MRK vs BMY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb are both large-cap pharmaceutical companies heavily dependent on cancer immunotherapy (Keytruda for Merck, Opdivo for BMY). Merck's Keytruda is significantly larger and more commercially dominant, while BMY has greater patent cliff complexity from Revlimid generics in addition to eventual Opdivo biosimilar pressure. Both are dividend payers navigating near-term revenue cliffs with diversified pipeline investments.
MRK vs BMY is a comparison between the Keytruda oncology leader facing a 2028 patent cliff (Merck) and a biopharma company managing through the already-in-progress Revlimid cliff with Eliquis as a durable non-oncology anchor (BMY) — Merck has the stronger near-term earnings visibility; BMY has already endured the first wave of LOE pressure.
MRK holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRK has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+80.19% vs +40.07%), though BMY has the better forward P/E setup (10.15x vs 15.55x for MRK). BMY leads on both revenue growth (5.70%) and operating margin (34.42%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +0.26% for MRK and -0.56% for BMY.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the dominant cancer immunotherapy franchise (Keytruda) with 30+ approvals and multi-year growth runway before 2028 LOE
- value Gardasil and Winrevair as diversified revenue streams reducing Keytruda concentration risk
- want dividend income from a large-cap pharma with strong current earnings and ADC pipeline as a future catalyst
- are comfortable with Keytruda 2028 patent cliff as the primary long-term investment risk requiring pipeline execution
- prefer a pharma value investment navigating known patent cliffs (Revlimid) with Eliquis and cell therapy providing durable revenue
- value Camzyos and Sotyktu as new product launches in growing cardiovascular and dermatology markets
- want dividend income from a large-cap pharma at below-sector P/E reflecting patent cliff overhang and debt
- are comfortable with Revlimid erosion pace and Celgene acquisition leverage limiting near-term capital allocation flexibility
| Metric | MRK | BMY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.4 | 40.5 |
| AI ranki | #455 | #1136 |
| Latest closei | $146.87 | $63.06 |
| 1M returni | -3.72% | -5.89% |
| 6M returni | +28.63% | +9.71% |
| 1Y returni | +80.19% | +40.07% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MRK | BMY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.27K (+82.7%) started 2025-09-22 | $14.02K (+40.2%) started 2025-09-22 |
| 5Y ago | $25.23K (+152.3%) started 2021-09-22 | $14.15K (+41.5%) started 2021-09-22 |
| 10Y ago | $42.23K (+322.3%) started 2016-09-22 | $21.01K (+110.1%) started 2016-09-22 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MRK | BMY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $366B | $136B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 118.68 | 14.67 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.55 | 10.15 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.10 | 2.07 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.20 | 3.46 |
| Analyst targeti | $148.73 | $66.21 |
| Target upsidei | +0.26% | -0.56% |
| Metric | MRK | BMY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.10% | 5.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -19.30% | 153.10% |
| EPS growthi | -19.30% | +153.10% |
| FCF margini | +22.79% | +16.50% |
| Operating margini | -0.24% | 34.42% |
| Profit margini | 4.77% | 18.87% |
| ROIC proxyi | 6.96% | 46.60% |
| Return on equityi | 6.96% | 46.60% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.29% | 3.76% |
| Payout ratioi | 268.80% | 55.29% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Debt/equityi | 128.41 | 201.86 |
| Current ratioi | 1.32 | 1.53 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.74 | 1.29 |
Over the past year, MRK and BMY have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.48), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MRK | BMY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +82.67% | +40.20% |
| CAGRi | +83.24% | +40.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.49% | 27.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.00 | 1.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.77 | 1.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 11.90% | 13.42% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 7.39% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.61% | 4.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.68% | 5.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.06% | 4.07% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.49% | 7.58% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +126.26% | +21.17% |
| CAGRi | +17.75% | +3.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.95% | 24.65% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.44% | 47.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 13.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.58% | 21.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.29% | 24.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.86% | 8.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.42% | 11.78% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +215.69% | +49.72% |
| CAGRi | +12.19% | +4.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.35% | 24.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.44% | 47.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 13.57% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.83% | 16.70% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.74% | 20.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.86% | 13.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.71% | 17.10% |
| Category | MRK | BMY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Merck & Co., Inc. | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Merck is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, with its primary growth driver being Keytruda (pembrolizumab), the most widely prescribed cancer immunotherapy globally, approved in 30+ cancer types. Beyond oncology, Merck sells Gardasil (HPV vaccine), Januvia (diabetes), and Winrevair (pulmonary arterial hypertension). Keytruda faces US patent expiration beginning around 2028, creating a significant revenue cliff that Merck's pipeline (MRTX849, MK-2870 ADC, Winrevair) must partially offset. | Bristol-Myers Squibb is a large pharmaceutical company with major franchise drugs including Opdivo (nivolumab, PD-1 inhibitor for cancers), Eliquis (apixaban, anticoagulant co-marketed with Pfizer), Revlimid (lenalidomide for multiple myeloma, now losing exclusivity), and Breyanzi/Abecma (cell therapies). BMY has faced significant patent cliff pressure as Revlimid loses exclusivity and Opdivo faces biosimilar threat in the 2026–2028 timeframe. BMY has been managing through large M&A (Celgene) and new launches (Camzyos, Sotyktu). |
| Investor focus | Investors track Keytruda revenue and new indication approvals, Gardasil sales recovery (particularly in China), Winrevair launch trajectory, ADC pipeline (MK-2870), and the Keytruda 2028 patent cliff mitigation strategy through subcutaneous formulation and new indications. | Investors track the Revlimid generic erosion pace, Opdivo sales vs biosimilar threat, Eliquis revenue sustainability, new product launches (Camzyos for HCM, Sotyktu for psoriasis, Reblozyl for MDS), and net debt management from the Celgene acquisition leverage. |
- Keytruda is the most widely prescribed cancer immunotherapy with first-line approvals across the most common cancer types globally
- Winrevair (sotatercept) is a best-in-class PAH drug with differentiated mechanism approved in a large and underserved cardiovascular market
- Gardasil HPV vaccine is a multi-decade global public health franchise with strong growth in emerging markets
- Opdivo (PD-1 inhibitor) competes with Keytruda across many cancer types and maintains strong revenue despite Keytruda's dominance
- Eliquis (with Pfizer) is the world's most prescribed oral anticoagulant and an extremely durable revenue stream
- Camzyos for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and Reblozyl for MDS/beta-thalassemia represent growing new product revenue
- Keytruda patent cliff in 2028 creates a massive revenue risk as the drug represents 40%+ of Merck's revenue
- Gardasil China demand has been volatile due to regulatory and reimbursement policy changes
- Pipeline must generate significant new revenue to offset Keytruda LOE — ADC assets and Winrevair are the primary candidates
- Revlimid generics have significantly reduced revenue from the former Celgene blockbuster — the pace of erosion is a key tracking item
- Net debt from the Celgene acquisition has limited BMY's M&A flexibility and capital return capacity vs. peers
- Opdivo PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor faces biosimilar competition beginning mid-2020s, creating another revenue cliff
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