NSC vs UNP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific are major US freight railroads serving the eastern and western US respectively. Union Pacific is the larger, more geographically significant network with Pacific Coast gateway infrastructure critical for Asian import distribution. Norfolk Southern is recovering from the East Palestine derailment while focusing on operating ratio improvement. Both benefit from natural infrastructure monopoly characteristics on their specific route networks.
NSC vs UNP is the eastern US railroad in service quality improvement and East Palestine recovery mode (Norfolk Southern) versus the largest western US railroad with Pacific Coast gateway and Mexico nearshoring tailwind (Union Pacific) — eastern operational improvement story vs western railroad with structural freight tailwinds.
UNP holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. UNP leads on both 1-year return (+39.31%) and forward P/E quality (21.72x vs 24.35x for NSC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. UNP leads on both revenue growth (11.50%) and operating margin (40.98%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +4.76% for NSC and +7.10% for UNP.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer eastern US railroad with operating ratio improvement potential — NSC has more room to improve vs industry leaders than UP, creating earnings leverage
- value NSC's merchandise and intermodal freight mix with industrial economic exposure as East Palestine safety investment improves its reputation and regulatory standing
- want eastern US rail infrastructure at potentially lower valuation reflecting East Palestine overhang that may clear over time
- are comfortable with East Palestine environmental liability, operating ratio lagging industry leaders, and coal secular decline in freight mix
- prefer the largest western US railroad with irreplaceable Pacific Coast gateway infrastructure for Asian import distribution
- value Union Pacific's Mexico cross-border freight positioning for nearshoring supply chain growth as manufacturing diversifies from China
- want western US agricultural and industrial freight infrastructure compounding with the largest western railroad scale
- are comfortable with BNSF eastern route competition, agricultural volume cyclicality, and service quality management challenges during demand fluctuations
| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 50.3 | 54.5 |
| AI ranki | #321 | #287 |
| Latest closei | $345.68 | $307.00 |
| 1M returni | +8.90% | +10.32% |
| 3M returni | +2.68% | +5.41% |
| 6M returni | +10.92% | +16.55% |
| 1Y returni | +21.98% | +39.31% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.25K (+22.5%) started 2025-11-03 | $14.03K (+40.3%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $14.21K (+42.1%) started 2021-11-03 | $15.06K (+50.6%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $53.97K (+439.7%) started 2016-11-03 | $51.06K (+410.6%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $78.32B | $182.62B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 29.75 | 24.87 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.35 | 21.72 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 5.51 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.53 | 8.33 |
| Analyst targeti | $365.28 | $329.25 |
| Target upsidei | +4.76% | +7.10% |
| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 11.40% | 11.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -4.40% | 6.60% |
| EPS growthi | -4.40% | +6.60% |
| FCF margini | +11.02% | +18.58% |
| Operating margini | 35.30% | 40.98% |
| Profit margini | 21.02% | 28.85% |
| ROIC proxyi | 16.98% | 39.70% |
| Return on equityi | 16.98% | 39.70% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.55% | 1.85% |
| Payout ratioi | 45.26% | 43.37% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.27 | 0.96 |
| Debt/equityi | 105.52 | 150.77 |
| Current ratioi | 0.83 | 0.99 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.67 | 0.76 |
Over the past year, NSC and UNP have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.94), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +22.51% | +40.30% |
| CAGRi | +22.59% | +40.45% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.12% | 22.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.87 | 1.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.34 | 2.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 12.47% | 13.20% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.07% | 1.17% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.11% | 4.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.42% | 5.41% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.47% | 4.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.41% | 6.73% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +30.53% | +38.82% |
| CAGRi | +5.47% | +6.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.90% | 22.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.16 | 0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.23 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.64% | 31.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.07% | 1.17% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.16% | 12.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.89% | 14.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.47% | 6.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.79% | 12.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +347.83% | +316.75% |
| CAGRi | +16.18% | +15.35% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.51% | 25.33% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.52 | 0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.76 | 0.75 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.42% | 38.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.07% | 1.17% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.79% | 8.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.06% | 11.66% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.90% | 13.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.87% | 18.71% |
| Category | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Norfolk Southern Corporation | Union Pacific Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Railroads | Railroads |
| Core business | Norfolk Southern operates a major eastern US railroad network covering 19,500+ route miles across 22 states from the Gulf Coast to New England. NSC carries coal, chemicals, merchandise, intermodal containers, and agricultural products. NSC's eastern network connects major industrial and manufacturing centers with Atlantic seaports. The East Palestine, Ohio train derailment in February 2023 created significant environmental liability, regulatory scrutiny, and safety investment requirements for NSC. | Union Pacific operates the largest western US railroad, connecting Pacific Coast ports and the Gulf Coast through 32,000+ route miles to the Midwest and beyond. UP's Pacific gateway is critical infrastructure for distributing Asian imports across the US interior. Union Pacific serves agricultural (grain exports), energy, chemical, intermodal, and industrial freight markets. UP's Mexico connectivity through Ferromex positions it for nearshoring supply chain growth. |
| Investor focus | Investors track operating ratio, volume by freight segment, the East Palestine cleanup and liability progress, and whether NSC can improve its operating ratio to ODFL-comparable levels under new leadership. | Investors track carload volume, operating ratio, pricing yield improvement, and Mexico cross-border freight as the nearshoring supply chain opportunity. |
- Eastern US railroad monopoly on its route network — no significant rail competition on most NSC routes, with trucks as the primary alternative
- Merchandise and intermodal mix provides industrial economic exposure with less coal secular decline than CSX's coal-heavier freight mix
- Capital deployment potential — NSC's operating ratio improvement has significant room versus industry-best peers, creating earnings leverage as efficiency improves
- Pacific Coast gateway monopoly for its specific routes — distributing Asian imports from LA/Long Beach and Seattle to the US interior requires Union Pacific's network
- Mexico nearshoring supply chain growth is a structural tailwind — as manufacturing moves from China to Mexico, UP's border crossing infrastructure captures cross-border freight
- Large-scale agricultural export corridor from the Midwest to Pacific ports serves US grain export markets to Asia
- East Palestine derailment created environmental liability, reputational damage, and regulatory requirements for increased safety investment — affecting operating costs and reputation
- NSC operating ratio has historically lagged CSX and industry leaders — activist investors have pushed for operational improvement
- Coal volume secular decline is ongoing — power plant coal demand falling with natural gas and renewable energy displacement
- BNSF (Berkshire Hathaway) competes on some western US corridors — not a single monopoly everywhere like eastern railroads face more competition
- Service quality and operating ratio improvements have been inconsistent — UP has faced criticism from shippers over service reliability periods
- Agricultural export volumes cyclical — dependent on global commodity prices and South American harvest competition
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