and buybacks. |
- Dominant US fast-casual brand with a 'food with integrity' positioning commanding premium pricing
- Company-owned model captures full restaurant economics versus royalty-only franchise models
- Throughput improvements (Chipotlane, dual make-lines) can grow same-store sales without requiring new locations
- Asset-light franchise model generates $7B+ in annual free cash flow with minimal capex requirements
- 150M+ global loyalty members create a direct marketing channel and repeat visit mechanism
- Global scale in 100+ countries provides unmatched brand recognition and competitive barriers
- Company-owned model requires significant capital investment for new restaurant builds
- Valuation consistently at 50x+ earnings requires sustained above-average growth to justify
- Food safety incidents have historically caused temporary but significant same-store sales disruptions
- Value-oriented consumer sensitivity to price increases — McDonald's has faced value perception challenges
- Franchisee health — if franchisees face margin pressure, they may resist royalty increases or capex
- International exposure to geopolitical risks (Russia exit, Middle East boycotts) affecting sales
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.