MCD vs WEN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MCD is the world's largest and most dominant QSR chain with unmatched scale, global presence, and franchising model strength, while WEN is a well-regarded mid-size U.S. QSR with differentiated fresh beef positioning but significantly smaller scale. Both operate predominantly franchised models but at very different levels of global reach and competitive resources.
MCD vs WEN compares the world's dominant QSR franchise against a strong challenger brand, both using the franchising model but with dramatically different scale, global exposure, and competitive positioning.
MCD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MCD has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-21.40% vs -25.96%), though WEN has the better forward P/E setup (15.57x vs 18.96x for MCD). MCD leads on both revenue growth (3.70%) and operating margin (46.48%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MCD (+19.01%) than for WEN (-5.31%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the world's largest restaurant franchise with global brand dominance
- Value McDonald's extraordinarily stable royalty income stream from its vast franchised network
- Appreciate MCD's Dividend Aristocrat status and long history of consistent capital returns
- Want QSR exposure at a potentially lower valuation than the industry's dominant leader
- Believe Wendy's fresh beef differentiation and digital investment will drive market share gains
- Value WEN's meaningful dividend yield from its franchised business model
| Metric | MCD | WEN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 40.6 | 24.8 |
| AI ranki | #1049 | #2941 |
| Latest closei | $238.32 | $6.73 |
| 1M returni | -12.56% | -23.87% |
| 6M returni | -23.54% | -5.74% |
| 1Y returni | -21.40% | -25.96% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MCD | WEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.83K (-21.7%) started 2025-09-24 | $7.24K (-27.6%) started 2025-09-24 |
| 5Y ago | $11.38K (+13.8%) started 2021-09-24 | $2.95K (-70.5%) started 2021-09-24 |
| 10Y ago | $31.4K (+214.0%) started 2016-09-26 | $6.23K (-37.7%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MCD | WEN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $187.53B | $1.57B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 21.51 | 12.48 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.96 | 15.57 |
| Price/Salesi | 8.55 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.71 | 2.41 |
| Analyst targeti | $315.39 | $7.80 |
| Target upsidei | +19.01% | -5.31% |
| Metric | MCD | WEN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 3.70% | 1.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 5.70% | -40.80% |
| EPS growthi | +5.70% | -40.80% |
| FCF margini | +22.61% | +7.87% |
| Operating margini | 46.48% | 14.29% |
| Profit margini | 31.72% | 5.72% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 108.04% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 108.04% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.81% | 3.38% |
| Payout ratioi | 59.71% | 84.85% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 3380.61 |
| Current ratioi | 1.08 | 1.90 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.82 | 1.49 |
Over the past year, MCD and WEN have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.22), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MCD | WEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -21.69% | -27.56% |
| CAGRi | -21.75% | -27.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.12% | 60.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.44 | -0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.89 | -0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.12% | 35.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.12% | 29.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.29% | 17.58% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.60% | 19.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.00% | 13.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.44% | 15.10% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +4.74% | -70.52% |
| CAGRi | +0.93% | -21.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 17.88% | 36.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.11 | -0.62 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.15 | -0.92 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.12% | 74.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.12% | 72.04% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.33% | 30.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.51% | 38.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.71% | 13.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.35% | 16.99% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +150.69% | -37.69% |
| CAGRi | +9.63% | -4.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.62% | 39.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | -0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.48 | -0.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.90% | 78.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 30.12% | 76.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.48% | 25.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.78% | 33.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.88% | 28.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.07% | 58.55% |
| Category | MCD | WEN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | McDonald's Corporation | The Wendy's Company |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue, operating and franchising tens of thousands of fast food restaurants globally across more than 100 countries, with a highly franchised model (over 95% franchised) generating royalties and rent from franchisees. | Wendy's is a major U.S. and international quick service hamburger restaurant chain, franchising the majority of its locations and known for fresh, never-frozen beef burgers, Frosty desserts, and competitive breakfast and value menu offerings. |
| Investor focus | Investors track McDonald's comparable sales growth, average unit volumes at franchised locations, digital sales and loyalty program membership, and the leveraged return of capital through dividends and buybacks. | Investors track Wendy's same-restaurant sales performance, digital channel adoption and loyalty program growth, international expansion, and its franchised restaurant margin economics. |
- World's most recognized fast food brand with global franchise network creating extraordinary scale and pricing power
- Highly franchised model provides stable royalty income with capital-light growth
- Digital platform and loyalty program are driving frequency and check increases across the system
- Differentiated fresh beef positioning provides a quality perception edge versus frozen-patty fast food competitors
- Strong U.S. brand with growing digital and breakfast daypart penetration
- Highly franchised model provides capital-light royalty income similar to McDonald's
- Value perception challenges as consumer spending normalizes post-pandemic and QSR price levels have risen significantly
- Comparable sales growth has moderated from COVID-recovery peaks
- Global geopolitical exposure across 100+ countries creates some geographic risk
- Significantly smaller scale than McDonald's, limiting advertising spend, supply chain leverage, and international presence
- Has faced same-restaurant sales challenges as QSR consumer traffic has softened
- Breakfast daypart rollout has been ongoing but slower-than-hoped in conversion rates
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