NOC vs GD Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NOC is deeply focused on nuclear deterrence, space systems, and advanced classified programs — the most strategically sensitive parts of the U.S. defense budget — while GD is more diversified across submarines, vehicles, business jets, and IT services. Both are premier defense contractors with strong government relationships and long-duration program revenues.
NOC vs GD compares two complementary defense contractors with different program concentration: Northrop's nuclear and space dominance versus General Dynamics' submarine, combat vehicle, and aerospace diversification.
NOC holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. GD has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+3.67% vs -14.63%), though NOC has the better forward P/E setup (17.92x vs 20.45x for GD). On fundamentals, GD is growing revenue faster (8.10%), while NOC maintains the higher operating margin (11.60%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NOC (+18.62%) than for GD (+10.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want defense exposure through the contractor dominating nuclear deterrence and classified space programs
- Believe B-21 Raider program production ramp will drive sustained multi-decade revenue
- See NOC's classified, sole-source programs as uniquely protected from competition
- Want more diversified defense exposure spanning submarines, vehicles, business jets, and IT services
- Value Gulfstream's commercial aviation exposure as a complement to defense cyclicality
- Believe nuclear submarine production ramp for Columbia-class will drive long-term GD growth
| Metric | NOC | GD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.3 | 51.5 |
| AI ranki | #970 | #411 |
| Latest closei | $519.86 | $344.23 |
| 1M returni | -2.06% | -4.38% |
| 3M returni | -0.33% | -6.61% |
| 6M returni | -21.86% | +2.36% |
| 1Y returni | -14.63% | +3.67% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NOC | GD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.68K (-13.2%) started 2025-10-16 | $10.41K (+4.1%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $14.79K (+47.9%) started 2021-10-18 | $19.45K (+94.5%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $31.42K (+214.2%) started 2016-10-17 | $33.97K (+239.7%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NOC | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $77.51B | $102.63B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.33 | 23.14 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.92 | 20.45 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.74 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.15 | 1.96 |
| Analyst targeti | $647.14 | $420.02 |
| Target upsidei | +18.62% | +10.73% |
| Metric | NOC | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.10% | 8.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -5.80% | 13.40% |
| EPS growthi | -5.80% | +13.40% |
| FCF margini | +5.78% | +8.02% |
| Operating margini | 11.60% | 10.38% |
| Profit margini | 10.48% | 8.18% |
| ROIC proxyi | 26.96% | 17.80% |
| Return on equityi | 26.96% | 17.80% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.81% | 1.68% |
| Payout ratioi | 29.88% | 37.71% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | -0.11 | 0.33 |
| Debt/equityi | 95.35 | 35.34 |
| Current ratioi | 1.17 | 1.44 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.01 | 0.85 |
Over the past year, NOC and GD have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.61), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NOC | GD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -13.21% | +4.13% |
| CAGRi | -13.23% | +4.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.78% | 22.34% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.53 | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.74 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.35% | 17.51% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.31% | 13.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.35% | 5.20% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.75% | 6.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.98% | 4.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.55% | 6.86% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +39.62% | +79.78% |
| CAGRi | +6.91% | +12.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.06% | 20.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.35% | 22.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.31% | 13.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.35% | 6.23% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.25% | 8.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.66% | 7.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.85% | 10.82% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +171.73% | +176.38% |
| CAGRi | +10.52% | +10.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.87% | 22.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.49 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.35% | 51.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.31% | 13.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.52% | 10.88% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.53% | 14.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.66% | 10.93% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.45% | 19.06% |
| Category | NOC | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Northrop Grumman Corporation | General Dynamics Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Northrop Grumman is a leading defense technology company specializing in nuclear deterrence (B-21 Raider bomber, GBSD ICBM successor), space systems (James Webb Telescope, classified satellite programs), and cyber/intelligence solutions. | General Dynamics operates across four business segments: Aerospace (Gulfstream business jets), Marine Systems (nuclear submarines — Virginia class, Columbia class), Combat Systems (Abrams tank, Stryker), and Technologies (IT services for U.S. government). |
| Investor focus | Investors track Northrop's B-21 Raider bomber program ramp, GBSD (now Sentinel ICBM) program development, space and classified program backlog growth, and the resolution of cost overruns on certain fixed-price programs. | Investors track General Dynamics' Gulfstream business jet deliveries and backlog, nuclear submarine production ramp, army vehicle modernization programs, and the growing IT services business supporting government agencies. |
- Sole-source position on the B-21 Raider next-generation stealth bomber — the most strategically important new defense platform in a generation
- Deep expertise in classified space programs provides high-visibility revenue hidden from competitors
- Nuclear deterrence programs have extraordinary multi-decade visibility given national security priority
- Virginia-class and Columbia-class nuclear submarine programs provide decades of production visibility and sole-source positions
- Gulfstream business jets provide high-margin commercial aerospace diversification alongside government defense programs
- Army vehicle modernization and sustainment for Abrams tanks provides stable international and domestic revenue
- Fixed-price development contracts on major programs have created earnings pressure when costs exceed estimates
- Programs with strategic national importance can also carry significant development cost risk before achieving production
- Transition from development to production on key programs creates near-term financial profile complexity
- Submarine production ramp requires significant skilled workforce and supply chain capacity at Electric Boat
- Gulfstream business jet demand is tied to the economic cycle of high-net-worth and corporate customers
- IT services segment (GDIT) operates in a competitive government IT market with more commoditized margins
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