NOC vs RTX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Northrop Grumman and RTX are both premier US defense contractors with large backlogs and exposure to strong defense spending trends, but they operate in very different parts of the defense ecosystem. NOC is focused on advanced stealth aircraft and space/missile defense; RTX is diversified across engines, aviation components, and guided missiles with a significant commercial aviation exposure through Collins Aerospace.
NOC is the concentrated bet on US advanced aerospace programs like B-21 and Sentinel with long production runs; RTX is the more diversified defense-plus-commercial play where missile demand and commercial aviation recovery are dual catalysts.
RTX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RTX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+22.60% vs -7.96%), though NOC has the better forward P/E setup (17.92x vs 26.95x for RTX). RTX leads on both revenue growth (14.50%) and operating margin (12.70%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NOC (+18.62%) than for RTX (+10.92%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want concentrated exposure to advanced stealth aerospace and space systems programs
- value the B-21 Raider as a decades-long production program with no competition
- prefer a primarily government-revenue business with minimal commercial cycle exposure
- believe US defense budget growth will prioritize next-generation air and space capabilities
- want diversified defense exposure across missiles, engines, and commercial aviation components
- see Patriot and AMRAAM missile backlog as a multi-year production revenue catalyst
- value Collins Aerospace commercial aftermarket as a defense-plus-aviation compounder
- believe the GTF engine inspection headwind is a temporary, resolvable near-term issue
| Metric | NOC | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.0 | 54.1 |
| AI ranki | #485 | #312 |
| Latest closei | $527.39 | $194.00 |
| 1M returni | -4.29% | -7.58% |
| 6M returni | -25.40% | -2.10% |
| 1Y returni | -7.96% | +22.60% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NOC | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.15K (-8.5%) started 2025-09-22 | $12.17K (+21.7%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $16.95K (+69.5%) started 2021-09-22 | $26.95K (+169.5%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $32.26K (+222.6%) started 2016-09-22 | $45.94K (+359.4%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NOC | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $77.51B | $285.33B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.33 | 37.34 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.92 | 26.95 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.74 | 2.27 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.15 | 3.40 |
| Analyst targeti | $647.14 | $234.82 |
| Target upsidei | +18.62% | +10.92% |
| Metric | NOC | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.10% | 14.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -5.80% | 28.70% |
| EPS growthi | -5.80% | +28.70% |
| FCF margini | +5.78% | +10.57% |
| Operating margini | 11.60% | 12.70% |
| Profit margini | 10.48% | 8.28% |
| ROIC proxyi | 26.96% | 12.27% |
| Return on equityi | 26.96% | 12.27% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.81% | 1.38% |
| Payout ratioi | 29.88% | 48.77% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | -0.11 | 0.29 |
| Debt/equityi | 95.35 | 57.02 |
| Current ratioi | 1.17 | 1.01 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.01 | 0.65 |
Over the past year, NOC and RTX have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.65), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NOC | RTX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -8.46% | +21.68% |
| CAGRi | -8.50% | +21.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.25% | 26.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.36 | 0.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.49 | 1.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.42% | 19.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 31.33% | 13.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.89% | 6.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.87% | 8.40% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.98% | 4.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.55% | 11.45% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +60.08% | +147.24% |
| CAGRi | +9.87% | +19.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.87% | 24.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.32 | 0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.45 | 1.00 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.42% | 32.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 31.33% | 13.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.83% | 7.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.56% | 9.82% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.66% | 10.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.85% | 12.34% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +179.04% | +266.87% |
| CAGRi | +10.81% | +13.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.76% | 27.94% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.50 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.38% | 51.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 31.33% | 13.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.27% | 9.37% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.17% | 13.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.66% | 14.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.45% | 26.15% |
| Category | NOC | RTX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Northrop Grumman Corporation | RTX Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Northrop Grumman is a top-tier US defense and aerospace company focused on advanced technology platforms including the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the Sentinel ICBM replacement program, space systems, and cybersecurity. Its four segments — Aeronautics, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems — are predominantly US government customers. The B-21 program is the company's most watched long-term program as it will define Northrop's revenue profile for decades. | RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) is a diversified defense and aerospace company with three segments: Collins Aerospace (aviation components and cabin systems), Pratt & Whitney (commercial and military jet engines), and Raytheon (missiles, radar, and defense electronics). Pratt & Whitney's GTF engine fleet has required extensive powder metal disk inspections, creating a major near-term operational challenge. Raytheon missiles — including Patriot and AMRAAM — have seen strong demand driven by global conflicts. |
| Investor focus | Investors track B-21 production ramp milestones, Sentinel ICBM contract progress, backlog size and composition (US vs international), and operating margin — which has been under pressure from fixed-price development program losses. | Investors track Pratt & Whitney GTF engine inspection resolution and MRO revenue from the powdered metal issue, Raytheon missile backlog (driven by Ukraine war demand and NATO restocking), and Collins Aerospace commercial aftermarket revenue growth. |
- B-21 Raider stealth bomber is a multi-decade production program with no competitive alternative
- Space Systems segment benefits from growing national security satellite and missile defense spending
- Deep integration into classified US government programs creates durable sole-source revenue
- Patriot and AMRAAM missile demand has surged with global geopolitical conflicts driving record backlogs
- Collins Aerospace commercial aftermarket benefits from high commercial aviation traffic
- Pratt & Whitney GTF engine installed base creates durable long-term MRO revenue once inspections resolve
- Fixed-price development programs (B-21 initial lots) have generated significant cost overruns
- Capital-intensive production programs require sustained government commitment and funding
- Defense budget uncertainty and continuing resolutions create program funding risk
- GTF powder metal engine inspection program is a material near-term earnings and operational headwind
- Heavy debt from the Raytheon/UTC merger limits capital return flexibility
- Raytheon missile production capacity may constrain ability to fulfill record backlogs quickly
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