LIVE
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation · Industrials
$300.08
-5.69% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials
$256.88
-5.41% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
NSC
2
UNP
3
Comparison scoreboard
UNP LEADS 3/5AI Score
NSC ✓51.0
UNP 50.6
1Y Return
NSC ✓+19.83%
UNP +16.45%
Fwd P/E
NSC 23.17
UNP ✓19.90
Target Up.
NSC +6.94%
UNP ✓+6.98%
Op. Margin
NSC 32.26%
UNP ✓40.36%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
NSC vs UNP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific are major US freight railroads serving the eastern and western US respectively. Union Pacific is the larger, more geographically significant network with Pacific Coast gateway infrastructure critical for Asian import distribution. Norfolk Southern is recovering from the East Palestine derailment while focusing on operating ratio improvement. Both benefit from natural infrastructure monopoly characteristics on their specific route networks.
NSC vs UNP is the eastern US railroad in service quality improvement and East Palestine recovery mode (Norfolk Southern) versus the largest western US railroad with Pacific Coast gateway and Mexico nearshoring tailwind (Union Pacific) — eastern operational improvement story vs western railroad with structural freight tailwinds.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
UNP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NSC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+19.83% vs +16.45%), though UNP trades at the lower forward P/E (19.90x vs 23.17x). UNP leads on both revenue growth (3.20%) and operating margin (40.36%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +6.94% for NSC and +6.98% for UNP.
Normalized 1Y performance
NSC
UNP
Recent returns
NSC
UNP
Analyst price targets & sentiment
NSC
Price target range
analyst mean$335.71
current price$300.08
+6.9% upside to analyst mean
UNP · 27 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.1/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$202.00
analyst mean$291.73
current price$256.88
+7.0% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
NSC may suit investors who:
- →prefer eastern US railroad with operating ratio improvement potential — NSC has more room to improve vs industry leaders than UP, creating earnings leverage
- →value NSC's merchandise and intermodal freight mix with industrial economic exposure as East Palestine safety investment improves its reputation and regulatory standing
- →want eastern US rail infrastructure at potentially lower valuation reflecting East Palestine overhang that may clear over time
- →are comfortable with East Palestine environmental liability, operating ratio lagging industry leaders, and coal secular decline in freight mix
UNP may suit investors who:
- →prefer the largest western US railroad with irreplaceable Pacific Coast gateway infrastructure for Asian import distribution
- →value Union Pacific's Mexico cross-border freight positioning for nearshoring supply chain growth as manufacturing diversifies from China
- →want western US agricultural and industrial freight infrastructure compounding with the largest western railroad scale
- →are comfortable with BNSF eastern route competition, agricultural volume cyclicality, and service quality management challenges during demand fluctuations
Performance & AI score
| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 51.0 | 50.6 |
| AI rank | #398 | #430 |
| Latest close | $300.08 | $256.88 |
| 1M return | -5.69% | -5.41% |
| 6M return | +1.92% | +8.51% |
| 1Y return | +19.83% | +16.45% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.86K (+18.6%) started 2025-06-18 | $11.57K (+15.7%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $13.52K (+35.2%) started 2021-06-21 | $14.02K (+40.2%) started 2021-06-21 |
| 10Y ago | $51.66K (+416.6%) started 2016-06-20 | $43.61K (+336.1%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $70.5B | $161.91B |
| Trailing P/E | 26.45 | 22.43 |
| Forward P/E | 23.17 | 19.90 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 5.51 |
| EV/Revenue | 7.12 | 7.79 |
| Analyst target | $335.71 | $291.73 |
| Target upside | +6.94% | +6.98% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 0.20% | 3.20% |
| Earnings growth | -26.60% | 6.20% |
| EPS growth | -26.60% | +6.20% |
| FCF margin | +10.66% | +16.33% |
| Operating margin | 32.26% | 40.36% |
| Profit margin | 21.91% | 29.20% |
| ROIC proxy | 17.61% | 40.69% |
| Return on equity | 17.61% | 40.69% |
| Dividend yield | 1.72% | 2.02% |
| Beta | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| Debt/equity | 111.59 | 162.25 |
| Current ratio | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| Quick ratio | 0.74 | 0.66 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
NSC max drawdown12.47%
UNP max drawdown12.28%
NSC max wkly drop6.38%
UNP max wkly drop6.19%
5Y risk snapshot
NSC max drawdown35.64%
UNP max drawdown31.83%
NSC max wkly drop12.79%
UNP max wkly drop12.20%
10Y risk snapshot
NSC max drawdown44.42%
UNP max drawdown38.72%
NSC max wkly drop23.87%
UNP max wkly drop18.71%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +18.64% | +15.71% |
| CAGR | +18.67% | +15.73% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.73 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdown | 12.47% | 12.28% | |
| Max daily drop | 5.47% | 4.54% | |
| Max wkly drop | 6.38% | 6.19% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +23.62% | +28.50% |
| CAGR | +4.34% | +5.15% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.12 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdown | 35.64% | 31.83% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.47% | 6.80% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.79% | 12.20% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +322.00% | +253.45% |
| CAGR | +15.50% | +13.47% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.50 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdown | 44.42% | 38.72% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.90% | 13.03% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.87% | 18.71% |
Business comparison
| Category | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Norfolk Southern Corporation | Union Pacific Corporation |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | N/A | Railroads |
| Core business | Norfolk Southern operates a major eastern US railroad network covering 19,500+ route miles across 22 states from the Gulf Coast to New England. NSC carries coal, chemicals, merchandise, intermodal containers, and agricultural products. NSC's eastern network connects major industrial and manufacturing centers with Atlantic seaports. The East Palestine, Ohio train derailment in February 2023 created significant environmental liability, regulatory scrutiny, and safety investment requirements for NSC. | Union Pacific operates the largest western US railroad, connecting Pacific Coast ports and the Gulf Coast through 32,000+ route miles to the Midwest and beyond. UP's Pacific gateway is critical infrastructure for distributing Asian imports across the US interior. Union Pacific serves agricultural (grain exports), energy, chemical, intermodal, and industrial freight markets. UP's Mexico connectivity through Ferromex positions it for nearshoring supply chain growth. |
| Investor focus | Investors track operating ratio, volume by freight segment, the East Palestine cleanup and liability progress, and whether NSC can improve its operating ratio to ODFL-comparable levels under new leadership. | Investors track carload volume, operating ratio, pricing yield improvement, and Mexico cross-border freight as the nearshoring supply chain opportunity. |
NSC strengths
- →Eastern US railroad monopoly on its route network — no significant rail competition on most NSC routes, with trucks as the primary alternative
- →Merchandise and intermodal mix provides industrial economic exposure with less coal secular decline than CSX's coal-heavier freight mix
- →Capital deployment potential — NSC's operating ratio improvement has significant room versus industry-best peers, creating earnings leverage as efficiency improves
UNP strengths
- →Pacific Coast gateway monopoly for its specific routes — distributing Asian imports from LA/Long Beach and Seattle to the US interior requires Union Pacific's network
- →Mexico nearshoring supply chain growth is a structural tailwind — as manufacturing moves from China to Mexico, UP's border crossing infrastructure captures cross-border freight
- →Large-scale agricultural export corridor from the Midwest to Pacific ports serves US grain export markets to Asia
Risks to watch — NSC
- →East Palestine derailment created environmental liability, reputational damage, and regulatory requirements for increased safety investment — affecting operating costs and reputation
- →NSC operating ratio has historically lagged CSX and industry leaders — activist investors have pushed for operational improvement
- →Coal volume secular decline is ongoing — power plant coal demand falling with natural gas and renewable energy displacement
Risks to watch — UNP
- →BNSF (Berkshire Hathaway) competes on some western US corridors — not a single monopoly everywhere like eastern railroads face more competition
- →Service quality and operating ratio improvements have been inconsistent — UP has faced criticism from shippers over service reliability periods
- →Agricultural export volumes cyclical — dependent on global commodity prices and South American harvest competition
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