UNP vs CSX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
UNP and CSX are the dominant Class I freight railroads on opposite coasts — Union Pacific covering the western U.S. and CSX the eastern U.S. — making them complementary rather than directly competing rail investments. Both benefit from regulated franchise advantages and asset-heavy, durable competitive moats, with different commodity mix exposures.
UNP vs CSX compares the two largest U.S. freight railroad franchises by geography — west versus east — each offering durable competitive advantages but with distinct commodity mix and regional economic exposures.
UNP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CSX has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+39.45% vs +22.22%), though UNP has the better forward P/E setup (21.72x vs 22.58x for CSX). UNP leads on both revenue growth (11.50%) and operating margin (40.98%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UNP (+7.10%) than for CSX (+3.63%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the dominant western U.S. freight railroad franchise
- Value UNP's diversified commodity mix including agriculture, energy, and intermodal
- Appreciate UNP's long track record of shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks
- Want exposure to the eastern U.S. freight railroad franchise
- Value CSX's efficiency improvements under precision scheduled railroading
- See opportunity in CSX's intermodal port corridor business as East Coast ports grow
| Metric | UNP | CSX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.6 | 54.4 |
| AI ranki | #342 | #260 |
| Latest closei | $269.63 | $45.99 |
| 1M returni | -12.47% | -10.85% |
| 6M returni | +13.11% | +18.10% |
| 1Y returni | +22.22% | +39.45% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UNP | CSX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.94K (+19.4%) started 2025-09-22 | $13.85K (+38.5%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $15.7K (+57.0%) started 2021-09-23 | $16.73K (+67.3%) started 2021-09-23 |
| 10Y ago | $42.2K (+322.0%) started 2016-09-23 | $59.1K (+491.0%) started 2016-09-23 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | UNP | CSX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $182.62B | $94.99B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 24.87 | 29.81 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.72 | 22.58 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.51 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.33 | 7.79 |
| Analyst targeti | $329.25 | $53.14 |
| Target upsidei | +7.10% | +3.63% |
| Metric | UNP | CSX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.50% | 10.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 6.60% | 22.70% |
| EPS growthi | +6.60% | +22.70% |
| FCF margini | +18.58% | +13.46% |
| Operating margini | 40.98% | 38.42% |
| Profit margini | 28.85% | 22.21% |
| ROIC proxyi | 39.70% | 24.36% |
| Return on equityi | 39.70% | 24.36% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.85% | 1.09% |
| Payout ratioi | 44.70% | 31.40% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.96 | 1.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 150.77 | 138.07 |
| Current ratioi | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.76 | 0.69 |
Over the past year, UNP and CSX have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.74), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | UNP | CSX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +19.38% | +38.52% |
| CAGRi | +19.43% | +38.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.64% | 22.38% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.70 | 1.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.07 | 2.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 13.20% | 13.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.20% | 13.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.92% | 3.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.02% | 4.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.43% | 3.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.73% | 6.42% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +44.74% | +59.54% |
| CAGRi | +7.68% | +9.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.08% | 23.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.36 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.83% | 29.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.20% | 13.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.34% | 10.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.85% | 12.94% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.80% | 6.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.20% | 11.25% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +244.44% | +422.82% |
| CAGRi | +13.17% | +17.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.37% | 27.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.64 | 0.86 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.72% | 40.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.20% | 13.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.56% | 8.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.64% | 11.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.03% | 15.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.71% | 22.55% |
| Category | UNP | CSX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Union Pacific Corporation | CSX Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Railroads |
| Core business | Union Pacific operates the largest railroad network in the western United States, transporting intermodal containers, agricultural products, energy materials, chemicals, and industrial goods across 23 states west of the Mississippi River. | CSX operates one of the largest freight rail networks in the eastern United States, transporting intermodal containers, coal, chemicals, agricultural products, and other goods across a network spanning 23 states east of the Mississippi River. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Union Pacific's volume growth across intermodal, bulk, and premium segments, operating ratio trends, and its ability to sustain pricing power and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. | Investors track CSX's operating ratio, volume trends across coal, intermodal, and merchandise segments, and its ability to sustain pricing power while managing the long-term coal volume decline. |
- Dominant position as the primary Class I railroad in the western United States
- Diversified commodity mix spanning agriculture, energy, chemicals, intermodal, and industrial freight
- Long history of strong capital returns through dividends and share repurchases
- Franchise territory with no direct rail-on-rail competition for most of its eastern network
- Precision scheduled railroading model has driven significant efficiency improvements
- Strong intermodal corridor linking East Coast ports to inland distribution centers
- Agricultural freight volumes are sensitive to crop yields, export demand, and trade policy
- Intermodal competition from long-haul trucking pressures pricing in softer freight markets
- Cross-border Mexico freight is a growing but occasionally trade-policy-sensitive revenue stream
- Coal volumes face a long-term secular decline as utilities shift to natural gas and renewables
- Eastern U.S. franchise is distinct from UNP's western network, with different commodity exposures
- Network disruptions from severe weather can affect quarterly results
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